Case Shiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville Real Estate Market

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Case Shiller doesn’t track the Charlottesville real estate market. Nor Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, Nelson, Waynesboro, Augusta … Case Schiller doesn’t track Charlottesville.

I wrote in early 2008 that The Charlottesville/Central Virginia/Shenandoah Valley markets are not covered by the Case-Shiller index. Real estate is local; while trends may be drawn from this type of research, and while the proverbial turned-corner may still be just over the horizon, it’s important to put his study in the appropriate context.

Crap. That “horizon” to which I referred is still a ways off. But … what I said remains true. Case Schiller doesn’t track our market.

But.

Elections 2011 – What’s on Your Ballot?

Vote!

“Politicians are like diapers; they need to be changed often and for the same reason.” ― Mark Twain

We vote on Tuesday in what’s termed an “off-off election” meaning … fewer people vote, so your vote will matter more. Please vote.

Here are a few resources:

- Charlottesville Tomorrow’s Albemarle County Board of Supervisors Candidate information

- Charlottesville Tomorrow’s Charlottesville City Council Candidate information

- Unfortunately, Charlottesville Tomorrow doesn’t cover the other important races, but luckily The HooK offers snapshots of the various races, including Albemarle County School Board (I’m endorsing Ned Gallaway for this race), Soil and Conservation District (I like Lonnie Murray)

- cvillenews gives a succinct rundown of which races are on the ballots. I’d clip a bit of Waldo’s post, but really, just read the whole thing.

Greene County Real Estate Market Update – August 30 2011

What does this mean? It means simply that the Greene County real estate market – and Greene County itself – is becoming more self-sufficient and independent of Charlottesville-Albemarle (CharlAlbemarle). People are choosing to buy and live in Greene County and don’t have to commute into the City of Charlottesville or Albemarle to work. I’d *love* to see updated commuting data from the US Census.

This is just a reasonably high-level overview of the Greene County real estate market. If you’re curious about what’s happening in your location in Greene, or are currently searching for homes for sale in Greene, please feel free to contact me anytime with questions.

Sold listing volume is down just a bit in Greene County year over year:

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Charlottesville MSA Real Estate Market Update – August 2011 – How This Matters to You

Pending Contracts in the Charlottesville MSA are UP, year over year. But if you’re looking to buy a home in the Charlottesville area or if you’re trying to or thinking about selling, this number doesn’t matter to you one bit. What matters is – what is the market doing on my street? In my neighborhood? In my elementary school district? What happens at the top level – national, state, MSA, locality – is darn near irrelevant other than from a psychological point of view.

Here is why the top numbers don’t matter … there are extremes and outliers everywhere; today’s example:

A house just went under contract in the Bentivar neighborhood. A first look says that the house came on the market at $595k and went under contract in 6 days. If that house sells for $595k, the MLS data will show that it sold for 100% of its asking price. Which isn’t accurate.

  • The house first came on the market in February 2010 for $1,100,000.
  • Reduced to $835,000
  • Came back on the market at $833,000
  • Reduced to $735,000
  • Came on the market for $595,000
  • Went under contract quickly.

Look beyond the numbers presented to you. Here and everywhere. Good real estate professionals don’t try to hide the information, but it takes work to discover what’s actually happening.


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Charlottesville MSA Median Prices 2000 through 2011

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Bear with me … I’m trying to make sense of the market.

Continuing my theme of looking at the Charlottesville real estate market data from a longer point of view, lest we track the housing market too closely

It seems that we’re back (broadly) at 2004 – 2005 housing prices in Charlottesville.

Single family home median prices for Charlottesville MSA:

Median Sales Prices - Single Famliy Homes - 1st 5 Months - Charlottesville MSA

Attached home median prices for Charlottesville MSA:

Attached - Median Sales Price

I left off Greene and Louisa as they have negligible attached home inventories.