http://www.realcentralva.com/2007/04/17/1st-quarter-market-report-released-for-charlottesville-area/ Tracking Charlottesville's Real Estate Market since 2005 Mon, 13 Feb 2012 12:10:41 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= http://www.realcentralva.com/2007/04/17/1st-quarter-market-report-released-for-charlottesville-area/#comment-7127 Real Central VA - Tracking the Charlottesville and Central VA real estate market and more » Buy now in the Charlottesville market or wait? Fri, 27 Apr 2007 12:35:21 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2007/04/16/1st-quarter-market-report-released-for-charlottesville-area/#comment-7127 [...] Buy now in the Charlottesville market or wait? By Jim Duncan Question from a reader: My sense of the housing market is that we have seen the biggest run-up in prices from the late 1990s to the present in the past 100 years (e.g. this NYTimes graphic). The market has started to soften, but like prior real estate slumps, housing prices will decline or be flat for several years to come. Nothing can go up 15-20% in value each year forever.  The collapse of the subprime mortgage market is just one piece of evidence that the market has changed.  And, I do not think Charlottesville is immune from the nationwide real estate slump; in fact, the data–e.g., record inventories, homes staying on the market for 6-9 months or more, etc.–confirm my suspicions.  So, I am keenly concerned about not overpaying for a house in this market.  I am glad to continue renting if sellers are unwilling to lower their prices to account for the fact that the market has changed and real estate prices are unlikely to appreciate much in the near future (see, for example, the recent New York Times aricle entitled “A Word of Advice During a Housing Slump: Rent“).  Owners enjoyed the run-up in prices/equity during the housing boom; now, they have to endure the decline in prices/equity during the inevitable slump.  However, I am also glad to buy a house tomorrow–if, and only if, the price is reasonable.  The fact that inventories keep growing but that prices are not declining very much leads me to conclude that most prices being offered today are not at all reasonable.  I realize that most sellers are probably not going to accept an offer well below their asking price all at once; rather, they are probably going to reduce their asking prices gradually until someone makes an offer reasonably close to what they are asking. However, many of the homes in the MLS are priced well over assessment–in fact, quite a few are priced $100,000 or $150,000 (or more) over assessment.  I know assessments are a mixed bag, but a quick check of the 2007 sales data for Albemarle County shows that approximately as many homes have sold below assessment as have sold above assessment for the price range we are considering.  The NAR is predicting a decline in home prices this year for the first time in 40+ years.  And, the CAAR market report shows prices declining in the Charlottesville area, as well. [...] [...] Buy now in the Charlottesville market or wait? By Jim Duncan Question from a reader: My sense of the housing market is that we have seen the biggest run-up in prices from the late 1990s to the present in the past 100 years (e.g. this NYTimes graphic). The market has started to soften, but like prior real estate slumps, housing prices will decline or be flat for several years to come. Nothing can go up 15-20% in value each year forever.  The collapse of the subprime mortgage market is just one piece of evidence that the market has changed.  And, I do not think Charlottesville is immune from the nationwide real estate slump; in fact, the data–e.g., record inventories, homes staying on the market for 6-9 months or more, etc.–confirm my suspicions.  So, I am keenly concerned about not overpaying for a house in this market.  I am glad to continue renting if sellers are unwilling to lower their prices to account for the fact that the market has changed and real estate prices are unlikely to appreciate much in the near future (see, for example, the recent New York Times aricle entitled “A Word of Advice During a Housing Slump: Rent“).  Owners enjoyed the run-up in prices/equity during the housing boom; now, they have to endure the decline in prices/equity during the inevitable slump.  However, I am also glad to buy a house tomorrow–if, and only if, the price is reasonable.  The fact that inventories keep growing but that prices are not declining very much leads me to conclude that most prices being offered today are not at all reasonable.  I realize that most sellers are probably not going to accept an offer well below their asking price all at once; rather, they are probably going to reduce their asking prices gradually until someone makes an offer reasonably close to what they are asking. However, many of the homes in the MLS are priced well over assessment–in fact, quite a few are priced $100,000 or $150,000 (or more) over assessment.  I know assessments are a mixed bag, but a quick check of the 2007 sales data for Albemarle County shows that approximately as many homes have sold below assessment as have sold above assessment for the price range we are considering.  The NAR is predicting a decline in home prices this year for the first time in 40+ years.  And, the CAAR market report shows prices declining in the Charlottesville area, as well. [...]

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