There’s a fascinating story in today’s Cavalier Daily that brings to light what has previously been discussed here on RealCentralVA – but this time with more data substantiating their claims:
“Obviously you see the headlines of [areas] that have drastic numbers of foreclosures,” Lovelady said, noting that it is “easy to think of Charlottesville as isolated from this.”
Lovelady said Charlottesville is not isolated from the foreclosure crisis, especially when considering issues such as neighborhood foreclosures.
…
The group that studied the topic of forecasting foreclosures saw several trends, including an 89-percent increase in foreclosures since 2006, the fact that 56.8 percent of foreclosed loans are adjustable rate mortgages and that 62.5 percent of home loans in Virginia are adjustable rate mortgages, Bridger said. Some financial analysts have argued against adjustable rate mortgages, noting that some consumers who enter into a low interest rate loan later find themselves unable to repay the loan should the interest rate rise.
“The good news is that the number of ARMs and subprime loans originating is decreasing, but many of them are soon to reset,” Bridger said.
(bolding mine)
As noted in June 2008-
We may not have seen the worst of what this cycle has to offer. I believe that the bulk of short-term ARMs have not yet reset, and until this happens (likely in 2009 and 2010) we may not see the proverbial “bottom.’ That being said, we won’t know the bottom until we have the benefit of nine to eighteen months of hindsight.
I would love to see a copy of their presentation as well as the underlying data (and am waiting on a response), especially because this appears to be the first, best and most localized foreclosure study on the Charlottesville area. Trend lines, breakdown by zip code/neighborhood/street/school district – all of this would be helpful for Realtors and the public to get a better handle on what exactly is happening in our market.
There is no good data source for accurate and timely foreclosure information in the Charlottesville, Virginia area. Witness:
Trulia lists four active foreclosures.
My IDX site shows three active foreclosures. (although this is a beta feature)
Foreclosure.com shows nine foreclosures, one foreclosure and 24 bankruptcies.
Hotpads shows seven foreclosures.
No wonder no one has any real idea as to what’s going on – with inaccurate and incomplete data, we’re left to making educated guess and speculation.
Add to all this that 3rd Quarter mortgage delinquencies “shot up in the third quarter from the same period last year …” (hat tip: Agent Genius)
Update 18 December 2008:
Search for Charlottesville/Albemarle Foreclosures here; this is not all of the ones in the Charlottesville area, but a pretty good starting point.
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