Comments on: Charlottesville area real estate market update – 1st Quarter 2008

By: 2nd Quarter Market Update for Charlottesville Region | Real Central VA

2nd Quarter Market Update for Charlottesville Region | Real Central VA — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:44:05 +0000

[...] – I think that the calls for the proverbial “bottom” are premature. When I was a kid I wouldn’t know the bottom of the swimming hole until my toes dug down into the muck and I was heading rapidly back to the surface. Our current market is very much the same. We won’t know when we hit bottom until we have the benefit of 18 months of hindsight – or, to continue the swimming hole metaphor, until we’ve crawled out and told our friends – holy cow! It’s really deep! April 2008 [...]

By: cVillain » Blog Archive » 7 Awesome Articles from around the Charlottesville Internet

Thu, 17 Apr 2008 12:30:12 +0000

[...] 3. Local Real Estate Analysis by Jim Duncan. Our resident expert on local real, Jim gives us a much needed slap to the face. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Daily Progress story about record housing inventory resulted from Jim’s diligence and research associated with an analysis of early 2008 Charlottesville real es… [...]

By: “Official” Real estate Market report for Charlottesville area | Real Central VA

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 10:43:54 +0000

[...] is my market report for the City of Waynesboro and Augusta County and this is the market report I wrote last Monday focused on the Central Virginia real estate market; my market report is more focused on the Charlottesville market area – Charlottesville/Albemarle, [...]

By: Jim Duncan

Jim Duncan — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 12:27:45 +0000

Reno –

I noted it in another story, and a commenter noted it as well. It’s a great analysis of unrealistic sellers.

Scott – I’m hoping the podcast will be up today or tomorrow.

By: Reno

Reno — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 19:28:30 +0000

I’m not sure if you’ve already written about it, but “A Reality Check for Home Sellers” by Austan Goolsbee in the NY Times goes straight to the heart of the problem.

By: Scott

Scott — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 19:03:26 +0000

Jim -

Thanks for the great update – I’ll have to wait for the podcast to hear the show, but it’s very nice of you to put the numbers out there.

WRT pricing – I think you’re absolutely correct that sellers have to move on from denial to acceptance. Of course, many have made that adjustment and are not able to move on. The ‘foreclosure crisis’ hasn’t hit here yet, and it may never be as bad as it is many places, but it will continue to exert serious longterm downward price pressure. I think people here – and that includes the banks who have REO on their books – will not be back to reality until they accept that prices are really headed back to 2004.

The bubble in RE prices is only a symptom or secondary effect of the poor underwriting practices over the past 7-8 years. Even if the credit markets unfreeze and MBSes start to trade again, the underwriting will be more stringent. Without access to the cheap high leverage, buyers just cannot afford the higher prices. If we fall to ‘03-’04 levels, prices will be back in line with documented incomes, as measured by traditional underwriting guidelines.

Heh…now that Yun is retiring, I think I’ll apply for his job…this RE prognosticating is pretty fun. Anyway…there’s my prediction!