Pending Contracts in the Charlottesville MSA are UP, year over year. But if you're looking to buy a home in the Charlottesville area or if you're trying to or thinking about selling, this number doesn't matter to you one bit. What matters is - what is the market doing on my street? In my neighborhood? In my elementary school district? What happens at the top level - national, state, MSA, locality - is darn near irrelevant other than from a psychological point of view.
Here is why the top numbers don't matter … there are extremes and outliers everywhere; today's example:
A house just went under contract in the Bentivar neighborhood. A first look says that the house came on the market at $595k and went under contract in 6 days. If that house sells for $595k, the MLS data will show that it sold for 100% of its asking price. Which isn't accurate.
- The house first came on the market in February 2010 for $1,100,000.
- Reduced to $835,000
- Came back on the market at $833,000
- Reduced to $735,000
- Came on the market for $595,000
- Went under contract quickly.
Look beyond the numbers presented to you. Here and everywhere. Good real estate professionals don't try to hide the information, but it takes work to discover what's actually happening.
Bear with me ... I'm trying to make sense of the market.
Continuing my theme of looking at the Charlottesville real estate market data from a longer point of view, lest we track the housing market too closely
It seems that we're back (broadly) at 2004 - 2005 housing prices in Charlottesville.
Single family home median prices for Charlottesville MSA:
Attached home median prices for Charlottesville MSA:
I left off Greene and Louisa as they have negligible attached home inventories.
When Greene County gets its 500+ townhomes, it will increase the number of attached housing in that county by many orders of magnitude. Townhomes in Northern Albemarle - Hollymead, Forest Lakes, Abington Place, Riverwood will be impacted by the entrance - and prospective entrance - of these homes to the real estate market.
For context, a quick look at the Charlottesville Area MLS shows that:
Over the past 21 years (in the MLS which is "accurate enough" for these purposes:
Harrisonburg City grew by an astounding 4.59%, but we outpaced Albemarle, Charlottesville, Louisa, Madison, Orange, Fluvanna, Rockingham, Staunton, and Nelson.
...I suppose that quite a bit of that growth can be attributed to NGIC/DIA as well as the fact that now that Greene has a Lowe's and Super Wal-Mart people are more inclined to stay in Greene rather than always have to go to Charlottesville. Also, I'd bet that that Hollymead Town Center - Harris Teeter and Target - derives a fair amount of their traffic from southern Greene County.
...If you want a small farm to keep a pony for the kids or a nice vegetable garden, going north may be the answer.
Courtesy of the C-Ville blog citing a newsletter from the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors - All those home builders banking on selling houses to new National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) employees may be in for a rude awakening.
... Posts of enduring interest for buyers This is where I point prospective buyers/renters - the rental market is far more fragmented with the "for sale" market - The HooK's classifieds C-Ville's classifieds Daily Progress Blue Ridge Apartment Council Craigslist Charlottesville MLS While I make my living representing buyers and seller clients, often it is in their best interest to rent for at least six months to get a feel of the area, a lay-of-the-land, if you will.
With ceilings placed higher than the storage space maximum, the basements become a new floor on the buildings that could be occupied for future offices, thus requiring Wood to build 200 additional parking spaces , or seek a waiver from that standard. ... Because we have heard storage is actually laboratory space as well, so we are trying to get a better handle on what the real use of this space is,” said Graham.
Posted in Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Growth, Politics
Tagged Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Growth, ngic, Politics, Rivanna Military Base
I'm not saying that we haven't hit the bottom, but that calling it as such with so many unknowns and new variables in the equation would be the wrong thing to do right now, despite Lawrence Yun's statement - " Without Forecasts, we don't look credible ." The Realtor update (1): 1st half 2005 : 115 had more than ten sides, 296 had more than five sides, 679 had at least one, with about five hundred or so not having a single transaction 1st half 2006 : 107 had more than ten sides, 285 had more than five sides, 740 had at least one, about four hundred fifty not having one. 1st half 2007 : 73 had more than ten sides, 232 had more than five, 687 had at least one, about four hundred with zero 1st half 2008 : 44 had more than ten sides, 169 had more than five, 619 had had least one, leaving about seven hundred with zero transactions so far this year. (out of 1201 sold residential properties) From the DP on Saturday : Many real estate agents may not manage to weather the moribund market before it solidly rebounds, Savage said.
Posted in Charlottesville, Greene, Market statistics
Tagged buyer's agent, charlalbemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Market, Market statistics, market update, real-estate, RealCentralVA, realtor