Questioning the Data – 3rd Quarter Nest Realty Market Report

2013 Q3 Cville Nest Report - 5 Year Sales Trend

The third quarter of 2013 ended with a neither a bang nor a whimper, but a nice, consistent breathing pattern. As it stands right now, recovery seems to be in full swing.

I’ve said for years to question the data – whatever its source (it’s why I tend to provide raw data for readers to vet). If you’d read the market report from CAAR last week, you’d have been reading inaccurate conclusions different conclusions than the ones in our report. I won’t go point-by-point through the discrepancies (but will in my monthly note), but will say simply: the conclusions are wrong. We look at data differently using the same sources. As I’ve said for years – question everything (even the stuff I write – and ask me your questions).

Download the full 3rd Quarter 2013 Nest Report

If you watch national news you’d see:

- September existing home sales fall 1.9% (USA Today)
- USA Today is much the same as the NAR’s blog post
- Existing Home Sales in September: 5.29 million SAAR, Inventory up 1.8% Year-over-year (Calculated Risk)
- and then we have Zero Hedge: Existing Home Sales Plunge At Fastest Pace In 15 Month As Affordability Drops To 5 Year Low

Those trends are evident in the Charlottesville area as well. As prices rise, sales volume drops.

Some quick year over year numbers for the Charlottesville area:

MSA – sales volume up 19%
Albemarle – volume up 16%
Charlottesville City – volume up 16%

Single family home prices, long the bellwether for the housing market:

MSA – up 10%
Albemarle – up 16.2%
Charlottesville – up 12.5%

Your micro market will vary.

Update: so I upset a few folks with my calling the CAAR report “wrong” and “inaccurate”. I apologize for my tone, but remain 100% confident that the numbers I and we present are accurate. We do use different methodologies when looking at the data.

I’m not trying to pick a fight and could have been more diplomatic in my original post’s tone. For that, I apologize. I cannot apologize for presenting accurate data to my readers and clients.



Have questions about the market? Call or email me anytime. 434-242-7140

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