Comments on: Where’s Charlottesville in the Case-Shiller index? http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/ Tracking Charlottesville's Real Estate Market since 2005 Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:56:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Case Schiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville Real Estate Market | | RealCentralVA.comRealCentralVA.com http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-33042 Case Schiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville Real Estate Market | | RealCentralVA.comRealCentralVA.com Wed, 30 Nov 2011 16:36:21 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-33042 [...] I wrote in early 2008 that … “The Charlottesville/Central Virginia/Shenandoah Valley markets are not covered by the Case-Shiller index. Real estate is local; while trends may be drawn from this type of research, and while the proverbial turned-corner may still be just over the horizon, it’s important to put his study in the appropriate context. …” [...] [...] I wrote in early 2008 that … “The Charlottesville/Central Virginia/Shenandoah Valley markets are not covered by the Case-Shiller index. Real estate is local; while trends may be drawn from this type of research, and while the proverbial turned-corner may still be just over the horizon, it’s important to put his study in the appropriate context. …” [...]

]]> By: matt s. http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-15838 matt s. Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:32:00 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-15838 Hmmm.., seems you messed up the link to the "best localized market analysis.' You want to see into the future? You need to do more than just trying to extrapolate from RE sales data. What are the inputs that gave us our local RE boom, and are they they still there to prop up prices? The only legitimate input is rising wages and income. The other two are loose lending policies and Ponzi-style inflation of prices. The last two are gone, can we count on the first? I don't have data on local wages, but when I see people tout our immunity to the national economic situation, they invariably cite two things, our UVA anchor, and various federal agencies and contractors in the area. While those are strong economic drivers, they also mean we are highly dependent on state and federal government funding, and we know state and federal (and local) govt. income is down this year, which leads to budgets squeezes. On top of that, many expenses are rising rapidly. Remember what happened in 2002? UVA hiring freezes. Local schoolteachers not getting raises. UVA researchers and academics are reportedly worried about what happens when their current grants run out. How is UVA's Capital Campaign doing? Haven't seen any press releases from them for a year. They do seem to have a brilliant fund manager though, it will be interesting to see how he does this year. This area is simply not an independent socialist republic, though some call it that. There is no way that we are immune to these massive tides. The only hope has been that this economic mess would be over by now, but it certainly is not. If you would like to scare the sh** out of yourself some more, read Mr. Mortgage (and watch his youtube vids): http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/ boombust blog is good too: http://boombustblog.com/ forewarned is forearmed... ........... "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." -- Thomas Jefferson, Letter 1802 to Secretary of the Treasury, Albert Gallatin Hmmm.., seems you messed up the link to the “best localized market analysis.’

You want to see into the future? You need to do more than just trying to extrapolate from RE sales data. What are the inputs that gave us our local RE boom, and are they they still there to prop up prices? The only legitimate input is rising wages and income. The other two are loose lending policies and Ponzi-style inflation of prices.

The last two are gone, can we count on the first? I don’t have data on local wages, but when I see people tout our immunity to the national economic situation, they invariably cite two things, our UVA anchor, and various federal agencies and contractors in the area.

While those are strong economic drivers, they also mean we are highly dependent on state and federal government funding, and we know state and federal (and local) govt. income is down this year, which leads to budgets squeezes. On top of that, many expenses are rising rapidly. Remember what happened in 2002? UVA hiring freezes. Local schoolteachers not getting raises.

UVA researchers and academics are reportedly worried about what happens when their current grants run out. How is UVA’s Capital Campaign doing? Haven’t seen any press releases from them for a year. They do seem to have a brilliant fund manager though, it will be interesting to see how he does this year.

This area is simply not an independent socialist republic, though some call it that. There is no way that we are immune to these massive tides. The only hope has been that this economic mess would be over by now, but it certainly is not.

If you would like to scare the sh** out of yourself some more, read Mr. Mortgage (and watch his youtube vids):

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/

boombust blog is good too:

http://boombustblog.com/

forewarned is forearmed…

………..

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

— Thomas Jefferson, Letter 1802 to Secretary of the Treasury, Albert Gallatin

]]> By: Surprised that Yun’s candor wasn’t noticed | Real Central VA http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-15827 Surprised that Yun’s candor wasn’t noticed | Real Central VA Wed, 30 Apr 2008 10:49:55 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-15827 [...] My take last week on the Case-Shiller index. [...] [...] My take last week on the Case-Shiller index. [...]

]]> By: Dave Phillips http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-15709 Dave Phillips Wed, 23 Apr 2008 20:16:37 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-15709 I would argue that some properties are correctly priced and many have either sold or are waiting to close. Others are still priced too high and will need to come down to meet the market. In other words, home values have already dropped, but some folks have not dropped their price. Knowing the difference between the over-priced and the correctly priced is the key. I would argue that some properties are correctly priced and many have either sold or are waiting to close. Others are still priced too high and will need to come down to meet the market. In other words, home values have already dropped, but some folks have not dropped their price. Knowing the difference between the over-priced and the correctly priced is the key.

]]> By: Pavel http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-15707 Pavel Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:37:45 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/04/23/wheres-charlottesville-in-the-case-shiller-index/#comment-15707 I've now seen 4 properties go under contract in less than a week, some in just a day or two. Those properties that are being priced aggressively tend to lead the market. I'll tell you, there is for sure, a VERY competitive market out there that is REAL, but it's a small "sub" market of really well priced properties. I've been involved in numerous multiple offer situations this year. I know of one new community in Charlottesville that put 10 units under contract in March alone. We're in a price driven market. I’ve now seen 4 properties go under contract in less than a week, some in just a day or two. Those properties that are being priced aggressively tend to lead the market. I’ll tell you, there is for sure, a VERY competitive market out there that is REAL, but it’s a small “sub” market of really well priced properties. I’ve been involved in numerous multiple offer situations this year. I know of one new community in Charlottesville that put 10 units under contract in March alone. We’re in a price driven market.

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