We had the rumors at the Nest Report a few days ago and Charlottesville Tomorrow reports this morning that the “Fifth and Avon Center is Moving Forward.“

Stay tuned – the neighborhoods in the Fifth Street and Avon Street corridors are about to get closer to stuff – which is mostly good … except for the trees and nature that will have to be destroyed to make way for said stuff.

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With that preface, there are negatives about Charlottesville and while they’re all relative (traffic) I’d like to think there are solutions.

I’ve been having this conversation on Google+ and on Facebook in advance of posting here.

My answer to the question: Perhaps the single greatest negative with living in CharlAlbemarle is the collective inability of the City and County to implement plans – specifically for infrastructure. Their constant bickering, planning, fighting, planning, discussing, planning and then planning some more is remarkably irresponsible.

My other response was – when I have the free time, choosing what to do from the plethora of options – sporting events, theater, music, arts, etc. Seriously. There is so much to do that choosing how to fill my limited free time is challenging.

The responses have varied from lack of Implementation of infrastructure plans to bickering of the localities.

I said last year: When explaining the City/County relationship to relocating buyers, I often describe the governments as being akin to estranged husbands and wives who are sharing custody of the kids. Or as brothers and sisters who occasionally poke each other in the eye, just to see what will happen.

It’s true, and it’s pathetic. And ultimately detrimental to the quality of life.

Or, as the UVA Law Blog’s title says: On Consideration, Charlottesville is Awful Actually OK

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In today’s market, much more so than the previous one(s), buyers are much more cognizant of the costs to operate a home.

Everyone can calculate the PITI payment – Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance

What’s not easily calculable by buyers is -

- How drafty is the house?

- What’s the natural gas bill?

- What’s the electric bill?

- What’s the water bill?

- Trash/recycling is a fairly fixed cost.

- Do the parents scrap over the thermostat?

- How much is my commute going to cost? (this is huge; many of my buyer clients are looking forward to the time when gas goes to $6/gallon … )

If the mortgage is going to be $2500 per month, but the utilities are $900/month, I’m thinking that my clients may be disinclined to move forward with an offer … or they might knock $30k (or some other number) off the offer price.

I said late last year that I suspect 2012 will be the year when buyers start doing energy audits as part of the home inspection process … sellers need to be prepared for this component to the home selling process.

If you’re interested in learning more about your home’s energy efficiency, Charlottesville’s Local Energy Alliance Program (LEAP) is a great place to start.

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This stuff matters, not simply because the assessed values affect homeowners’ taxes, but the County’s entire budget and to a certain degree property values in that buyers look to assessments for an indication as to what market value may be. My opinion that that the assessment rarely is equivalent to true market value.

Aaron Richardson at the Daily Progress reported last week:

Albemarle’s county executive, Tom Foley, has told the Board of Supervisors he was basing his budget request for next fiscal year, which is still in the works, on an equalized tax rate of 76.5 cents per $100 of assessed real estate value.

Schools Superintendent Pam Moran based her budget request for next fiscal year on the same figure.

For now, the tax rate sits at 74.2 cents per $100. The equalized tax rate is the rate that would have property owners paying basically the same amount of taxes as the previous year, the side-effect of falling property values. That equalized rate is also in the county’s five-year financial plan.

County spokeswoman Lee Catlin said that the 76.5 cent rate is a “working” figure that will be finalized in the next couple of weeks as the county finishes this year’s assessments.

Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Ann H. Mallek said she is in favor of the equalized rate. Moving to the new rate, she said, will make possible long-neglected capital improvements such as the Crozet Library and a police firing range.

Assessed values have been declining for years, and they absolutely matter – to local budgets, to schools’ budgets and quality, and to communities’ qualities of life.

I’ve written about real estate assessments many times over the years; if you’re interested in this subject, you may want to spend some time reading some of those stories.

From 2007: Assessments, property taxes and shifting market values in Albemarle County and also from 2007: basing budgets on hopes rather than actuality isn’t the best approach.

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In light of the Cavalier Inn’s reprieve, (from 2009) …

When the Board of Visitors first approved the Arts Gateway to the University of Virginia in 2007, the project—an estimated $118 million plan that would include, among other buildings, a new art museum at the current site of the Cavalier Inn—was slated to begin construction during the spring of 2009. Now, with renovations underway for the UVA Art Museum on Rugby Road, Vice Provost for the Arts Elizabeth Hutton Turner says that plans for the Arts Gateway are on “indefinite hold.”

… it seems there are going to be quite a supply of hotel rooms in Charlottesville.

As an aside, it’s a damn shame that the only working outbound links in the story I wrote in 2005 about the Cavalier Inn’s plans are to my own site and to cvillenews, not to the Cavalier Daily and not, in cvillenews’ case, to the Richmond Times Dispatch. Links are historical references.

As I said on Twitter:

“Media that break links are damaging history; links are historical references. @DailyProgress @cavalierdaily @RTDnews”

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The contrasts between that town and ours are remarkable – ours is green, vibrant, thriving, with contrasts between city, country, mountains and flat land. Theirs is none of those. It’s interesting here, the topography, the culture, the things to do …

On the days where I read about a story about the stunning ineptitude of our politicians systems bureaucracy, the perspective of going to a place that is desolate, boring, depressed and uninteresting is immensely valuable.

For all of Charlottesville’s* faults and shortcomings (I’ll identify a few in a forthcoming story), we live in a pretty nice place and I count myself as damn lucky to live here.

Spend a few minutes browsing James Marshall’s photo stream on Flickr and tell me that Charlottesville’s not an awesome place to live. Seriously.

* Charlottesville = Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson and sometimes Louisa

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Is anyone surprised that the advice VDOT is offering is this?

“Rich suggested that acceptance might be the best response to distant construction dates.”

This seems par for the course in the Charlottesville – Albemarle area, when one of the three conditions set forth by the City of Charlottesville is to “have more meetings.”I’ve been working on a story on and off for the past weeks, the working title of which is “What sucks about living in Charlottesville?” Transportation politics is an early leader.

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- Human settlement patterns (where people are living and working)

- Gas prices

- Expectation of permanence/transience

- Interest rates

- Property tax rates

- Monetary supply

- The internet’s availability and impact

Those are just a few of the ways that 1999 differs from 2011, and makes application of “normal” challenging.

Here’s something that hasn’t changed – people need homes. Buying a house is a choice, and one that comes with greater responsibility than renting – you’re accepting on the maintenance, the permanence, the mortgage, the community, the risk. If you’re not ready for those, don’t buy a house. If you’re ready to buy a home, do your due diligence and consider it.

“New normal” is a shifting term, applicable to virtually every evolving industry.

Heck, I’ve been seeking “new normal” for years.

But I thought I’d look at the data and briefly compare the 1999 Charlottesville area real estate market with the 2011 one … keeping in mind that so many things are different, thus negating in a lot of ways the comparisons.

And then, looking solely at single family home sales – 1999 versus 2011 in the Charlottesville MSA:

* I’m borrowing this theme from a speaker at a lunch I attended yesterday.

Keep in mind that this moving median home sale chart is for the Charlottesville MLS – not the Charlottesville MSA … meaning that more than anything it’s a trend line for the region.

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A reader asks –

Hi, Jim: I’m amazed and annoyed that most listings do not mention internet service, nor do RE sites include that information as a search parameter. Knowing the availability – and speed – of internet connection is especially necessary when seeking a home outside Charlottesville. Short of investigating through local ISP’s for particular addresses or neighborhoods, do you have any suggestion? I do not trust sellers or, frankly, seller’s agents, to know or tell the truth.

In the Charlottesville area, the City of Charlottesville and the urban ring definitely* have broadband connectivity, as do many (most?) of the more densely-populated areas of Greene, Louisa, Louisa. * Definitely = 99% sure.

My suggestions and insight to ascertain broadband connectivity in the Charlottesville area:

1a – Ask your buyer broker. A good one is going to know with reasonable accuracy whether an area is likely to have internet service.

1b – If you’re really interested, the only way to ensure there is broadband service is to contact the service provider. In the Charlottesville MSA, we have Comcast, Embarq, Blue Ridge Internetworks, Verizon in some of the outlying areas, and a couple smaller fiber providers. *Nelson County just lost some broadband connectivity.

2 – A note to listing agents: when a buyer asks, “does this house have internet?” they aren’t asking about Wildblue or dial-up.

3 – I’ve asked the fine folks who power the “search for homes” feature of my site to add internet availability as a search option, but here’s the problem: GIGO. Just last year, the Charlottesville MLS added “internet availability” to the list of features listing agents can select, joining the ranks of # of bedrooms, # of bathrooms, acreage, etc.
But … As “internet availability” isn’t a required field in the MLS, it’s liable to be left out. And as we all know – if it’s blank, it’s not searchable. Thus, the search and results will be inaccurate, not useful, frustrating and bad for everyone – buyers searching, sellers trying to sell and agents running real estate blogs.

4 – To the trust aspect – get a good buyer broker who you can trust. I’ll address this aspect in more detail with clients. As clients said recently about the photos some realtors take to market their properties – “All pictures tell a story, and some aren’t true.”

5 – I wish that the internet service providers would offer maps and overlays to let people determine where service is, but presumably that information is a competitive thing for them.

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I started to write this post in early November, soon after my clients and I ratified the contract on their house and right about when the story was published on the Newsplex. I almost didn’t do the Newsplex story.* (see the end of this post for the rationale)

The single greatest takeaway from this story: If you are thinking about putting your house on the market in the Charlottesville area in the next several weeks, start now.

A few of my rules for real estate:

“Under Contract” ≠ “Sold”:

- “Under Contract” means: “we need to get through the loan application, loan commitment (including appraisal), home inspection and any other contingencies.

Most importantly – What did we do to get a contract on this house in three weeks? Simple:

1: My clients worked hard. For a long time; we met last year and discussed strategies for getting their home ready to put on the market, the value of pricing the home right, what they needed to do and what I needed to do to prepare for the marketing of their home.

2: We priced it right; tracking the real estate market, the sold competition and most importantly, the active and under contract competition.

3: We worked the first offer we got. One of the real estate truisms is that the first offer is usually the best offer; you might not get another offer.

4: We got lucky with the buyer’s agent; she’s one of the best in the area and that was one of the factors we evaluated when evaluating the offer. I’m probably going to touch on this aspect in a later, separate post, but the quality and competence of the opposing real estate agent matters. If I can advise my clients that there is a reasonable expectation that the transaction will go relatively smoothly in part because the other agent agent is competent, that’s a serious component we evaluate. (as a contrast, if I don’t know or trust the other agent, that’s a factor as well)

5: My clients worked really, really hard and were realistic about the market and their expectations. I can’t emphasize this one enough. Selling a house is hard work – for the sellers and their representation. Being willing and able to work, be realistic and reasonable is invaluable.

6: Lastly – price absolutely matters, but it’s not always the most important factor. (as an aside, my feelings from the linked post regarding other agents’ competencies have shifted quite dramatically as I have gained much more experience; when I wrote that I had been in the business just over three years; now I’m entering my 11th year)

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Good job, CharlAlbemarle.

See a full photo tour taken last year:

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To those of you who have read and continue to read, send me tips and thoughts and to the buyers and sellers whom I have met and worked with over the years, I offer a simple and humble thank you.

While the format of this site has changed many times, the intent has not – to provide clear and transparent analysis about the Charlottesville real estate market devoid of spin, reflecting my thoughts and opinions about the local real estate market, local politics affecting real estate and other such matters. Sometimes I write about my phones. Sometimes about technology that makes marketing real estate better for me and for my clients.

I know I’ve written about this before but I can’t find it – while Facebook and Twitter and Google+ and tumblr and posterous and and and and … are hugely ginormous behemoths, I don’t intend to build their real estate online as I do to build my own; my online hub and home remains this blog, and always will.

Make no mistake – the number one thing that writing RealCentralVA has done is forced me and allowed me the path to become a better real estate professional. I know more, I read more, I’m aware of more, I’m aware of more that I don’t know, I understand the context of real estate in the local, state and national economies … by reading, writing and practicing real estate every day, I’m better positioned and prepared to do what I love – represent my clients as I guide them through life-altering decisions.

These are a few stories of note; frankly, with over 3700 stories written since 4 January 2005, I briefly looked at the RealCentralVA archives and picked a few that interested me.

- RealCentralVA has outlasted a lot of others; most notably the Daily Progress’ links prior to 27 March 2008. Apparently blogging is dead. Again.

- The Meadowcreek Parkway continues to be a shining example of local governments’ collective inability to work together.

- The Charlottesville bubble blog has been one of the most welcome additions – they’ve provided rattling insight and opinions. One day I’ll find out who they are. For now, I’m happy to reflect on the interviews with them.

- I’m now riding my bicycle as often as possible to show houses.

- We launched a new real estate brokerage – Nest Realty – (Meet Nest) – that has changed the dynamic of how real estate brokerage is done in Central Virginia. (Have you seen our signs?) Or our community videos?

- One of my predictions has rung true. Real estate brokerage continues to shift.

- My blogging philosophy has not changed; I want to write, share my thoughts and opinions and not speak a party line about the real estate market (or anything for that matter)

- As I said in 2009, without this blog, I wouldn’t still be a Realtor.

- I’m using video a lot more now.

- Single agent dual agency, something I have long advocated as horribly bad and beneficial only to the real estate agents involved, while not outlawed in the Commonwealth of Virginia, is going to be much more difficult for Realtors to convince buyers and sellers to agree to. The now-mandated dual agency disclosures are simple and clear, starting with:

1. That following the commencement of dual standard agency, the licensee will be unable to advise either party as to the terms, offers or counteroffers; however, under the limited circumstances specified in subsection C, the licensee may have previously discussed such terms with one party prior to the commencement of dual standard agency;

All told, it’s been a fascinating seven years. I am entering my 10th year of being a real estate agent, and love what I do and love my clients. Every day brings new things to learn, new opportunities and new people with whom to work.

I won’t bore you any longer with this brief look at the history of this little site; if you have questions about the Charlottesville real estate market, please contact me anytime. My cell phone is 434-242-7140. I’m happy to talk (almost) anytime.

If you’re so inclined, please subscribe to updates, either by email or RSS. I sincerely appreciate your time, comments and reading.

PS -

1 – If you’re a consumer trying to understand the market, please feel free to contact me anytime; challenge me, question me – I’m always open to conversations about real estate.

2 – If you’re a real estate agent who wants to “blog for leads” – DON’T. Write for yourself and for understanding. You and your blog will be better for it. Consumers aren’t stupid; they know when you’re not being genuine or authentic.

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Do Real Estate Assessments Matter?

What do real estate assessments mean?

From a visitor:

… tidbit of info. – Nelson Co. assesses real estate every 5 years. I just received the assessment of our second home in Wintergreen. In 2006 it assessed at $599K, now $385K — down 36%

2012 is going to prove very interesting in the Charlottesville region.

The Washington Post reports (hat tip: Calculated Risk)

“We’ll see, over the next few years, the real impact of the recession and housing crisis on local governments,” said Andrew Reschovsky, a professor of public affairs and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin at Madison who has studied the effects of the recession on city finances. “I think the case can be made that we have not yet seen the worst of the impact on local governments. . . . That seems to be accelerating.” … The worst may be yet to come.

“That storm has not yet hit,” Frank Alexander, a professor and housing law expert at Emory University, said of the looming decline in property tax revenues, which he and others agree will last years. “It’s beginning in 2011, but it’s really going to hit in 2012 and 2013.”

For some context, see the story I wrote in January of 2011 – Charlottesville Assessments are Coming! Assessments are Coming! (2011 version).

There is only so much that the localities can raise rates and modify budgets. At some point, services are likely to be cut … dramatically.

One note:

It would be great if the City of Charlottesville offered a GIS solution for the public, as every other locality does. Sadly, they continue to be negligent.

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Extra points if you know you live in a development area.

It’s a pretty vague survey. Hopefully the comments will provide insight. I choose to live here because we like it here.From the Newsplex:

The commission is using a government grant to perform the survey and develop a comprehensive plan – including transportation and livability – to sustain local communities. They hope the survey will “maximize community engagement in the process and to encourage collaboration across municipal boundaries.”

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The rest of the series –

- Crozet
- Ivy
- Charlottesville

29 North has it all – great neighborhoods, neighborhood schools, Target, Bonefish Grill, Panera, Harris Teeter – and it’s sort of hard to define. For some, it’s anything north of Rio Road, for others, it’s north of Polo Grounds Road. Either way, 29 North offers excellent accessibility to “stuff.”

Some of the neighborhoods in the 29 North area:

- Forest Lakes
- Bentivar
- Hollymead
- Homes for sale that offer a great commute for those going to NGIC or DIA or the UVA Research Park

Stay tuned … we have more coming!

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Listen to the podcast of my discussion with Coy Barefoot as we look back at the 2011 Charlottesville real estate market and a look forward to 2012.

Attitudes of Young Americans Bode Ill for Housing Recovery (Forbes) – This is something that is going to affect all real estate markets, not just Charlottesville’s, for years (decades?).

The lack of assets isn’t the only encumbrance to housing: Echo Boomers value education, people and leisure more than other American generations.  Of the Echo Boomers I spoke with, 13% were homeowners, yet less than a third reported interest in owning a home someday (with female Echo Boomers wanting homes more than male Echo Boomers).  They preferred graduate degrees, living in social areas (not suburbs) and freedom instead of homeownership.  A few of these Echo Boomers will need a decade to pay off their student loans after which another large loan, like a mortgage, might lack appeal.  And while suburbs seem to offer community and safety, they also add transportation costs with a lack of social diversity.

Goodbye, 0-5 Buyer -OR- Finance a House or an Education? (RealCentralVA)

People are staying in their homes longer – whether by choice or necessity. If selling is not a viable option, you need to fall in love with your house all over again.

Residential Remodeling Index at new high in October (Calculated Risk)

Now in Vogue: Practical Remodeling (Wall Street Journal)

UVA Credit Union’s Power Saver Loan-

These new PowerSaver loans will offer qualified homeowners up to $25,000 to make energy-efficient improvements of their choice, such as replacement doors and windows, metal or asphalt roofs, HVAC systems, water heaters, insulation, duct sealing, solar panels, ground source heat pump systems and more.

Interest Rates are still historically low – and they won’t start to matter until they rise.

Shadow Inventory – What will it’s affect be on the Charlottesville real estate market?

(thanks to KCM Blog for pointing this out)*”So far” is defined as 1/1/11 – 12/1/11 vs 1/1/10 – 12/1/10.

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View Best Christmas Lights in the Charlottesville area in a larger map

So far, here’s the list:

- Agnese Street in Charlottesville
- Mountain View Street in Charlottesville
- Fairway Avenue in Charlottesville
- Elliot Avenue in Charlottesville
- Western Ridge neighborhood in Crozet
- Old Trail neighborhood in Crozet
- Preddy Creek neighborhood in Ruckersville
- Westhall neighborhood in Crozet

If you’re interested, these are the some of the best places to get Christmas trees in the Charlottesville area, and this story explains and dispels some of the mythology around Dr. Seuss, the Grinch, Hooville and Charlottesville.

Update: This is a BatchGeo map that shows a lot locations for Christmas lights.

Update 18 December … a Gary Kriebel sent me the following map (his GPS cut out a little bit at the end) and this kml file (download it and open it in Google Earth) of his family’s trip around Charlottesville on the Gingerbread Express,  a tour put on by the Downtown Business Assocation. While it looks like the tour itself is over, you can take it yourself using the map below :

Update 20 December – I took a few photos, in part because I’m testing my new Nexus Galaxy phone.

And this is a map of these four locations, from Charlottesville to Ivy to Crozet.

Update 23 December 2011:

Donna sent in these pics (not the map … I’m having wordpress issues) –

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Download the PDF of the November 2011 here

I’m working on data and analysis, but wanted to get this out today. Lots more PDFs after the jump.

These two charts fairly well depict the short sale, foreclosure and “normal” real estate transactions – there is little consistency.

Zip file of market reports for Central Virginia – Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna and Greene. Analysis coming later today.

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See the rest of the Live Where you Love Videos –

- Charlottesville, Virginia
- Ivy, Virginia

(Search for homes and real estate for sale in Crozet)

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