Nearly mid-year market data for Charlottesville and Albemarle

Courtney Stuart has a very good article in this week’s HooK. Not that she needs it, but she deserves credit for presenting an accurate, non-threatening/non-emotional picture of the current real estate market in the Charlottesville/Albemarle region.

“There’s an awful lot of inventory,” says real estate agent Jim Duncan, who analyzes the house-for-sale scene on his blog, realcentralva.com. Indeed, at the end of  April, more than 1,100 properties were listed on the market in Charlottesville and Albemarle. By May 29– Hook press time– the number had soared to over 1,400. That’s about 600 more than at the same time in the hot market of 2005.

Making the picture even darker for sellers: average days on market in April was 120, up from just 66 days in April 2005, when sales were blazing. More than twice the inventory, and nearly twice as long to sell it. But Duncan insists those ominous numbers don’t spell doom.

In CharlAlbemarle -

2004 residential properties have been listed since the first of the year. Of those, 663 have gone under contract, or one-third. Spun negatively, 2/3 of the properties that have come on the market this year are still on the market . Taking the list date out of the equation, 1088 residential properties have gone under contract so far this year (just in Charlottesville/Albemarle)

2005 numbers for Charlottesville and Albemarle
2006 numbers for Charlottesville and Albemarle
2007 numbers for Charlottesville and Albemarle

There is more accumulated inventory in the market right now. Properties are selling, but at a slower rate that we are used to.

* NB: for the month of May, I went only to the 30th rather than 31st for consistency’s sake.
* NB: all residential properties are included, including condos.

** big note: In this PDF showing inventory history, “Current Inventory” is apparently defined as Active and Contingent properties. When I ran the above numbers, I omitted the Contingent properties.

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Get involved, darn it

Good article today in the HooK about bicycle commuting in the Charlottesville area. One thing that struck me was this -

None of the bicyclists interviewed for this article, for example, are members of The Alliance for Community Choice in Transportation, the Charlottesville Area Bicyclists Association, BikeWalk Virginia, or other groups trying to “think globally and act locally” about how automobile transportation affects national and international issues.

Without, therefore, the political muscle of say, the AAA, could muscle-powered transportation be getting short shrift in the political world? Government money for roads and bridges carries a lot of zeroes.

To effect change, it’s important to align with the local groups advocating for change. A bunch of individual voices is just that - relatively ineffective individual voices. Joined together,

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When do we call it a disaster?

Not yet. I got a headache as soon as this question was asked of me the other day when being interviewed for a local real estate market update. One of the reasons that I write this blog is to provide data analysis to help provide a clear and honest picture of the Charlottesville-area real estate market - with no agenda.

Media is no longer a vacuum. There is accountability for reporters’ words thanks in large part to the blogs - and this is a good thing. Robert Scoble had a particularly interesting post, and more importantly, discussion, about fact-checking in today’s world.

More on the above-mentioned story as soon as it’s online.

Side note: I was speaking yesterday to a Realtor from Culpeper, about 45 minutes north of Charlottesville and more closely related to the Northern Virginia market; he said that in one neighborhood there, there are 30 foreclosures. Our market is not even remotely similar to that.

Related reading: ‘Subprime’ Aftermath: Losing the Family Home

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Staging your home

With Barbara Corcoran. Simple but effective tips in this series this week on the Today Show. There is opportunity in every market. Before, it was how to deal with rapidly rising prices; now it is how to market your home effectively.

Wednesday links 05-30-2007

More on Fortiusone, a combination of maps, data and heat maps

Developers, environmentalists and government officials travel from Charlottesville to Chapel Hill

How much will a 3,000 unit development cost the school system?

For Better or Worse - 05-27-2007 (From fbofw.com)

Designing for equity

Population caps in Albemarle County?

Carnival of real estate #44

Is up at the North Fulton County real estate blog.

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Century 21’s new ad

Seems to be targeting Redfin?

Despite the comment, “to watch your eyes when you walk into a home, and know right away that you are in love with it” … it’s a decent ad. Buying and selling residential real estate is an emotional process, but a good Realtor should focus on removing the emotions from the equation - managing buyers’ emotions is sometimes difficult, and if a buyer “loves” a home, sometimes it is more challenging to manage those emotions.

A better campaign would be one that identified the project/transaction management aspects of a real estate transaction and removing the emotional aspects of negotiations. Speaking from personal experience, having a buffer between Buyer and Seller can be extremely valuable - both from an emotional and financial perspective.

Either way, this is a step up from the Century 21 commercial last year with the pushy agent.

Note: I work at a Century 21 office (not for, as Realtors are Independent Contractors, thus are self-employed)

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Free rides in the City

USA Today notes how the City of Charlottesville is considering eliminating fares on the buses. Cvillenews had great discussions months ago.

Until three things happen -

1) The buses stop stopping on at the bottom of the hill at the Emmet Street/Angus Road intersection during rush hour, and staying stopped for five to seven minutes. (getting people to use transit is part marketing against the perception that the buses are inefficient, and this is a testament to the system’s inefficiency) 
2) Buses run when people need them to run, rather than closing on Memorial Day (people without cars still don’t have cars on holidays!)
3) The buses go (at least as fast as a car would take them) where people need to go.

- the Charlottesville transit system will remain inadequate for most.

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