My Predictions for 2007 post.

Last year I argued that we are in the midst of two distinct real estate cycles.
Also,
Is there a market cap on Charlottesville prices?
and – My “maybe” answer from 2005.

Thanks for the comment.

First, let me second your thought about NAR and expand a little bit – I think that their constant rosy predictions over the past 8-12 months have done significant damage to their, and to a certain but lesser degree my, credibility. I noted their “great time to buy or sell” campaign last year.

I’m optimistic for a couple of reasons, including those you mention.

- UVA
- low unemployment
- NGIC
- Wal-Mart
- State Farm
- SNL
- the large number of small businesses, tech and the like that contribute enormously to our economy and culture.
- That our region is a “destination” for many

I think that there has been too much new construction – across all price ranges. As these get absorbed, we may (should?) return to a more sustainable level of real estate.

Regarding the outlying areas, I’d agree to certain degree. I see that more people are trending towards urbanized centers.

I can’t tell you how impressed I am with myself that I was able to find this story in my feed reader – I distrust much of what the UN does and saays, but I’ll cherry pick this article – Half the World soon to be in Cities.

2. Home sales and prices will continue to rise at a more “normal” level – perhaps a 5-7% increase in value YoY rather than 15-20% increase in value. This qualifies as a “good thing.”

3. There will be fewer “discretionary” moves and “move-ups.”