Comments on: End of The Year Market Report for Charlottesville Region http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/ Tracking Charlottesville's Real Estate Market since 2005 Sat, 13 Mar 2010 16:41:01 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Really Better Real Estate http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-22312 Really Better Real Estate Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:52:05 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-22312 <strong>Housing Reports From Practitioners Provide Clear Views...</strong> Welcome to the January 11, 2009 edition of Real Estate Market Reports. It must be a new year, as many of our real estate market experts are reporting in again. Our 23rd installment of this real estate blog carnival brings market reports and home selli... Housing Reports From Practitioners Provide Clear Views…

Welcome to the January 11, 2009 edition of Real Estate Market Reports. It must be a new year, as many of our real estate market experts are reporting in again. Our 23rd installment of this real estate blog carnival brings market reports and home selli…

]]> By: Housing Reports From Practitioners Provide Clear Views — Really Better Real Estate http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20727 Housing Reports From Practitioners Provide Clear Views — Really Better Real Estate Sun, 11 Jan 2009 13:57:43 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20727 [...] Duncan presents End of The Year Market Report for Charlottesville Region posted at Central VA real estate [...] [...] Duncan presents End of The Year Market Report for Charlottesville Region posted at Central VA real estate [...]

]]> By: Jim Duncan http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20345 Jim Duncan Mon, 29 Dec 2008 12:33:07 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20345 Jill - That post is coming up in a few days. Bill - What that means to me is that those who are under contract quickly are more willing/able to price their homes according to what the market will bear. I agree that one could look at the data and come to the same conclusion as you, but I think that I should have clarified ... about half of the sellers currently under contract "get" the market - so, in short, you're right and thank you, sincerely. Jill –

That post is coming up in a few days.

Bill –

What that means to me is that those who are under contract quickly are more willing/able to price their homes according to what the market will bear. I agree that one could look at the data and come to the same conclusion as you, but I think that I should have clarified …

about half of the sellers currently under contract “get” the market – so, in short, you’re right and thank you, sincerely.

]]> By: Bill http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20344 Bill Sun, 28 Dec 2008 17:37:22 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20344 I don't understand what your getting at here??? "1 - about half of the sellers right now “get” that their houses are worth what they’re worth." I read the numbers as 276/2072 = 13.3% of houses are under contract... Of the 13.3% you are deriving the "half" of sellers "getting" it. But why are we discounting the other 1796 sellers? To me 50% of the 13.3% is roughly 6.6% of sellers actually "get" that their houses are not worth was they are worth. Maybe I don't understand the point you are making. I don’t understand what your getting at here??? “1 – about half of the sellers right now “get” that their houses are worth what they’re worth.”
I read the numbers as 276/2072 = 13.3% of houses are under contract…
Of the 13.3% you are deriving the “half” of sellers “getting” it. But why are we discounting the other 1796 sellers? To me 50% of the 13.3% is roughly 6.6% of sellers actually “get” that their houses are not worth was they are worth. Maybe I don’t understand the point you are making.

]]> By: Jill Jorgenson http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20332 Jill Jorgenson Fri, 26 Dec 2008 02:44:05 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20332 Hi Jim, I was hoping you might give us your best shot at what 2009 has to offer us in the real estate business? Thanks for your analysis. Hi Jim,

I was hoping you might give us your best shot at what 2009 has to offer us in the real estate business?

Thanks for your analysis.

]]> By: Jim Duncan http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20324 Jim Duncan Wed, 24 Dec 2008 13:26:20 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20324 There are 2072 properties active in the Central Virginia MSA. 276 are under contract. Of these - - 103 (37%) have continuous days on market of<strong> < 30 </strong> - 129 (47%) have continuous days on market of<strong> < 60 </strong> - 146 (53%) have continuous days on market of<strong> < 90 </strong> So .... if I'm thinking right, 1 - about half of the sellers right now "get" that their houses are worth what they're worth. 2 - There <strong>are</strong> buyers buying right now. * Assuming the data from the Charlottesvile MLS is accurate There are 2072 properties active in the Central Virginia MSA.

276 are under contract. Of these –

- 103 (37%) have continuous days on market of < 30
- 129 (47%) have continuous days on market of < 60
- 146 (53%) have continuous days on market of < 90

So …. if I’m thinking right,
1 – about half of the sellers right now “get” that their houses are worth what they’re worth.
2 – There are buyers buying right now.

* Assuming the data from the Charlottesvile MLS is accurate

]]> By: Jim Duncan http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20323 Jim Duncan Wed, 24 Dec 2008 13:20:39 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20323 Alan - Thanks for the great comment. I think you're quite right in a lot of respects. Here's my thought - a lot of sellers have "gotten" that their houses are now worth less, but they simply cannot sell without losing money ... from a market perspective, that's irrelevant, but from a personal finance point of view, that's difficult to accept. Also, many people do not know what to do if they are under water. From your perspective - no one can convince you (nor should they) that a house is worth X ... but since you're coming to the area I'd encourage you to keep looking. Rent for 6 months to take your time and then use your time and position to negotiate from the position of strength. Get a good buyer's agent (<a href="http://www.realcentralva.com/contact-me/" rel="nofollow">hint</a>) - analyze the market and, if you're looking from a long-term position, think about buying. Pricing is but part of the challenge to getting the market moving. Even with houses that are priced well below the comps, buyers have come to expect 10-15% less than that to price in the predicted/expected/hoped for future declines (Nouriel Roubini said recently he expected housing prices to drop 15%, so that's not a totally unreasonable prediction) ... And sellers may not be able to withstand such losses. In all honesty and sincerity, if you have specific questions about the market, please do feel free to contact me anytime. Alan –

Thanks for the great comment. I think you’re quite right in a lot of respects.

Here’s my thought – a lot of sellers have “gotten” that their houses are now worth less, but they simply cannot sell without losing money … from a market perspective, that’s irrelevant, but from a personal finance point of view, that’s difficult to accept. Also, many people do not know what to do if they are under water.

From your perspective – no one can convince you (nor should they) that a house is worth X … but since you’re coming to the area I’d encourage you to keep looking. Rent for 6 months to take your time and then use your time and position to negotiate from the position of strength. Get a good buyer’s agent (hint) – analyze the market and, if you’re looking from a long-term position, think about buying.

Pricing is but part of the challenge to getting the market moving. Even with houses that are priced well below the comps, buyers have come to expect 10-15% less than that to price in the predicted/expected/hoped for future declines (Nouriel Roubini said recently he expected housing prices to drop 15%, so that’s not a totally unreasonable prediction) … And sellers may not be able to withstand such losses.

In all honesty and sincerity, if you have specific questions about the market, please do feel free to contact me anytime.

]]> By: Alan Overly http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20322 Alan Overly Wed, 24 Dec 2008 05:26:41 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20322 I am also interested in relocating to Charlottesville from South Central Pennsylvania. However, my similar observation to that of TC's, is that prices continue to remain relatively flat, despite significantly increasing inventories. I have been watching the Charlottesville listings off on and over the past couple of years and continue to be amazed by the prices that the majority of homes are still being listed for (the same applies to my area here in PA). I think that many of sellers have simply not woken up to the new reality of this market. I guess many of them just can't face having to adjust their home prices SIGNIFICANTLY downward. In my opinion, many of these homes are simply not worth what people are asking for them! You can try to convince me otherwise all you want but when I look at these homes either online or in-person, I frequently say to myself, "You want how much for this place? You've gotta to be kidding me!" The homes are simply not affordable!!! I make a pretty decent salary but still find myself amazed that people would even consider handing over $300-500k+ for the types of homes that they are actually getting. That's why so many homes are not selling. The home prices are still artificially inflated by the go-go years only a short while ago and the prices are not true representations of their current worth. If the homes were priced realistically, then people like myself might bite and take them off the sellers' hands. I'm not bitter or anything. I just don't think that many home sellers and their realtors get it. Until they do, a large pool of potential buyers is simply waiting on the sidelines until the moment is right to get into the game or just saving $ by renting. I am also interested in relocating to Charlottesville from South Central Pennsylvania. However, my similar observation to that of TC’s, is that prices continue to remain relatively flat, despite significantly increasing inventories. I have been watching the Charlottesville listings off on and over the past couple of years and continue to be amazed by the prices that the majority of homes are still being listed for (the same applies to my area here in PA). I think that many of sellers have simply not woken up to the new reality of this market. I guess many of them just can’t face having to adjust their home prices SIGNIFICANTLY downward. In my opinion, many of these homes are simply not worth what people are asking for them! You can try to convince me otherwise all you want but when I look at these homes either online or in-person, I frequently say to myself, “You want how much for this place? You’ve gotta to be kidding me!” The homes are simply not affordable!!! I make a pretty decent salary but still find myself amazed that people would even consider handing over $300-500k+ for the types of homes that they are actually getting. That’s why so many homes are not selling. The home prices are still artificially inflated by the go-go years only a short while ago and the prices are not true representations of their current worth. If the homes were priced realistically, then people like myself might bite and take them off the sellers’ hands. I’m not bitter or anything. I just don’t think that many home sellers and their realtors get it. Until they do, a large pool of potential buyers is simply waiting on the sidelines until the moment is right to get into the game or just saving $ by renting.

]]> By: James Huron http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20316 James Huron Mon, 22 Dec 2008 23:32:00 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20316 TC, If prices continue to hold, as you say, the only reason I can think of would be that the handful of buyers around here are all comatose. Seriously. What else could make prices hold?! Rents are coming down b/c there are so many unsold houses now on the rental market. This is just an observation, not a hard fact, however. But you can verify by watching craigslist. TC,

If prices continue to hold, as you say, the only reason I can think of would be that the handful of buyers around here are all comatose. Seriously.

What else could make prices hold?!

Rents are coming down b/c there are so many unsold houses now on the rental market. This is just an observation, not a hard fact, however. But you can verify by watching craigslist.

]]> By: TC http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20315 TC Mon, 22 Dec 2008 21:31:12 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20315 Thanks -- great analysis. I'm a bottom-line type of guy (I'll let others crunch the numbers, just give me the data I need to know to make my decision): it looks to me that, while inventories have skyrocketed, the prices have only flattened. I'm looking to relocate to Charlottesville in 2009 and am debating renting vs. buying -- has the rental market shown weakness too? I guess the big story of 2009 will be whether prices will continue to hold despite the weakness of the fundamentals (inventory and DOM). Thanks — great analysis. I’m a bottom-line type of guy (I’ll let others crunch the numbers, just give me the data I need to know to make my decision): it looks to me that, while inventories have skyrocketed, the prices have only flattened. I’m looking to relocate to Charlottesville in 2009 and am debating renting vs. buying — has the rental market shown weakness too?

I guess the big story of 2009 will be whether prices will continue to hold despite the weakness of the fundamentals (inventory and DOM).

]]> By: Jim Duncan http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20314 Jim Duncan Mon, 22 Dec 2008 20:25:22 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20314 Ardell - Thanks so much for the comment; I'm inclined to agree with you to a certain extent, but think that the relatively small number of foreclosures wouldn't contribute to the spike in months of inventory. From the gut, they might reduce the number of months from 26 to 24 or 23 months - still a long time to burn through existing inventory. Ardell – Thanks so much for the comment; I’m inclined to agree with you to a certain extent, but think that the relatively small number of foreclosures wouldn’t contribute to the spike in months of inventory. From the gut, they might reduce the number of months from 26 to 24 or 23 months – still a long time to burn through existing inventory.

]]> By: Greg Slater http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20313 Greg Slater Mon, 22 Dec 2008 19:39:51 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20313 Jim- I've always enjoyed your analysis. Thanks. I'm a bit of a stat junkie and keep my own reports. Your insights often inspire me to find another angle in an attempt to "catch a clue." I haven't looked at entire area, but out of curiousity, I looked at detached homes in Albemarle and the number of homes available vs the age of the home. About 50% of the homes were built in the last 10 years. (Since 1998) 37% of the homes were built in the last 5 years. (Since 2003) There's really know way to track how many of these have already been sold atleast once since construction, but I think it does tell us people aren't owning homes as long as I would have guessed. Maybe that's no surprise, but I found it interesting and thought I would share. I'd love to brainstorm and/or assist in any land analysis you may want to attempt. Its a tough one since most buildable homesites are sold without the use of the MLS. I'd think there's two ways to look at it. Over 1 acre parcels and under 1 acre parcles. I run in the circles of a lot of builders, developers, and bankers and land values are always a topic of conversation. I think we are experiencing a significant adjustment in new homesite values to keep in line with the single family market. One of the challenges the homebuilders face is what to do with owning dirt that has depreciated. It may have more impact on new starts than declining sales. I definitely feel some activity by people looking to take advantage of interest rates and good deals. I've had 4 sales in the last tw0 weeks. One of which was a new construction "presale" on a lot purchased by a builder recently at what I would consider post market adjustment, or what feels like fair market value. Jim-
I’ve always enjoyed your analysis. Thanks. I’m a bit of a stat junkie and keep my own reports. Your insights often inspire me to find another angle in an attempt to “catch a clue.” I haven’t looked at entire area, but out of curiousity, I looked at detached homes in Albemarle and the number of homes available vs the age of the home. About 50% of the homes were built in the last 10 years. (Since 1998) 37% of the homes were built in the last 5 years. (Since 2003) There’s really know way to track how many of these have already been sold atleast once since construction, but I think it does tell us people aren’t owning homes as long as I would have guessed. Maybe that’s no surprise, but I found it interesting and thought I would share.

I’d love to brainstorm and/or assist in any land analysis you may want to attempt. Its a tough one since most buildable homesites are sold without the use of the MLS. I’d think there’s two ways to look at it. Over 1 acre parcels and under 1 acre parcles. I run in the circles of a lot of builders, developers, and bankers and land values are always a topic of conversation. I think we are experiencing a significant adjustment in new homesite values to keep in line with the single family market. One of the challenges the homebuilders face is what to do with owning dirt that has depreciated. It may have more impact on new starts than declining sales.

I definitely feel some activity by people looking to take advantage of interest rates and good deals. I’ve had 4 sales in the last tw0 weeks. One of which was a new construction “presale” on a lot purchased by a builder recently at what I would consider post market adjustment, or what feels like fair market value.

]]> By: ARDELL http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/comment-page-1/#comment-20312 ARDELL Mon, 22 Dec 2008 18:40:39 +0000 http://www.realcentralva.com/2008/12/22/end-of-the-year-market-report-for-charlottesville-region/#comment-20312 Hi Jim! One possible explanation for higher absorption rate can be that more people are buying outside of the mls at foreclosure sales. I'm assuming you get your stats from the mls vs. the county records. Hi Jim!

One possible explanation for higher absorption rate can be that more people are buying outside of the mls at foreclosure sales. I’m assuming you get your stats from the mls vs. the county records.

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