Comments on: 2nd Quarter Market Update for Charlottesville Region

By: Charlottesville Market Report – First Half 2009

Charlottesville Market Report – First Half 2009 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 05:06:16 +0000

[...] More appropriately let’s compare right now with the first quarter report of 2008: [...]

By: Third Quarter Market Report for Charlottesville Region | Real Central VA

Third Quarter Market Report for Charlottesville Region | Real Central VA — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 20:16:16 +0000

[...] context, see the Second Quarter 2008 market report and all market statistics posts [...]

By: cVillain » Blog Archive » Albemarle County Will Help You Out If You Face Eviction

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 13:35:25 +0000

[...] a sad time for people who own houses beyond their means. As Jim Duncan explains in his analysis of the 2nd quarter housing marketing, “I think that the calls for the proverbial “bottom” are premature.” So, if you are [...]

By: Media Appearance on Thursday 17 July | Real Central VA

Media Appearance on Thursday 17 July | Real Central VA — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:13:23 +0000

[...] an equally or more productive time. If you have any questions or topic suggestions, other than the current market report, please let me [...]

By: Pavel

Pavel — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 01:45:17 +0000

By the way, AWESOME STUFF, Jim. Thanks for doing the analysis!

By: Pavel

Pavel — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 01:37:07 +0000

Regarding the “dual agent” and MLS, isn’t there a “NONAGENT” choice for selling side? Naturally, when “NONAGENT” is chosen it’s not a dual agency (see Cherry Hill transactions and Ryan Homes) and when a listing agent and a selling agent is the same it implies dual agency. Unfortunately, MLS is not as accurate as we’d like it to be.

By: Jim Duncan

Jim Duncan — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 20:35:32 +0000

Michael –

Thanks for reading and for catching that. I did make an assumption in that the MLS shows the agent had both sides; my assumption is based on the fact that there is no notation in the MLS that indicates the buyer had no representation.

I’ll likely change the post to reflect “maybe”.

By: michael guthrie

michael guthrie — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 20:18:00 +0000

Jim,
I would be interested to know where you get the information that an agent has done dual agency. The listing agent could have sold the property to a buyer disclosing that they represent only the seller in the transaction.

By: tc

tc — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:35:45 +0000

Good info, Arthur. Bad cash flow for the landlord.

By: Local Housing Market in Rough Shape at cvillenews.com

Local Housing Market in Rough Shape at cvillenews.com — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:09:42 +0000

[...] their horse? All of that tells me that we may have a lot farther down to go. Real estate blogger Jim Duncan is inclined to agree that, at least, there’s no way to tell whether or not we’ve hit bottom: you’ve [...]

By: Arthur

Arthur — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:08:35 +0000

A couple of data points from developments in the city that are fairly new and uniform.
Burnet Commons- One sold in March for $335,000; One is listed for $399 and one is for rent at $1850/Month

Melbourne Park – Several units sold in 2008 from mostly around $285; two are listed at $340,000; two are for rent at $1750-1800.

Prices in these developments seem to be roughly 150 -200 times a month’s rent. That isn’t cash flowing for landlords, but it is much more rational than things were a year or two ago.

By: tc

tc — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:26:10 +0000

I’ve seen $400,000+ properties listed for rent for less than $2,000/month, which makes this a renters’ market, not a buyers’ or sellers’ market. Why would anyone want to buy into this market when prices are still fairly high?

By: Arthur

Arthur — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:06:47 +0000

I expect Scott is right that excess inventory is being stored as rental property, which is why I wish some enterprising blogger would track the rental market. My (very anecdotal) sense is that the rental market is actually much stronger than it has been in years. Maybe the flood of “temporary” supply is still to come. Or maybe I’m just wrong.

By: Scott R

Scott R — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:31:11 +0000

I should have added: your lead picture is the most evocative image for the article. I too am a big CR and Roubini fan, along with Soros, but I have to say: I think this will be L shaped – not U shaped.

By: Scott R

Scott R — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:24:16 +0000

Hi Jim -

This is a great update. I love the histogram, and if you find some idle time on your hands, I think it would be wonderful to see several years – 2002 through 2008 – overlaid. Because the peak of properties is tightly bunched between 200-300k, and that’s hardly representative of the bulk of inventory, I predict things will remain very slow. Until sellers can get down into that range, assuming they can go that low, transactions will remain slow.

The reduced inventory isn’t really reduced – it’s just being put into storage (rental), which will depress rental prices, and keep that rent/own ratio favorable to buyers.

Finally, the news of IndyMac’s failure, and the troubles at Fannie and Freddie point to the continued (if not accelerated!) contraction of credit. Without credit, even otherwise willing buyers are curtailed.

I used to think prices were headed back to 2003 levels here; now I think we’re heading back to ‘00 – all dictated by the credit markets.

Good luck, and hang in there – I believe agents who do offer buyer or seller value will survive. Lean times though; hopefully all the ants squirreled-away a nice egg to live on during the boom.