In June 2005, I wrote:

Tuesday dozens of people showed up for the groundbreaking of Greene County’s first active adult community. The community will have more than 500 lots and will include a 16,000 sq. ft. clubhouse. Project mangers believe the community will be an asset for the county. From WCAV.

Age-restricted communities are sorely lacking in our market. I receive a request from buyers for this type of community at least twice a month. These communities have the potential to be a fantastic asset to our region. Seniors typically bring affluence, knowledge and no drain on community resources; read: School systems.

And then in 2009, (also see the Charlottesville Bubble Blog) – the development was foreclosed on.

Most of the nearly 204 acres upon which the Four Seasons age restricted development sits in Ruckersville off U.S. 33 is set to be sold at auction Jan. 22.

But one local realtor says it doesn’t mean the sky is falling, and zoning officials assure residents that the zoning will not change.

In June of 2005 Fried Companies and K. Hovnanian Homes broke ground on nearly 204 acres off U.S. 33 near Advance Mills Road in Ruckersville to make way for the construction of Greene’s first age-restricted gated community.

The Four Seasons Active Adult Community was to consist of 535 homes starting in the lower $300,000 range and a 16,000-square-foot clubhouse for athletic and recreational activities. It was expected to generate at least $1.5 to $1.75 million in real estate taxes annually, representing 9 percent of the county’s then-general fund local source revenue – along with another $1.5 million in sales tax each year.

Since then, the real estate market slumped, recession hit.

The funny thing is – the demand for one-level living is still in the Charlottesville market. The Four Seasons development was, the wrong product in the wrong location (read the comments).

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Courtesy of the C-Ville blog citing a newsletter from the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors -

All those home builders banking on selling houses to new National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) employees may be in for a rude awakening. An estimate from the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors (CAAR) is that only 30 to 40 percent of employees will relocate, the rest not wishing to unsettle spouses and children.

Since NGIC’s expansion was announced several years ago, projects like North Pointe and Hollymead have gotten underway with some expectation of capitalizing on the people

…

“There will be an effect on the local real estate market, but probably NOT 900 new home owners,” said the newsletter. “Many expressed an interest in renting in the Charlottesville area and continuing to maintain their home in northern Virginia.”

D’oh.

Some of those relocating here may not have a choice regarding not selling their homes – many in NoVa have lost so much equity that they cannot afford to sell.

With that preface -

Relocation map – NGIC is in the 29 North region

Posts of enduring interest for buyers

This is where I point prospective buyers/renters – the rental market is far more fragmented with the “for sale” market -

The HooK’s classifieds

C-Ville’s classifieds

Daily Progress

Blue Ridge Apartment Council

Craigslist

Charlottesville MLS

While I make my living representing buyers and seller clients, often it is in their best interest to rent for at least six months to get a feel of the area, a lay-of-the-land, if you will. By giving honest rather than self-serving (buy now!!) advice, I hope and expect that they will reward my candor with loyalty, even if only to refer a friend or family member to me if they themselves don’t purchase.

More on NGIC coming next week …

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That seems to be the case in today’s news concerning one component of the NGIC/Military Base expansion underway. Reports Charlottesville Tomorrow … (bolding mine)

Two weeks ago, Wood asked the County to allow him to change the layout of two four-story office buildings in the Boulders Office Complex. What was to be basement storage with low ceilings Wood would like to be basement space with ceilings closer to height of a typical office floor. Storage space, however, is required to have ceilings no taller than 6 feet 6 inches. County staff told Charlottesville Tomorrow that it appears the basement of one building under construction has already been readied with bathrooms and HVAC in anticipation of future use. With ceilings placed higher than the storage space maximum, the basements become a new floor on the buildings that could be occupied for future offices, thus requiring Wood to build 200 additional parking spaces, or seek a waiver from that standard. Wood has requested a reduction in the parking requirements, presumably because the taller space will still be used for storage needs of his tenant and not for employees needing parking.

…

Wood’s commercial office complex is developing independent of the nearby military base expansion projects. Ground was recently broken on a $58.5 million Joint Use Intelligence Analysis Facility (JUIAF) located on about 47 acres of land the federal government purchased from Wood. JUIAF will join the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) as part of the growing military base. Wood’s commercial project has been described by the military as something that would support the work at the base by, for example, providing space for private military contractors.

…

Mark Graham joined the meeting in the afternoon and provided the Board with additional information about Wood’s request and the review process. “Everything we have [heard about the use] is anecdotal right now, quite frankly….Because we have heard storage is actually laboratory space as well, so we are trying to get a better handle on what the real use of this space is,” said Graham.

You can’t say no, I’ve already built it! It would be helpful for everybody involved to know how many jobs will be coming here from Fort Belvoir (among other places) as part of the BRAC. (I’m still a little bit stunned that the Charlottesville area now has an official “Military Base” – Rivanna Station – I wonder if they’ll be getting a PX).

More people should mean more parking spaces, regardless of this fact:

… 1,000 people would be coming, only 625 new parking spaces were being built. Moffatt has to meet the federal government’s goal in new construction of only providing parking for 60% of the employees. Slutzky said he was glad to hear about that requirement. “It forces all of us to have to address it and that’s how we get transit results.”

Chicken, meet egg.

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Very little has changed since last month’s comprehensive market analysis, published just over a month ago.

First, a quick look back at my responses to the calls of “bottom” over the past eighteen months.

(photo courtesy)

- The market is a bit like the axiom – “a watched pot never boils.” We won’t know how the market is doing today until we look back from a six- to nine-month removed perspective. We can gain insight by looking at the numbers – interest rates, 10 year Treasury notes, pending sales, recent solds … but to get an accurate understanding, we have to look in the rear-view mirror. December 2006

- We’ll know whether we’ve hit bottom today in 18 months when we have the benefit of hindsight. Interest rates remain low. Sellers are motivated, and it really and truly is a great time to buy a house – so long as you do the appropriate due diligence, detach your emotions and negotiate well. September 2007

- I think that the calls for the proverbial “bottom” are premature. When I was a kid I wouldn’t know the bottom of the swimming hole until my toes dug down into the muck and I was heading rapidly back to the surface. Our current market is very much the same. We won’t know when we hit bottom until we have the benefit of 18 months of hindsight – or, to continue the swimming hole metaphor, until we’ve crawled out and told our friends – holy cow! It’s really deep! April 2008

- We may not have seen the worst of what this cycle has to offer. I believe that the bulk of short-term ARMs have not yet reset, and until this happens (likely in 2009 and 2010) we may not see the proverbial “bottom.’ That being said, we won’t know the bottom until we have the benefit of nine to eighteen months of hindsight. June 2008

- The problem with saying we’ve “hit bottom” is that we don’t have anything to base that on other than speculation Yesterday on Twitter

Even Barron’s is saying that we might have hit bottom; the Big Picture respectfully disagrees.

At least I’m consistent. I’m not saying that we haven’t hit the bottom, but that calling it as such with so many unknowns and new variables in the equation would be the wrong thing to do right now, despite Lawrence Yun’s statement – “Without Forecasts, we don’t look credible.”

The Realtor update (1):

1st half 2005: 115 had more than ten sides, 296 had more than five sides, 679 had at least one, with about five hundred or so not having a single transaction

1st half 2006: 107 had more than ten sides, 285 had more than five sides, 740 had at least one, about four hundred fifty not having one.

1st half 2007: 73 had more than ten sides, 232 had more than five, 687 had at least one, about four hundred with zero

1st half 2008: 44 had more than ten sides, 169 had more than five, 619 had had least one, leaving about seven hundred with zero transactions so far this year. (out of 1201 sold residential properties)

From the DP on Saturday:

Many real estate agents may not manage to weather the moribund market before it solidly rebounds, Savage said. A full 15 percent of the Charlottesville area’s 1,110 real estate agents are expected to drop out of the business by January.

“We’re seeing a lot of good Realtors leave the business,” she said, citing the example of two agents in their mid-30s who are quitting soon.

“It’s been a tough time for sellers and it’s been a tough time for Realtors,” Savage said.

Personally, this has been one of the hardest parts of this market – seeing good people leave.

Related reading: A Market in Transition – October 2006

An interesting note: 115 agents have done Dual Agency so far this year (and at least one who has spoken openly against the practice), versus 140 last year and 190 in 2006.

Market Update (2): – Click images for larger versions

Courtesy of one of my favorite writers in the real estate space:

“It’s a buyer’s market… only if you’re actually buying,” I say, having gone through this same exchange on more than a few occasions in recent months.

- This too shall pass. We’ve been in this downturn for about twenty months now. I predict that we will start to come out of it in the Spring of 2009 at the earliest. Nothing is going to happen before the election, and little is likely to change before December of 2008. Early 2009 will be the time to recover, take our collective breaths and hope for what 2009 will bring. There are too many unknowns right now to make any sort of accurate prediction.

- All real estate cycles come around, and this one will be no different. I subscribe to an outlook that is a mix of Calculated Risk and Nouriel Roubini, in that this recession may look like a “U” rather than a “V” and I sincerely hope that it will not look like an “L.”

- New construction coming onto the market has slowed dramatically, and the number of builders in the Central Virginia region is waning. Ultimately, this may be a good thing.

- Those who survive this downturn (God-willing I’ll be one of them) will come out on the other side far stronger and knowledgeable about the market.

Managing fear is an ongoing task. News about IndyMac and the bailout of Fannie and Freddie is inescapable. Why is nobody listening to this man?

First half market report 2007, with interesting comments.

1 – Realtor Update includes Charlottesville, Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, Louisa and Nelson, ~1200 agents total, a “side” is either the buying or selling side of a transaction

2 – Includes Charlottesville, Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna and Nelson

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I almost titled this post, “ARB? We don’t need no stinkin’ ARB!” But thought better of it.

Albemarle County has an Architectural Review Board that micromanages minutiae.

Greene County does not.

Both Wal-Mart and Lowe’s said they will begin building their new stores there in the spring and fall, respectively. They will serve as anchors for the Gateway Center, a new retail shopping center in Greene County.

Unlike other shopping centers, there isn’t an artist’s rendering available for the Gateway Center; the future of the site’s appearance depends on which businesses move in.
…
“There will be space for smaller retail stores to lease, but the exact location and design have yet to be determined,” Hughes said.
…
Officials know the layout of the site, said Steve Catalano, chairman of the Greene County Board of Supervisors. However, the county doesn’t have an architectural control committee.
…
Catalano said the board did request that the site have “a tasteful appearance.” (bolding mine)

Greene County absolutely needs these stores. The closest “big-box” stores are in Culpeper, about 45 minutes north and Charlottesville, about 20-30 minutes south. The segmentation of our region continues, and I can’t determine yet whether this is a good or a bad development.

What this does mean for certain is that traveling Route 29 is going to become even more time-consuming and frustrating.

View Larger Map

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What a difference a year makes.

The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors releases its Third Quarter Market report today. (The full PDF report is here)

There were 2,875 homes sold in the first nine months of 2007, which was down 647 (-18.4%) from last year. All local areas (Albemarle -17.8%, Charlottesville -25.6%, Fluvanna -21.5%, Greene -34.7%, Louisa -18.5%, and Nelson -21.5%) posted lower sales than the same period last year. Looking at the past 6 years (see chart below), our region has returned to a sales level just above 2003 – which was a record at the time.

Interestingly, this report comes on the heels of a post at Inman News that asks this of the National Association of Realtors:

But enough’s enough with the spin. Why can’t they just tell it like it is? Some markets are doing fine, but many are struggling. And while the jobs forecast and interest rate outlook appear to be in good shape, the mortgage market remains a huge wildcard. Prices are falling in many markets, which complicates the delinquency equation as many mortgages continue to reset at higher rates and higher monthly payments.

The new Charlottesville report seems to have less spin than many of the previous ones, which is beneficial to everybody – buyers and seller, the public, the media and the Realtors (and their credibility).

One aspect of the report that needs clarification is this – when looking at non-locality-specific numbers, the numbers they use are for the entire MLS, not just our market area, which I have noted several times before skews the numbers.

In the City of Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa and Nelson Counties, as of 14 October, 2007:

There are 2,492 properties actively on the market right now.
2,444 properties have sold since the first of the year. (Down 22% versus 2006, down 25% versus 2005, down 19% versus 2004 and down 4.5% when contrasted with 2003)

Currently, we have 3,471 homes on the market and the median price of these homes is $329,000. The average DOM of these homes is 126 days. There are 588 homes for sale under $200,000 with an average DOM of 120. There are 262 homes currently on the market priced at a million dollars or more with an average DOM of 154.

There are 367 homes under $200k on the market (and I don’t have the ability to do the average DOM for that many properties) and there are 170 homes over one million dollars on the market.

A few choice quotes from the report, decidedly un-spun:

In the early part of the decade, we saw extremely low inventory levels of around 4 or 5 months of supply. This caused home prices to soar, as buyers were forced to make aggressive offers to purchase the home they wanted. Today, we have a 20-month supply of homes on the market, which is very high and possibly a record. We are just entering a quieter selling season with the holidays approaching, so we will likely see a continuation of high inventory into the spring. First-time buyers, who don’t have a home to sell, have an extraordinary opportunity in this market.
…
The seasonal aspect of the Charlottesville area real estate market allows us to draw year-end conclusions based on the first three quarters. The balance of the year is the “slow” time for sales, so unless there is a dramatic real estate swing, the third quarter will be reflective of the year-end situation. That means we will end the year with the 4th highest year for sales reported to the CAAR MLS. Prices will continue to rise slowly and inventory will continue to be the big story in the market.

Take note: the lenders do not consider the Charlottesville area a “declining market,” which is declared after a market has witnessed several consecutive quarterly declines. From an email from one of the lenders with whom I work : Northern Virginia is getting hammered; these counties are listed as being “declining markets” – Fairfax, Arlington, Clarke, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Fauquier, Prince William, Loudoun, Including the following cities: Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park – sharing the page with Florida and California.

In closing, we see little in this report that is different than the trends we have been tracking all year. Patience and preparation are key virtues for both buyers and sellers.

I’m sticking by my predictions from 1 January of 2007.

As always, all stories about our market statistics are here.

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Between the first of January 2006 to the 8th of January 2006, 225 properties were listed. For that same timeframe for this year, 132 residential properties have been listed.*

There were 23 price changes in this timeframe in 2006 versus 60 price changes in 2007. Without a way to determine whether these were changes upwards or down, this is honestly a bit of a shot in the dark; my very educated guess is that these price changes in 2007 were more down than up.

Witness this new construction property in Crozet that came on the market last June – it started at one million three hundred forty nine thousand and was just reduced to $899,000!

—

NB: Contrast what follows with what was released in yesterday’s End of 2006 market report:

One factor that affects the DOM statistic is inventory. If inventory is low, then there are fewer properties for buyers to consider and properties sell more quickly. CAAR tracks the number of new listings that come on the market each quarter to help us monitor the inventory of available homes. As of early January 2007, our database has 2,504 homes actively listed for sale.

What that 2504 number includes is every county that is in our database! Including only our MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Fluvanna and Nelson), there are as of 10 January 2006, 1672 properties actively on the market. See what a little digging into the numbers reveals?

For example, there are 184 properties on the market in Madison and Orange Counties – at least 35-45 minutes north and north east of Charlottesville. There are 14 on the market in Rockbridge County (home of my alma mater) – at least an hour and fifteen minutes away (realistically 90 minutes).

Less inventory is a good thing, at least in this transitional market.

* Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Fluvanna, Nelson
* This post was inspired by Rob’s continuous tracking of his market. All real estate is local. 
* I have not seen an analysis such as this anywhere else.

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Biscuit Run, the proposed development to the south of the City has been revised downwards from a proposed 5,000 homes to 3,500 homes. The traffic study work session next month should be interesting.

As always, Cvilletomorrow has much more information as well as a podcast of the planning commission’s meeting.

Wal-mart is finally coming to Greene County! If only NBC29 will stop with the bringing “green” to Greene lines. Hardy-har-har. So clever. There has been much discussion locally about the merits of Wal-mart, but I do know that my clients in Greene will welcome this addition to their community. Soon they won’t have to go to Culpeper or CharlAlbemarle,

Yesterday at an open house for a new development, I was interested to see that their solution, as approved by the County, to the affordable housing situation is to provide affordable “accessory apartments. (pdf)” At least it’s something. More at the County’s website.

Fluvanna’s clustering is moving forward and Daniel has his thoughts on the newest Fluvanna development.

Piedmont Environmental Council’s new report says that we have enough housing in the pipeline. (pdf)

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – studies that consider only Charlottesvile/Albemarle or Fluvanna or Greene are too myopic for today’s settlement and travel patterns. We need to look at development and its benefits and impacts from at least a regional point of view.

Housing inventory is up, but development plugs on, and for many, that’s a good thing. The various development industries add so much to our local economy that many don’t realize. Managed appropriately, growth can be good. Might as well attempt manage it, because it seems it’s going to happen anyway.

Tracking all of these things is almost a full-time job!

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And inventory is up.

Rates are low.
Home price appreciation is slowing.
Inventory is up. Significantly.

note: as soon as I figure out how to upload an image via coding, rather than depending on my normal program, I will.

Regarding NAR’s press release: They have an obligation to present the facts, and their best opinions. Everybody has opinions and interpretation of data. Assumptions and conclusions may (and usually do) differ.

Take this for example:

Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dipped 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.18 million units in September from a level of 6.30 million in August, and were 14.2 percent below the 7.20 million-unit pace in September 2005, which was the third strongest month on record.

And compare NAR’s spin:

“The good news is that fewer new listings are coming online. A stable sales pace is expected to draw down the number of listings to a supply balance that will support positive price growth within a few months. Taking the long view is always the best way to approach housing decisions, and right now, buyers are in a very favorable market.”

With the Calculated Risk’s “alternate” take on the report:

Sales plummeted 16.3% from September 2005. This is a record YoY (Year over Year) Sales decline.

Median Prices dropped 2.2% from September 2005. Bloomberg: “… the biggest year- over-year decline since record-keeping began in 1969.”

Locally in the Charlottesville region (inclusive of Charlottesville/Albemarle/Fluvanna/Greene/Louisa/Nelson), the market has slowed. Using a quick YoY analysis, in September of 2005, 333 residential properties closed. In September 2006, 211 closed – quite a drop year over year.

Listings under contract – September 2005 – 305 listings went under contract. In September 2006 – 214. Sit down. Take a breath. It will be ok.

And here you have the Virginia roundup from The Housing Bubble Blog, while Dewita’s calling NoVa a Buyers’ Market. A different one, but a Buyers’ Market all the same.

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I moved this to its own story, from today’s “Links” post, because they represent the second builder (Ryan was first) to announce major changes. Interestingly, while local builders have seemingly made some significant changes to their pricing and development strategies, it is the national builders who seem most affected. Perhaps the smaller builders are more nimble and able to alter their course? Were national builders more prone to over-extending themselves? I don’t yet know, but remain interested in these developments.

The Greene development is K. Hovnavian’s only development (of which I am aware) in the Central Virginia region. Ryan is everywhere in Central Virginia. Their Four Seasons development also represents something our area desperately needs – housing designed for the 55+ segment of our population – so they do have that going for them.

Read the memo here.

These new market conditions have affected us in many ways and will continue to affect us in the months ahead. In the area of land acquisition we have been re-evaluating our current land positions and the contracts for new land in the light of these new conditions. Many of those contracts no longer make good financial sense when you factor in lower prices and a slower sales pace.

Time will tell …

Inman has the story as well.

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*Active in August 2006: 432
Active in August 2006: 441
% change: 2.08%
Contingent: -28.74%
Pending: -34.36%
Sold: -21.95%

Very, very interesting data. What do the data tell us about the Charlottesville and Central Virginia area’s real estate market? It has slowed – significantly.

The market is very good for buyers right now – good Buyer’s Agents are advising their clients that there is sometimes significant flexibility in asking and selling price.

From a general market overview, properties are still selling for 97% of their asking price – not bad. In short, don’t believe all the doom and gloom reporting. The market is different. There are more houses on the market now than there have been in many years. Is this a “sky-is-falling” scenario? Not in my humble opinion – market “normalization/cooling/equilibrium” – whatever you want to call it – qualifies as a “good thing.”

A return to a market where the timeframe in which houses are sold and resold is measured in years rather than months is healthy for everybody.

Daniel has the County-by-County breakdown.

*Only for those properties in CharlAlbemarle, Fluvanna, Greene.

New construction numbers in Charlottesville/Albemarle:

Sold from June 1 2006 to September 1 2006: 106
Sold from June 1 2005 to September 1 2005: 140
Sold from June 1 2004 to September 1 2004: 119
Sold from June 1 2003 to September 1 2003: 111

Was 2005 an anomaly? These numbers seem to suggest that the reports of the new construction market’s demise have been – how do they say it – greatly exaggerated? Now, if I were to delve in and see how many now are offering incentives and upgrades …

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The past few months have seen some significant changes in our market. It’s not just the interest rates, though – they’ve actually gone down a bit of late. I am running the numbers a little bit differently as well.

*Active in July 2005: 456
Active in July 2006: 418
% change: -8.33%
Contingent: -16.74%
Pending: -29.31%
Sold: -20.02%

In short – the market has slowed. Some would say tremendously. Surprisingly, there were fewer properties on the market in July 2006 versus July 2005, but fewer of those are going under contract. The greatest jump in new-to-the-market inventory was in the second quarter of this year. The big difference is that more of these properties are staying on the market.

From an aggregate point of view, May, June and July -

There were nearly 4% more properties on the market for this time period in 2006 when contrasted with 2005, yet not nearly as many going under contract.

March/June/July

Active: 3.82%
Contingent: -2.32%
Pending: -13.48%
Sold: -5.62%

Bottom line (except for the asterisks): Real estate remains a wise investment. Everybody’s expectations need to be re-evaluated: buyers have time to decide, sellers need patience and agents need educating. The jump of discretionary sellers to the market may have reached or passed its plateau. One month is not enough to make that conclusion, but it may be an indication. Time will tell.

*Only for those properties in CharlAlbemarle, Fluvanna and Greene. As fuel prices have risen, the market has shrunk a bit.

**I excluded neither condos nor new construction for this analysis. Accessing and processing the raw data is extraordinarily time-consuming.

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This is progress? Hat tip to Outskirts.

Low-tech productivity gains a following. I have read 43folders for some time. Whenever someone asks me what the best gadget is for x task, my answer has always been “whatever works for you.” It just might not be the new Palm with all the bells and whistles.

Co-opetition, not com-petition. In one way, blogging is much like real estate – mutual collaboration is a major factor in one’s success. Despite my disdain for anything labeled a “buzzword” I think I like co-opetition. Locally, the cvilleblogs aggregator has contributed significantly to the local community.

Growing traffic touches everyone.

I changed the name. But I need to work on my tagline. 

I would love to know more about the goings-on of Walker Square. This marks two very negative stories I have heard (both first-hand) about Walker Square. Clarification anyone?

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The news was flooded last week with reports on the housing market’s decline. This article in the Washington Times is but one example:

The downturn in the housing market is deepening, with new home sales at a nine-year low, prices down for the fourth month in a row and mortgage applications at their lowest point in three years.
…
“We see construction diminishing somewhat and real estate prices flattening, not declining,” she said. “Clearly, however, we could be wrong on the magnitudes.”

I received this email the other day from a reader who is renting in the area -

Did you see this article in Yahoo news? I closed on my house in xxx.  Should I wait for a fall back in prices?

Maybe. Maybe not. If there is a compelling reason to to buy rather than rent and you plan to be in the area more than a short period of time, (insert my usual caveats here – if you have good credit, are mentally ready for the responsibility of owning, etc.)  then you should probably consider buying. The greatest challenge right now in the market is sellers’ expectations. They have been so conditioned to getting at least the asking price, that some are unable to see the forest for the trees. There is often more to an offer than money. Closing costs, closing dates, etc.

Take the past few days for example – I wrote four offers, all of which are fair offers, based on the recent sold comparable homes.

1) Asking price: $285k. Albemarle. Offered a net of $274k. Seller bought the property for $206k in August 2004. No deal.
2) Asking price: $200. Charlottesville. Offered $200k. Seller bought the property for $89k in 2000. Offer accepted.
3) Asking price: $295k. Greene. Offered $285k. Seller bought the property for $209 in March 2004. We were one of two offers, neither of which was accepted.
4) Asking price: $310k. Waynesboro. Offered $310k. Seller bought the property for $215k in May 2002. Offer accepted.

For all of these offers, I did comparative market analyses. Just because a Seller is asking for a certain price does not mean that is what the property is worth. That said, if a ready, willing and able buyer wants to pay full price, that property is worth full price.

The market is changing. Make no mistake. Are the tires coming off the cart? Doubtful. Are sellers’ expectations in need of adjustment? Yup.

Note: more on the Waynesboro market later.

Technorati Tags: albemarle, charlalbemarle, charlottesville, real estate

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The Weldon Cooper Center has released a study showing population increases throughout the Commonwealth. The Thomas Jefferson Planning District (our region) has seen a fairly significant increase in its population – 7.5%.

Albemarle has seen a provisional change of 7.4%.
Charlottesville – (-.5%)
Greene – 11.2%
Fluvanna – 24.4%
Louisa – 12.1%
Nelson -  4.2%

The above numbers are the total percentages, combining the natural increases and the change due to migration. Settlement patterns continue to fascinate me. Even if we don’t build the roads, apparently people continue to come here. Where, however, is the Tipping Point?

Supply and demand (and interest rates) has thus far kept housing prices increasing. With growth such as this, I think that we are on track to maintain a moderate increase in prices, so long as government stays out of the free market.

Thanks to Bacons’ Rebellion for the heads-up.

Technorati Tags: growth

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From today’s DP -

Greene County supervisors on Tuesday opened the door for a new high-end neighborhood in Ruckersville. … The 40 new one- and two-story houses likely will cost between $430,000 and $450,000 – a price range that would cover most county service costs, developer Barry Dofflemyer said. In addition, the company will give the county $2,000 in proffers for each house built.
… As for the proffers, Dofflemyer doubled the amount per home from $1,000 to $2,000. (bolding mine)

Regarding the question of proffers – is $2,000 a number that is deemed to be sufficient for these houses to integrate into the community? That number seems to me to be fairly arbitrary. The cost per student in the County schools is probably at least $5,000 per annum; a one-time proffer of $2,000 is supposed to cover the cost of students? If $2,000 is all that the County will require, that is fine, but selling the proffer as a major concession that will cover most costs – that strikes me as disingenuous. Think of the school costs, water costs, transportation, etc. I would like to see what studies the County and developer are using to come up with the $2,000 number. I love being proven wrong.

Update: from an offline commenter:

I think it is important to note (as the supes did in their meeting) at $450,000 the county generates significant additional revenue beyond the educational cost impacts.  The developer provided financial models based on .8, 1.8 and 2 children per home and all were a net positive.

Every county has a break even point for cost of a home and services provided.  Greene County does not have a proffer program yet (they are working on the CIP now).  This was truly a voluntary proffer.

This was interesting and pertinent regarding the impending Albemarle County BoS elections.

Greene likely will be the home for most of Dofflemyer’s future projects, he said, because Albemarle County has become a difficult place for a small developer to work.

Where do you think these new homeowners will work? The argument for planning for mass transit get stronger.

Technorati Tags: Central Virginia, growth

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Trying to stay regionally involved and up to date … very difficult to do. All counties are facing similar issues with growth, as shown in the respective candidate forums and public meetings.

From an article by Nancy B. Miner in the Central Virginian:

In a meeting that at times turned contentious, with more than one curt exchange between speakers and county officials, the Fluvanna County Planning Commission voted Sept. 26 to approve two by-right rural cluster subdivisions in an A-1 agriculture zone.

Growth is everywhere. Watching how the different localities deal with and manage the growth is interesting. From today’s DP, by Megan Rowe.

If you build it, they will come. This seems to be the theme for Virginia’s fifth-fastest growing county. When Fluvanna County officials begin the process of updating the county’s comprehensive plan later this fall, they will seek resident input for improvements to the county’s designated growth areas.

Trying to please 100% of the people is an impossible task, not worth attempting. Growing as efficiently and as wisely as possible should be the goal of all involved.

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Tom McCrystal has a nice post.
Conserve energy.
The NYTimes causes a stir this morning with a report on the housing market. Why does their story get so much buzz and press?

Greene faces its future with their Board of Supervisors elections.
Greene also moved closer to approving their first CIP.

Development issues in Louisa and Fluvanna. This is a novel concept -

Harrison Rue, Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission (TJPDC), acted as facilitator for the Monday, Sept. 12 meeting. He urged the group to make a conscious effort to link land use to transportation, find ways to support development that brings in jobs, create community gathering places, and attempt to answer the question, “What makes a place a place?” (Bolding mine)

Everything in this region always comes down to money, politics and growth.

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The Free Enterprise Forum’s October Newsletter has been released. As usual, there is a lot of pertinent information. Full text is below.

October 2005
Forum Watch
October  2005

IN THIS ISSUE:

Important Dates
Zoning Issues  
Master Planning
Water Supply
Transportation Policy
Other Land Use
Editorial

Important Dates
 
October 3rd – Greene County Board of Supervisors Candidate Forum – 7:00 pm William Monroe Middle School
October 8th – Charlottesville Neighborhood Design Day 9:00 – 3:00 pm Various locations see article in Master Planning
October 10th – TJPDC MPO Transportation Improvement Program Public Hearing – 5:00 pm 401 E. Water Street
October 10th – Albemarle County Jack Jouett Supervisor Candidate Forum – 7:00 pm Jack Jouett Middle School
October 17th – Albemarle County Rio District Supervisor Candidate Forum – 7:00 pm Woodbrook Elementary School
October 27th – Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority Water Supply Community Outreach meeting – 6:30 Monticello HS
October 31st – Halloween
October 31 – November 4 Places 29 Charrette #2 details to follow soon ACOB
ACOB – Albemarle County Office Building
CCH- Charlottesville City Hall
GCAB – Greene County Administration Building
FCGC – Fluvanna County Government Center

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Transportation Policy

Meadowcreek Parkway – The Free Enterprise Forum released a report indicating the Meadowcreek Parkway Project could be completed prior to the separate federally funded US 250/McIntire Meadowcreek Parkway interchange project.  The full report can be found at http://www.freeenterpriseforum.org/index.cfm/fuseaction/ViewPage/page_id/51?CFID=309539&CFTOKEN=63058528&    Despite this important report, the parkway’s future is not yet certain.  At least one City Councilor still has concerns regarding parkland issues.  This issue may or may not be resolved in the next few months.   

Charlottesville Downtown Mall Crossing – More than 100 Downtown businesses submitted a petition to City Council asking for a replacement traffic crossing on the west end of the downtown mall.  The petition was supported by the Downtown Business Alliance to assist west end businesses that would benefit from increased exposure and access. The Charlottesville Regional Chamber of Commerce has endorsed the concept. Others support the change as it will increase the number of ways drivers can cross the mall.  The downtown advisory Committee will see the plans on October 12th and the issue will go to a Planning Commission public hearing on November 8th.

FY06 Transportation Improvement Program –   The Charlottesville-Albemarle Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) is seeking public comment on the draft Fiscal Year 2006 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP).  The TIP lists federally funded road, transit, bicycle, pedestrian and related transportation projects to be undertaken in the next three years.  The first public hearing on Monday October 10th at 5:00 pm is the first step in a six month process to determine these key transportation projects.  Comments may also be submitted via e-mail to info@tjpdc.org
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Zoning Issues

Albemarle County Neighborhood Model Zoning Text Amendment – With somewhat remarkable speed the NMD Zoning text amendment was considered by the planning commission earlier this month.  The commission did not act on the amendment as they felt the scope (only focusing on the front yard setbacks) was too limited.  The Free Enterprise Forum raised a number of concerns to the commission, which were well received. 
 
Staff has not yet provided a work plan and date determined when the Zoning Text Amendment will come back before the commission.  The Free Enterprise Forum hopes that the next time around the community will have more than 14 days to review the draft document.  Stay Tuned.

Nelson County Zoning – Nelson County Board of Supervisors continue to make slow progress with the revised subdivision ordinance.  Details at http://www.nelsoncounty.com/planning/proposedzoningordinance     
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Water Issues

Community Water Supply – The Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority will have a public outreach meeting on October 27th at 6:30 to discuss the progress of the Community Water Supply project.  The latest report on the water supply project can be found here http://www.rivanna.org/documents/agenda_jul25_2005_doc5d.pdf
 
Mr. Frederick hopes to have the proposed alternative to the Rivanna Board in January and to the Regulators in February 2006.  To see the deadlines and the costs of this project please see the report at http://www.rivanna.org/documents/agenda_jul25_2005_doc6b.pdf
 
The Free Enterprise Forum does not have a preferred option but appreciates that each of the options under consideration is designed to meet the projected 50 year need for water in the community.  If the community come up with a workable solution to the 9.9 million gallon a day projected need and then permit and build it, future generations will be served by this good stewardship.
 
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Master Planning

Charlottesville Neighborhood Design Day – October 8th, 9:00 – 3:00 pm The City of Charlottesville will be hosting a number of neighborhood design meetings throughout the city.  This is the major public participation event in the city’s 2006 Comprehensive Planning process.  Details and locations of the meeting can be found at http://www.charlottesville.org/content/files/2CCD2AF7-2578-49B6-9DA3-C82AB79DD19E.pdf

Fluvanna County  In what may be one of the most overreaching decisions to date, the Free Enterprise Forum has learned that Fluvanna County is requiring Army Corps of Engineers and Virginia Department of Environmental Quality approvals on yield plans (A yield plan is a fictitious development that indicates how many units could be built on a particular parcel by right) submitted to determine density of their required cluster subdivision.    The Free Enterprise Forum believes this is an enormous waste of taxpayer dollars at a time these professionals need to be focused on our hurricane damaged Gulf Coast.

Forcing such approvals on fictitious subdivisions designed in a manner contrary to the county approved cluster plan will only increase prices and further restrict the supply available.  The Current Board of Supervisors does not seem to have great concern regarding housing affordability.  One member recently balked at the potential of regulation increasing housing prices by $10,000 or $15,000 indicating “people will buy it anyway”.

Places 29  – For those watching the process closely, Places 29 is an interesting case study of public participation and how it relates to a planning vision.   An interesting report is posted on the Albemarle County website reflecting the variety of comments that were received at the public input session.  http://www.albemarle.org/upload/images/forms_center/departments/community_development/forms/Places29/places29-wkshp1-statistics.pdf .  The Free Enterprise Forum has reviewed this lengthy report and believes it is an accurate representation of the views expresses at the meeting. 

We are very concerned that the public may not have been loud enough as in the draft vision statement and guiding principles Places 29 states “enhance the connectivity between neighborhoods” clearly at the public meeting many of the public comments focused on adesire for no interconnectivity of neighborhoods and a bypass.  Further we find it interesting that the first sentence of the Vision statement discusses “the preservation of open space… and the natural environment.” If the primary vision is to preserve the open space, is this not in conflict with the county plans to focus development in this area???

A map of the study area can be found here http://www.albemarle.org/upload/images/Forms_Center/Departments/Board_of_Supervisors/Forms/Agenda/2005Files/20050504/Northerndevelopmentattachb.pdf
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Other Land Use

Albemarle County Mountain Overlay Committee – This committee is now idle waiting for staff to draft proposed language for a Mountain Overlay District (MOD) Ordinance.  The glacial pace of the deliberations is draining many of the members.  Based on the current pace of work, The Free Enterprise Forum does not anticipate a work product from this committee until after the first of the year.  For additional details on their current deliberations, please contact neil@freeenterpriseforum.org .

Albemarle County Lighting Zoning Text Amendment The Free Enterprise Forum was successful in getting Albemarle County to agree to review submitted a zoning text amendment to ask Albemarle County to reconsider it’s prohibition of spilled light on pedestrian walkways and right of ways.  The ZTA also asks the county to allow zoning inspectors to use average lumens instead of initial lumens in their inspections. Albemarle County is clearly pushing for a more pedestrian oriented form of development.  The Free Enterprise Forum does not understand the hesitancy to allow light to spill greater than ½ foot candle to the pedestrian right of way.  The Planning Commission will hear this ZTA on September 20th.
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Editorial

Property Rights Matter
By. Neil Williamson, Executive Director, Free Enterprise Forum
 

Property rights are the fundamental building blocks of Liberty. John Locke, who, arguing from Natural Law, claimed all men had a right to Life, Liberty, Health, and Property.   

Yesterday, the Free Enterprise Forum filed a friend of the court brief in the Collins v. Shoppers World Property Rights case.  The brief, responds to a suit brought by the American Civil Liberty Union of Virginia and The Rutherford Institute, seeks to reaffirm the private property rights of commercial real estate owners.

The initial suit concerns Richard C. Collins unsuccessful bid for the Democratic nomination for Virginia House of Delegates.  On May 7th, Collins was distributing campaign literature outside of the Whole Foods store in the Shopper’s World shopping center. After being asked by management several times to cease this activity, the Albemarle County Police Department was contacted. The police also attempted to mediate the situation and asked Collins to leave, he refused.  In the end, Collins was arrested for trespassing. 

The Amicus Curie brief fully supports the right to free speech but contends such a right does not supercede the right of a property owner to control his property.  “The issue in this case is not whether the candidate as the plaintiff has a right to speak out about his candidacy, or the candidacy of others…The issue in this case is not the right to speak, but the location at which he can engage in that speech” according to the brief.
Since the filing, I have heard from many Forum Watch readers on both sides of this issue.  The Free Enterprise Forum stands clearly on the side of property rights.  If we as a community allow the continued erosion of private property rights, we start down a slippery slope away from our ownership society.  Clearly, property owners do not surrender all of their property rights to the public merely because the property is open to the public.
 
The Free Enterprise Forum has taken a stand on this issue contrary to The ACLU, The Rutherford Institute and (as of yesterday) The Thomas Jefferson Center for the Protection of Free Expression.  We do not take this stand lightly.  We clearly believe this issue is much bigger than the one case that brought it forward. 
 
Someone had to stand up for property rights; we did.    
 
Yes, property rights matter.
 
Respectfully submitted,
 
Neil Williamson

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The Free Enterprise Forum  
550 Hillsdale Drive  
Charlottesville, VA 22901  
Phone: (434) 220-0781  
Fax: (434) 817-2836  
www.freeenterpriseforum.org  

Copyright Free Enterprise Forum 2005
This publication is a product of the Free Enterprise Forum.
For more information on the items addressed in this issue or on other topics related to local government in the
Central Virginia region, contact Neil Williamson at Neil@freeenterpriseforum.org or call 434-220-0781.  Those who read the small print are rarely surprised.
 

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From cvillenews -

If there’s one thing that every candidate for the Greene County Board of Supervisors can agree on, it’s the need to end growth. So reports Kate Andrews in today’s Progress:

This should prove an interesting story to follow. The region is facing growth issues – affordable housing, resource limitations, infrastructure weakness and inadequacies … Will the backlash begin in Greene? What impact can the County BOS have when private landowners continue to sell their land to developers?

Technorati Tags: greene, growth, real estate

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