This is a chart showing the inventory for Scripps Ranch in San Diego, courtesy of one of the best writers I know, Kris Berg.

Contrast the above chart with the one for the Charlottesville MSA, where we have about 16 months of inventory (across all market segments, property types, location, price, etc. … this number is good for showing broad trends, but is NOT an actionable data point).

If you’re looking for Charlottesville real estate information and analysis, look for Charlottesville real estate information and analysis. National housing market “analysis” is usually provided by people who are selling something, either Case Shiller or the NAR.

Since you’re reading, here are a few things that have caught my eye this week:

[Perishable] What On Earth Is Market Value? – This is a freaking outstanding analysis of what is “market value”. Required reading for buyers, sellers and real estate folks.

The PRICE Is the Same, But the COST Is Less – “However, when you factor in mortgage rates, the case for buying a home today becomes even more compelling.”

- New Idea For Sharing Urban Roads? Sidewalks Removed on Busy London Street Forces Drivers to Slow

- More Evidence that Judges Have Had it with Banks – read this opinion if only for the Alice’s Restaurant reference.

Phillips v US Bank, N.a., Sup Ct Carroll Cty Ga.20111102

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When I saw that number, my first thought was “What? That’s awful. I need to double check that.”

From CAAR’s page:

Try as I might, I couldn’t replicate these numbers, so I asked CAAR for clarification; as soon as I receive that I will post it here.

CARR staff really are extremely helpful and responsive. The answer I received was very technical, with words such as query, local table name and other such cryptic terms. The short answer is: For February, it isn’t 95 homes sold, it’s 138.

Succinctly, Year over Year, for the first 71 days of the year:

- # of homes that have been listed: down 6.5% (good news)

 – # of homes put under contract: up 7%

- # of homes sold: down 15%

Further, for starters, how do they define “CAAR”?

- Is it “Charlottesville/Albemarle”? Charlottesville MSA? All of the MLS (about 30+ counties)?

- In Charlottesville/Albemarle in February 2011, 66 homes sold.

- In Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, 106 homes sold.

- In Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, Louisa, 133 homes sold and 172 went under contract.

- In the entire MLS, (which is mostly irrelevant to my readers) 455 homes sold.

For a better representation of real estate data that is relevant to real estate buyers, sellers, voyeurs, consumers in the Charlottesville MSA:

Same information, different display:

(I like this one as it gives a good understanding of the total volume we’re dealing with)

As always, raw data is at the bottom of this post.

I don’t envy local reporters; they are given limited time and resources to report on a complex subject. Boiling the real estate market to a 90 second clip inevitably will lead to missing information. The reason the 95 sold didn’t sound right or reasonable to me is because I do this every day.

For the sake of accuracy, I typically discount/ignore aggregate days on market; they are so easily manipulated (such as by those entering new construction with 0 days on market to make their numbers look better, realtors gaming the mls, etc)

- Even More about Days on Market

- Days on Market Matter in Charlottesville

- For consistency, I am excluding Louisa County. They are still not officially part of the Charlottesville MSA, and were not included in the market until the last five years or so.

Moving median home prices for the entire Charlottesville MLS for one month, one year, three years and five years. Focus on the trend lines rather than the numbers. Looking at this broad of a dataset is not useful when considering what your home may be worth.

Raw data, inclusive of inadequate short sales and foreclosures:

.See all Friday Charts in the series.

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Showed two houses today. One – on market for 2 days w/ 2 offers. Other – on market for 300+ days, likely w/ an offer.

Today we’re looking for trends; as I’ve said for years, looking at data from any level other than this house (whatever that house is) can be misleading. Real estate trends such as the ones below lead to buyer and seller psychological analysis as much as anything else.

Succinctly:

# of homes that have been listed: down 10% (good news)*
# of homes put under contract: up 3%
# of homes sold: down 2%

Link to the full spreadsheet.

Every time I see just how dead 2009 was, I’m a little surprised, and thankful to have made it through that time period.

*This could mean there is a lot more shadow inventory waiting in the wings.

**Charlottesville EMSA = Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, Louisa

As always, raw data after the jump:

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* EMSA = Charlottesville, Albemarle, Nelson, Louisa, Greene, Fluvanna

Looking at Median Home Prices for the Charlottesville MLS – which encompasses a vast region – we can reasonably see some trend lines. At this macro/micro level, trend lines are all we can reasonably expect to see.

Keep in mind that the below charts are for everything - single family detached homes, attached homes, condos, farms, new construction, resale – the Charlottesville MLS does not allow for easily producing statistical charts (one reason that I have been doing so much statistical analysis on the Charlottesville real estate market for the past six years).

With the above caveat, we can see where we were and make some educated guesses about where we’re going.

Charlottesville MLS – Moving Median Prices – One Month

Charlottesville MLS – Moving Median Prices – One Year

Charlottesville MLS – Moving Median Prices – Three Years

Charlottesville MLS – Moving Median Prices – Five Years

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Looking at all residential properties in the Charlottesville MSA put under contract in the first 27 days of the year over the past ten years …*

Does 27 days lead to a trend? Doubtful. But maybe it’s an early indicator. Or maybe it’s just an interesting Friday Chart.

99 single family homes + 25 attached homes + 17 condos = 141 properties put under contract in the first 27 days of January.

What does this mean to you, if you’re thinking about buying a home in Charlottesville right now? Maybe it means that the market is stabilizing. Maybe it means that we’re seeing normalcy. Maybe it is a precursor to real estate armageddon. Housing sales are at an all-time low (nationally) … make sure to educate yourself about the Charlottesville area market as well.

It means that you as a buyer need to do your due diligence. You need to align yourself with an advisor who has your best interests in mind, one who takes a realistic approach, one who is not afraid to tell you to rent, one who analyzed the market consistently.

Raw data after the jump …

* Source: Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors’ MLS

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Using the data from 2010 for the Charlottesville MSA*, it’s clear that homes come on the market in the early part of the year.

A bit about the data – I used data from the Charlottesville MLS for all types of properties – single family, attached, condo, farm – for 2010. Last year was clearly an odd year – transactions were pulled into the first half of 2010 due to the government’s interference via the tax credit, severe recession, low interest rates, etc. But 2010 is the most recent year we have to analyze, so that’s what we’ll use.

In short – if you’re thinking about selling, you really need to have your preparations underway. If you’re thinking about buying in 2011, same goes to you.

- If you’re thinking about selling your home in Charlottesville, and you’re looking for tips and advice, start here.

- If you’re prepping to buy a house in Charlottesville in 2011, start here.

*Charlottesville MSA = Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson

** Technical note – I originally embedded the google chart (the second one) which was a Google Apps chart, but it appeared to require sign-in, so I had to take it down. If anyone knows how to publish a google apps document without requiring sign-in, I’d appreciate the assistance.

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- When do houses come on the market in Charlottesville?
- Should I take my house off the market over the holidays?
- When should I put it back on the market?
- Are sellers more negotiable over the winter?
- When does the “Spring Market” start? (1 February. -ish)

The number of homes* listed and put under contract in the Charlottesville MSA* from February through October:

Here we look at the number of Homes** in Charlottesville MSA Listed & Under contract from November through January:

* # of Homes = Condos, Attached & Detached homes. I’m looking more for volume trends than anything else. I’ll update this chart in February 2011.
**

If you want to see the raw data, send me an email. I’m having some issues embedding the Google Docs spreadsheet.

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Transactional Volume for Charlottesville MSA - 1999 versus 2010

Prices aside, is this volume the “new normal” for the Charlottesville market?

What are the impacts on the market, the number of agents (answer: very little – the Charlottesville Area Realtor Association is poised to lose but a handful of Realtors next year, out of about 1,000, a relatively small percentage of whom are productive ), the number of productive Realtors, the number of brokerages. The number of Realtors nationwide may be forecast to drop, but I don’t see that happening.

Of course, the predictions that the number of Realtors will drop have been ongoing.

Another question – what will the net migration trend be? The Charlottesville MSA added about 13,467 people via net migration from April 1 2000 to July 1 2009. Source: Weldon Cooper Center.

I’m not through sorting out what the data means, but I’m still trying.

*Defined as Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson. While Louisa County is now more a part of our market, it wasn’t in the reference year (2000)

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Days on Market matter. And the doldrums are right around the corner:

So where do we go from here? Schools in the Charlottesville area start around the third week of August … and we have about three months left before the annual doldrums set in. October – People are focused on Halloween. November – Thanksgiving. December – Christmas, Hanukkah, Holidays. January – It’s cold.

See the entire Friday Charts series.

Raw data after the fold.

Have a question about the Charlottesville real estate market? Seen a house that intrigues you? Researching a neighborhood? Let me know and I’ll likely help in any way I can.

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The Higher Education Bubble: It’s About to Burst

Found via TaxProf Blog, via Instapundit.

Update: Read this horrifying story sent to me by a reader, Higher Ed. Racket: How Kids Are Paying a Fortune for Rip-off ‘Prestige’ Educations:

What if we actually started measuring how much students learn at their colleges and universities? How would that change the competition among institutions? Would the schools with the blue-chip price tags and high average debt loads fall from the top ranks? Would it spell an end to the era in which a forbidding set of entrance standards and a few stone facades are enough to tell us that a school is doing a great job? Let’s hope so. It would be great if more universities competed to be excellent. What we have now is schools that spend a lot of money — students’ money, taxpayers’ money — merely to look that way.

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Contracts were down in June and July in the aftermath of the government’s homebuyer tax credit. Thus, closings were down in July and will probably be down in August as well.

I’m coming to the conclusion that the Charlottesville real estate market is neither good nor bad … it just is. And part of that “is” is that last month in Charlottesville and Albemarle, 85 single family homes closed and 22 attached homes closed. The market’s slow, but it’s not dead.

Attached Home Home Closings in July for the past ten years:

Single Family Home Closings in July for the past ten years: I’m actually surprised that there were so many closed transactions last July.

Now, looking back of June and July for the past ten years … The Spike in 2009 seems to be new construction attached properties in Abington Place, Brookwood and the Pavilions at Pantops (more on new construction’s impact on MLS data in a later post).

Single Family home closings in Charlottesville and Albemarle for the past ten years:

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Keep in mind that below we’re looking at the moving median price for the entire Charlottesville MLS – inclusive of the Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson) as well as outlying areas such as Madison, Waynesboro, Rockbridge, etc. With that disclaimer, note that we’re looking at wider market trends – as in – is the median price increasing? Or are we preparing for a double dip? Or are we in the midst or nearing the bottom of the market? It’s too early to say yes or no …

We’re all – even those of us who do this every single day – looking for the benefit of hindsight.

For a later post, I’ll break these down by property type – condo, attached, single family, locale, etc. But … it seems that the median price has been increasing after the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit.

Looking at the moving median price for the past year …

And for the past five years … I wish this chart allowed for more than five years, but stay tuned, we have some interesting things in the works at Nest.

See all posts in the Friday Charts series.

And, because when I start looking at market data and charts, I can rarely stop with one … my mind starts wondering and wandering and asking questions …

As an aside – what’s happening in the Charlottesville foreclosure market? Foreclosure charts courtesy of RealtyTrac:

For Albemarle County:

For the City of Charlottesville:

For Palmyra in Fluvanna County, which includes Lake Monticello: (they have more foreclosures per capita than Charlottesville or Albemarle)

Of course, God only knows what our government might do … all of our analysis would be for naught.

See all posts in the Friday Charts series.

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One of the questions I get from buyers moving to the area is, “What are the politics like around here?” Conservative? Liberal … I start with this analogy – The City of Charlottesville and the County of Albemarle are sort of like estranged parents who keep it together just enough so that the kids (in this case, residents) survive.

Step One: Follow the Money. Luckily, we can do that – Find out who is giving how much and to whom at VPAP.

I hate politics, particularly the money spent on politics. (I wonder how much good could be done with $2.3 million)

Top political donors in Albemarle County.

Top political donors in Charlottesville City.

I wonder why Comcast spent $17,197 in Albemarle County this year. The Old Dominion Highway Contractors Association is spreading the wealth.

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This Friday I’m looking for trends …

Data points used:

- City of Charlottesville and the County of Albemarle
- From June to 22 July
- All property types – single family, attached and condo.

* the numbers don’t add up because three of the 192 were “proposed” – meaning new construction. They’re not supposed to count towards the numbers, but such are the vagaries of the MLS.

See all posts in the Friday real estate post category.

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Looking purely at the data, a greater percentage of active listings in the Charlottesville MLS have gone under contract this year versus 2009. I’m not spinning, I’m not evening opinionating today. Just putting it out there.

Have we turned? I doubt it. Is this year better – in volume – than last year? Yep. Should you rush out and buy a home today because the tax credit is ending? Nope.

As always, the raw data is below the fold.

See previous “Friday Charts”

(Ignore the timeframe before 11/09)

What data sets would you like to see?

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Of the 325 properties that have come on the market in the first 15 days, 13 are listed as being short sales. That’s ridiculously inaccurate (using anecdotal evidence).

See all Friday Charts

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Just in Albemarle County, these are the number of homes with asking prices over one million dollars that have gone under contract in the first 77 days:

And a very basic list to sell chart for homes listed for at least one million dollars in Albemarle County. This does not take into account properties that

- Went under contract late in the year and closed in the following year
- Were withdrawn and re-listed (for less)

In Charlottesville and Albemarle County:

All told, the “million dollar” plus category has been a relatively small segment of the Charlottesville area real estate market, and from a high-level view seems to be relatively stable. More analysis to come …

See all Friday Charts

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This is no surprise and suggests that the extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit will probably cost taxpayers over $100,000 for each additional home sold.

Just about every economist opposed the tax credit as expensive and ineffective.

Buyers – are you waiting until after the tax credit expires?

Congress – will you pander some more with tax dollars and attempt to extend the tax credit for a fourth time?

Since 1 January 2010*:

373 residential properties have gone under contract in the Charlottesville MSA.

108 – 29% – are under $200k

168 – 45%- are under $250k

218 – 58% of homes that went under contract since the first of the year are under $300k.

70 – 19% – are between $300k and $400k

35 – 9% – are between $400k and $500k

40 – between $500k and $999k

12 – over $1 million

* “Now” is 7 am on 5 March 2010

* I’ll turn this into an “official” Friday chart this evening.

* Editor’s note: Original title was “So … the Homebuyer Tax Credit Costs $100k per House”

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We’ve been talking recently about what the effects the various snowpocalypses have had on the Charlottesville real estate market; people were snowed in, buyers couldn’t get out to see houses (yet another argument for high-quality photos and videos in the Charlottesville MLS), sellers couldn’t get their houses ready or activated on the market … the consensus has been that February 2010 was going to be a pretty sorry month for home sales.

But the data seem to indicate something different … February doesn’t look to be so awful relative to February 2009. I suspect that we’ll see another 10-20 contracts written at least this weekend.

This clearly does not account for canceled contracts, contracts that fall apart due to home inspections, financing or appraisal issues …

Homes – single family, attached and condos – that went under Contract in February in the Charlottesville MSA*

Homes – single family, attached and condos – that went under Contract in February in Charlottesville and Albemarle –

12 condos went under contract in February. 8 were foreclosures or short sales. Two were owned by an LLC, and the remainder appeared to be normal, private sales. This really could be the year of the short sale and more foreclosure delays.

As always, the data is after the jump.

For Charlottesville and Albemarle in February 2010 for far:

- 2 8 were new construction attached
- 31 were resale attached
- 0 9 were new construction single family detached
- 64 were resale single family detached
- 12 were condos
- 0 0 were new construction condos

(and yes, I added the above manually and they match the spreadsheet. )

Update 1 March 2010:

Thanks to Greg, I fixed the new construction numbers above.

Charlottesville MSA for these purposes includes Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson

See all previous Friday Charts at RealCentralVA, Charlottesville’s most widely read real estate blog.

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I was on the radio with Coy Barefoot the other day discussing the Charlottesville real estate market. If you follow me on Posterous, you may have already heard the segment; you may also listen to the show at Charlottesville Podcasting Network.

Thanks to VARBuzz.

Further:

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