With that preface, there are negatives about Charlottesville and while they’re all relative (traffic) I’d like to think there are solutions.

I’ve been having this conversation on Google+ and on Facebook in advance of posting here.

My answer to the question: Perhaps the single greatest negative with living in CharlAlbemarle is the collective inability of the City and County to implement plans – specifically for infrastructure. Their constant bickering, planning, fighting, planning, discussing, planning and then planning some more is remarkably irresponsible.

My other response was – when I have the free time, choosing what to do from the plethora of options – sporting events, theater, music, arts, etc. Seriously. There is so much to do that choosing how to fill my limited free time is challenging.

The responses have varied from lack of Implementation of infrastructure plans to bickering of the localities.

I said last year: When explaining the City/County relationship to relocating buyers, I often describe the governments as being akin to estranged husbands and wives who are sharing custody of the kids. Or as brothers and sisters who occasionally poke each other in the eye, just to see what will happen.

It’s true, and it’s pathetic. And ultimately detrimental to the quality of life.

Or, as the UVA Law Blog’s title says: On Consideration, Charlottesville is Awful Actually OK

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In today’s market, much more so than the previous one(s), buyers are much more cognizant of the costs to operate a home.

Everyone can calculate the PITI payment – Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance

What’s not easily calculable by buyers is -

- How drafty is the house?

- What’s the natural gas bill?

- What’s the electric bill?

- What’s the water bill?

- Trash/recycling is a fairly fixed cost.

- Do the parents scrap over the thermostat?

- How much is my commute going to cost? (this is huge; many of my buyer clients are looking forward to the time when gas goes to $6/gallon … )

If the mortgage is going to be $2500 per month, but the utilities are $900/month, I’m thinking that my clients may be disinclined to move forward with an offer … or they might knock $30k (or some other number) off the offer price.

I said late last year that I suspect 2012 will be the year when buyers start doing energy audits as part of the home inspection process … sellers need to be prepared for this component to the home selling process.

If you’re interested in learning more about your home’s energy efficiency, Charlottesville’s Local Energy Alliance Program (LEAP) is a great place to start.

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If you’re looking for new ways to get around for fun or to work, or might be trying to live a greener lifestyle in 2012, why not try biking? In March 2010 we introduced biking directions and since then Google Maps has been sharing biking directions with cyclists across the U.S and Canada.

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I’m going to listen to the show (thanks to Charlottesville Podcast) and put up some show notes, but in the meantime, feel free to what I think was a pretty interesting hour of real estate.

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These are a few of the ideas that may come up …

If you have suggestions, please feel free to suggest them here, on Twitter, G+, Facebook …- Albemarle County real estate assessments are out … what did your house’s assessment do?
- @JimDuncan the disparity between assessments (higher) and selling price (lower)? When and why that happens.
- Seller tips on preparing your home for the spring market.
- getting sellers to understand where prices are
- Overview of numbers – transactions and prices this year versus last year
- Foreclosures and short sales’ impact
- Interest rates’ irrelevance
- The National Association of Realtors’ revisions
- Consumer confidence and expectations
- People choosing to stay put longer

Looking forward:

- When will we bottom? (not for a while)
- gas prices’ impact on housing trends
- What is next year going to look like?
- Peoples’ timelines for buying or selling (start now)

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How cool is this?

It can take anywhere from six weeks to six months to build a 2,800-square-foot, two-story house in the U.S., mostly because human beings do all the work. Within the next five years, chances are that 3D printing (also known by the less catchy but more inclusive term additive manufacturing) will have become so advanced that we will be able to upload design specifications to a massive robot, press print, and watch as it spits out a concrete house in less than a day. Plenty of humans will be there, but just to ogle.

Wow.

So I might want to invest in concrete stocks.

As noted earlier today, this technology may one day become “normal” or the “new normal” or simply “what we’re building with now.”

It might take less than a week to build a concrete house using this technology, but I’d wager it would take at least three to five years to get approval from Albemarle’s Architectural Review Board.

h/t InstaPundit

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A reader asks –

Hi, Jim: I’m amazed and annoyed that most listings do not mention internet service, nor do RE sites include that information as a search parameter. Knowing the availability – and speed – of internet connection is especially necessary when seeking a home outside Charlottesville. Short of investigating through local ISP’s for particular addresses or neighborhoods, do you have any suggestion? I do not trust sellers or, frankly, seller’s agents, to know or tell the truth.

In the Charlottesville area, the City of Charlottesville and the urban ring definitely* have broadband connectivity, as do many (most?) of the more densely-populated areas of Greene, Louisa, Louisa. * Definitely = 99% sure.

My suggestions and insight to ascertain broadband connectivity in the Charlottesville area:

1a – Ask your buyer broker. A good one is going to know with reasonable accuracy whether an area is likely to have internet service.

1b – If you’re really interested, the only way to ensure there is broadband service is to contact the service provider. In the Charlottesville MSA, we have Comcast, Embarq, Blue Ridge Internetworks, Verizon in some of the outlying areas, and a couple smaller fiber providers. *Nelson County just lost some broadband connectivity.

2 – A note to listing agents: when a buyer asks, “does this house have internet?” they aren’t asking about Wildblue or dial-up.

3 – I’ve asked the fine folks who power the “search for homes” feature of my site to add internet availability as a search option, but here’s the problem: GIGO. Just last year, the Charlottesville MLS added “internet availability” to the list of features listing agents can select, joining the ranks of # of bedrooms, # of bathrooms, acreage, etc.
But … As “internet availability” isn’t a required field in the MLS, it’s liable to be left out. And as we all know – if it’s blank, it’s not searchable. Thus, the search and results will be inaccurate, not useful, frustrating and bad for everyone – buyers searching, sellers trying to sell and agents running real estate blogs.

4 – To the trust aspect – get a good buyer broker who you can trust. I’ll address this aspect in more detail with clients. As clients said recently about the photos some realtors take to market their properties – “All pictures tell a story, and some aren’t true.”

5 – I wish that the internet service providers would offer maps and overlays to let people determine where service is, but presumably that information is a competitive thing for them.

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… I don’t see “become a landlord” anywhere the the federal government’s enumerated powers.

Until the Federal Government stops trying to “fix” the housing market, recovery is going to be delayed. EVERYTHING they do injects uncertainty, fear, concern and uncertainty into the economy and housing market.

This stuff matters to the Charlottesville real estate economy, not so much because we have a vast backlog of foreclosures (I don’t think it’s vast) but because the housing economy, driven my national policies and lending and processes – real estate titling, real estate financing, robosigning, consumer sentiment is national. The national “# of home sales” are mostly irrelevant, but the systems are national.

But what do I know?

The WSJ notes on its opinion page:

The Fed also suggests having Fan and Fred weaken their standards for loan modifications and expand an existing refinancing program to include private-insurance-backed mortgages participate. But weak lending standards is part of what created the subprime mortgage mess. No wonder the mortgage bankers, the homebuilders and the rest of the housing lobby greeted the Fed’s white paper with enthusiasm. They’d love to see Fannie and Freddie more politically and economically entrenched so reformers can’t slowly reduce their market dominance.

The Fed will no doubt justify all of this by claiming that the larger economy can’t recover until housing does. Yet this confuses cause and effect. Housing recoveries don’t lead economic recoveries; they occur as part of the larger recovery as incomes begin to rise and consumer confidence grows. It’s precisely this “housing must save the day” mentality that caused the Fed to keep interest rates too low for too long after the dot-com bust and 9/11. This promoted the housing bubble and led to the mania and crash. By force-feeding a housing recovery, the Fed is misallocating resources that will make the expansion less durable.

Naked Capitalism has an excellent analysis with this telling summation:

Despite its efforts to muster data, this Fed is badly blinkered by the fact that it operates inside a club. Anyone who has done research in areas where the data stinks (and it does in the housing arena) will tell you you have to do primary research, but economists are allergic to that (Nobel prize winner Wassily Leontief found that less than 0.5% of the articles published in top economics journals were based on data developed by the authors). The Fed is unduly influenced by the view of people who are part of the problem, and it shows in this paper.

Government Set to Sell Foreclosures in Bulk (CNBC)

Fed: How Fannie and Freddie Are Hurting the Housing Market (CNBC)

Housing Policy Changes (CR)

Three Fed Officials Urge Action to Boost Housing (WSJ)

The Federal Reserve’s housing White Paper (pdf)

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Now: Converted riverside mills, restored Victorian bungalows, and a central location primed this historic district to be the city’s hottest new hood. Más restaurant’s open-air deck and Spanish tapas like creamy croquetas de jamón first lured crowds from nearby downtown in 2001.

A point of clarification: Belmont’s not new. And I’m not sure who thinks Belmont is a “secret.”

I’ve written about Belmont a few times over the past few years, most recently when I noted the opening of The Farm; it’s a cool neighborhood close to many of things that draw people to Charlottesville (and keep them here).

This photo series by Kathryn Wagner remains one of my favorite depictions of Belmont; I love riding my bike to show houses in Belmont – it’s the best way to get a feel for the neighborhood, the smells from kitchens and restaurants, to see all the back (and front) yard gardens … to really feel the neighborhood.

Mas has a nice description of Belmont and this is the Belmont – Carlton neighborhood association’s site.

Either way, it’s neat to see one of Charlottesville’s neighborhoods recognized, but as always, take the brief depiction with a grain of salt … there’s more to Belmont.

If you’re interested, these are some of the homes on the market in Belmont – I’ve been in most of them, so feel free to ask me about them.

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To those of you who have read and continue to read, send me tips and thoughts and to the buyers and sellers whom I have met and worked with over the years, I offer a simple and humble thank you.

While the format of this site has changed many times, the intent has not – to provide clear and transparent analysis about the Charlottesville real estate market devoid of spin, reflecting my thoughts and opinions about the local real estate market, local politics affecting real estate and other such matters. Sometimes I write about my phones. Sometimes about technology that makes marketing real estate better for me and for my clients.

I know I’ve written about this before but I can’t find it – while Facebook and Twitter and Google+ and tumblr and posterous and and and and … are hugely ginormous behemoths, I don’t intend to build their real estate online as I do to build my own; my online hub and home remains this blog, and always will.

Make no mistake – the number one thing that writing RealCentralVA has done is forced me and allowed me the path to become a better real estate professional. I know more, I read more, I’m aware of more, I’m aware of more that I don’t know, I understand the context of real estate in the local, state and national economies … by reading, writing and practicing real estate every day, I’m better positioned and prepared to do what I love – represent my clients as I guide them through life-altering decisions.

These are a few stories of note; frankly, with over 3700 stories written since 4 January 2005, I briefly looked at the RealCentralVA archives and picked a few that interested me.

- RealCentralVA has outlasted a lot of others; most notably the Daily Progress’ links prior to 27 March 2008. Apparently blogging is dead. Again.

- The Meadowcreek Parkway continues to be a shining example of local governments’ collective inability to work together.

- The Charlottesville bubble blog has been one of the most welcome additions – they’ve provided rattling insight and opinions. One day I’ll find out who they are. For now, I’m happy to reflect on the interviews with them.

- I’m now riding my bicycle as often as possible to show houses.

- We launched a new real estate brokerage – Nest Realty – (Meet Nest) – that has changed the dynamic of how real estate brokerage is done in Central Virginia. (Have you seen our signs?) Or our community videos?

- One of my predictions has rung true. Real estate brokerage continues to shift.

- My blogging philosophy has not changed; I want to write, share my thoughts and opinions and not speak a party line about the real estate market (or anything for that matter)

- As I said in 2009, without this blog, I wouldn’t still be a Realtor.

- I’m using video a lot more now.

- Single agent dual agency, something I have long advocated as horribly bad and beneficial only to the real estate agents involved, while not outlawed in the Commonwealth of Virginia, is going to be much more difficult for Realtors to convince buyers and sellers to agree to. The now-mandated dual agency disclosures are simple and clear, starting with:

1. That following the commencement of dual standard agency, the licensee will be unable to advise either party as to the terms, offers or counteroffers; however, under the limited circumstances specified in subsection C, the licensee may have previously discussed such terms with one party prior to the commencement of dual standard agency;

All told, it’s been a fascinating seven years. I am entering my 10th year of being a real estate agent, and love what I do and love my clients. Every day brings new things to learn, new opportunities and new people with whom to work.

I won’t bore you any longer with this brief look at the history of this little site; if you have questions about the Charlottesville real estate market, please contact me anytime. My cell phone is 434-242-7140. I’m happy to talk (almost) anytime.

If you’re so inclined, please subscribe to updates, either by email or RSS. I sincerely appreciate your time, comments and reading.

PS -

1 – If you’re a consumer trying to understand the market, please feel free to contact me anytime; challenge me, question me – I’m always open to conversations about real estate.

2 – If you’re a real estate agent who wants to “blog for leads” – DON’T. Write for yourself and for understanding. You and your blog will be better for it. Consumers aren’t stupid; they know when you’re not being genuine or authentic.

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Do Real Estate Assessments Matter?

What do real estate assessments mean?

From a visitor:

… tidbit of info. – Nelson Co. assesses real estate every 5 years. I just received the assessment of our second home in Wintergreen. In 2006 it assessed at $599K, now $385K — down 36%

2012 is going to prove very interesting in the Charlottesville region.

The Washington Post reports (hat tip: Calculated Risk)

“We’ll see, over the next few years, the real impact of the recession and housing crisis on local governments,” said Andrew Reschovsky, a professor of public affairs and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin at Madison who has studied the effects of the recession on city finances. “I think the case can be made that we have not yet seen the worst of the impact on local governments. . . . That seems to be accelerating.” … The worst may be yet to come.

“That storm has not yet hit,” Frank Alexander, a professor and housing law expert at Emory University, said of the looming decline in property tax revenues, which he and others agree will last years. “It’s beginning in 2011, but it’s really going to hit in 2012 and 2013.”

For some context, see the story I wrote in January of 2011 – Charlottesville Assessments are Coming! Assessments are Coming! (2011 version).

There is only so much that the localities can raise rates and modify budgets. At some point, services are likely to be cut … dramatically.

One note:

It would be great if the City of Charlottesville offered a GIS solution for the public, as every other locality does. Sadly, they continue to be negligent.

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Beta Beat has an extremely alarming story:

But there’s a nightmare scenario: if banks learn how to use social media, they could gather information they aren’t allowed to ask for on a credit application—including race, marital status and receipt of public assistance—or worse, to redline segments of the social graph.

In other words: choose your online friends wisely, for they may one day determine your APR.

And if you don’t have a Facebook account? Maybe you won’t even be considered for a loan.

(the image above is my social graph on LinkedIn – are we connected?)

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Extra points if you know you live in a development area.

It’s a pretty vague survey. Hopefully the comments will provide insight. I choose to live here because we like it here.From the Newsplex:

The commission is using a government grant to perform the survey and develop a comprehensive plan – including transportation and livability – to sustain local communities. They hope the survey will “maximize community engagement in the process and to encourage collaboration across municipal boundaries.”

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The rest of the series –

- Crozet
- Ivy
- Charlottesville

29 North has it all – great neighborhoods, neighborhood schools, Target, Bonefish Grill, Panera, Harris Teeter – and it’s sort of hard to define. For some, it’s anything north of Rio Road, for others, it’s north of Polo Grounds Road. Either way, 29 North offers excellent accessibility to “stuff.”

Some of the neighborhoods in the 29 North area:

- Forest Lakes
- Bentivar
- Hollymead
- Homes for sale that offer a great commute for those going to NGIC or DIA or the UVA Research Park

Stay tuned … we have more coming!

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Listen to the podcast of my discussion with Coy Barefoot as we look back at the 2011 Charlottesville real estate market and a look forward to 2012.

Attitudes of Young Americans Bode Ill for Housing Recovery (Forbes) – This is something that is going to affect all real estate markets, not just Charlottesville’s, for years (decades?).

The lack of assets isn’t the only encumbrance to housing: Echo Boomers value education, people and leisure more than other American generations.  Of the Echo Boomers I spoke with, 13% were homeowners, yet less than a third reported interest in owning a home someday (with female Echo Boomers wanting homes more than male Echo Boomers).  They preferred graduate degrees, living in social areas (not suburbs) and freedom instead of homeownership.  A few of these Echo Boomers will need a decade to pay off their student loans after which another large loan, like a mortgage, might lack appeal.  And while suburbs seem to offer community and safety, they also add transportation costs with a lack of social diversity.

Goodbye, 0-5 Buyer -OR- Finance a House or an Education? (RealCentralVA)

People are staying in their homes longer – whether by choice or necessity. If selling is not a viable option, you need to fall in love with your house all over again.

Residential Remodeling Index at new high in October (Calculated Risk)

Now in Vogue: Practical Remodeling (Wall Street Journal)

UVA Credit Union’s Power Saver Loan-

These new PowerSaver loans will offer qualified homeowners up to $25,000 to make energy-efficient improvements of their choice, such as replacement doors and windows, metal or asphalt roofs, HVAC systems, water heaters, insulation, duct sealing, solar panels, ground source heat pump systems and more.

Interest Rates are still historically low – and they won’t start to matter until they rise.

Shadow Inventory – What will it’s affect be on the Charlottesville real estate market?

(thanks to KCM Blog for pointing this out)*”So far” is defined as 1/1/11 – 12/1/11 vs 1/1/10 – 12/1/10.

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Redfields Rezoning Denied (Charlottesville Tomorrow) – I suspect that even though it’s denied, this isn’t the end of this story.

The Buyer Pool Revisited (San Diego Castles) Click through for one of the funniest graphics depicting buyers’ expectations in this market. Also a reminder: There is NO National Housing Market.

Student loan debt — and default — will hurt home sales (VARBuzz) – This is something we discussed here a few months ago; the higher education bubble is one that is going to affect everything for years to come.

Living by Default (The New Yorker) – Defaulting strategically makes a lot of sense sometimes.

Best Parking Job Ever. (Bill Risser) – It’s funny. Watch it. And please don’t do this to my car.

I love PolitiFact.

Did you see how Americans’ rights are about to be stripped? So much for being the “land of the free.”

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See the rest of the Live Where you Love Videos –

- Charlottesville, Virginia
- Ivy, Virginia

(Search for homes and real estate for sale in Crozet)

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Much has been made of the reinstatement as of October 1, 2011 of the FHA high cost loan limits. In actuality, this will have no effect on Central Virginia borrowers.

To provide some background, if we exclude portfolio, VA, USDA and VHDA loans, which only reach a small percentage of borrowers, then conventional conforming, conventional non-conforming and FHA are the three routes to go to finance a new purchase or a refinance. For conventional loans, which are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the current year’s limits are $417,000 nationwide and a maximum of $625,500 (150% of the nationwide limit) for high cost areas, county by county.  

For FHA loans, HUD establishes a County by County review . Since October 1st, the high limit is $729,750 and the “floor” even in the lowest cost areas is $271,050. Any loan over $417,000 or the high cost limit in your county would cause a choice of either jumbo (non-conforming) pricing, which can be as high as 1% higher or conforming loan limit with a home equity line or loan second. HUD finally released a mortgagee letter on Friday, December 2nd with the new loan limits, so lenders can actually start originating them.

So, what does the reinstated limits in the Charlottesville MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson) really mean? Nothing. We have the same loan limits of $437,000 (slightly high cost) now as we had before. There wasn’t even any change in Staunton or Waynesboro ($271,050), Harrisonburg ($277,150), Lynchburg’s MSA ($292,100) or Richmond MSA ($535,900). The effect was felt in Northern Virginia, where they lost their high limits.

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