Today’s news really shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to the Charlottesville-Albemarle real estate market. The news affects everyone in this area – politicians counting on that revenue, homeowners in nearby Mill Creek, Lake Reynovia, Foxcroft, Redfields, Mosby Mountain, Sherwood Manor and other developments as well as any property owner who lived in or visited that part of Charlottesville, transportation plans,

One question – how will the Fifth Street/Avon Street development be impacted?

The stories today will certainly be augmented by the HooK and C-Ville in the coming days:

Huge planned Biscuit Run development in danger – Daily Progress

Biscuit Run – an expensive state park - Charlottesville Tomorrow

Biscuit Run, the largest development ever approved in Albemarle County, may instead become a state park. Forest Lodge LLC, fronted by local developer, builder and banker Hunter E. Craig, is in discussions with the state to donate the 1,200 acres it owns between Route 20 and Old Lynchburg Road. …

“The business climate is such that it’s not in the investors’ best interest to proceed with development at this stage,” attorney Steve Blaine said at the time.

Charlottesville Bubble Blog:

The Breeden Family made $46.2 Million selling the parcel in 2005 to Hunter Craig. This was at the peak of the bubble–the smartest real estate transaction ever completed in this area, and one which allowed other land and home sellers to maintain champagne dreams for years.

Also at risk for never being completed, however, is the Southwood Development, 350 homesites for Habitat for Humanity, which relied upon Biscuit Run’s infrastructure improvements and funding.

The good news:

This news removes uncertainty from the Charlottesville-Albemarle real estate market. With the Biscuit Run development included, Charlottesville-Albemarle had about fifteen to sixteen thousand residential units approved for development. Having a few thousand less is a good thing.

Update 10 December 2009:

The HooK’s story prompted an excellent discussion. As did cvillenews.

Update 11 December 2009:

The Free Enterprise Forum raises some interesting points.

A brief Biscuit Run history:

6,000 More homes? March 2006

Biscuit Run Price Tag: $222 Million – cvillenews – March 2007

Hollymead, Biscuit Run Approved – cvillenews- September 2007

Biscuit Run is on hold – January 2009

One of my favorite posts – Struggles with Growth in Charlottesville/Albemarle and Beyond – April 2007

If you really want to educate yourself about Biscuit Run, spend a few hours (or days) in Charlottesville Tomorrow’s archives – podcasts and stories.

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Charlottesville architect/developer Bill Atwood in Brandon Shulleeta’s story in today’s Daily Progress:

Atwood said that in the retail world, “the longer you can get people to stay, the better the pay. In other words, if you have somebody who’s actually going to stay and eat at dinner and actually walk around, you’ll be viable faster. … Having people live there is the ultimate.”

Atwood said that young residents are “more apt to want to be in town and places where you can socialize, buy a dog and buy a cup of coffee. … I think that the idea of joining a village is going to be as important the next 10 years as joining a country club in the last 10 years.”

This is one of the most astute, succinct and accurate statements I have heard about where the Charlottesville and Albemarle region’s growth is moving.

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David Slutzky, from Charlottesville Tomorrow’s story – Albemarle candidates discuss transportation, economic development, and water supply (bolding mine):

Slutzky said he is concerned that VDOT wants to turn U.S. 29 into an “expressway” in order to make it easier for through traffic to travel through Albemarle County. He said there might be a good case to be made for the Western Bypass, but raising “a quarter of a billion dollars” for the project would be difficult.

Charlottesville and Albemarle transportation, politics, growth policies, fiscal responsibility, property taxes … it’s all there when you look at the upcoming elections. Take a few minutes …

If you’re interested – *at all* in the Charlottesville real estate market -whether you’re a buyer, a homeowner, a renter – all of these issues affect you.

Download the Voter Guides at Charlottesville Tomorrow.

While you’re at it, why not donate a few bucks to Charlottesville Tomorrow? Where else are you going to find such rich, deep and unbiased information?

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Bumped back to the top because the conversation at RealCrozetVA is pretty good.

And now, rather than eighteen months after the fact, is the time to voice your opinion, rather than eighteen months or three years from now.

From Charlottesville Tomorrow:

With the adoption of the plan in December 2004, community leaders believed they had a twenty-year plan that would cap Crozet’s population at a maximum of 12,000. Crozet is estimated to have a population of 5,336 people today.

However, Crozet residents began to ask questions after the approval of the Old Trail Village development (up to 2,200 homes).  In response to their concerns, in January 2006, County staff announced their new assessment of the ultimate build out population of Crozet after reinterpreting the land use map adopted as part of the plan. They found the plan depicts population densities that, when fully built out, could allow a population range between 15,816 and 24,758 people.

Mike Marshall, the chair of the Crozet Community Advisory Council (CCAC), said he thought the master plan would guide the maximum population towards around 12,000. He said the population issue is the main concern of the advisory group.

“The town felt sort of like they’d been betrayed, that the plan hadn’t been followed,” Marshall told the Commission. He said the community wants the map to reflect expectations that the total build-out of Crozet will be 12,000, no matter the year.

County Planner Elaine Echols said the land use map will be updated during the review, and it will reflect developments that have been built since 2004.

There is a good discussion at RealCrozetVA right now about Crozet’s Streetscape plans that has evolved into a good discussion on growth in Crozet.

Commenter Edward Strauss says:

Why do you think that Crozet has done an admirable job of balancing growth? Crozet is not a town. There is no local Crozet govt.

Disclosure: I live in Crozet and one of my goals is to never have to get in my car to show property as I’d like to be able to ride my bike everywhere. I’m not quite there yet …

Crozet TEA 21 Drawing

Search for homes in Crozet by Walkscore:

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A very interesting conversation with Jack Marshall, president of Advocates for a Sustainable Population (ASAP). [no, not that ASAP]

Listen to the discussion at Charlottesville Podcasting Network.

One would think that with the money ASAP got from the Charlottesville and Albemarle governments they’d be able to get their website up and running.

While looking at Charlottesville Tomorrow for the above links, I saw that ASAP got the first funding from the City in August 2007 and the County in March 2008; we might reach the so-called sustainable population limits before they finish their studies.

Related stories:

What’s the population limit for Charlottesville and Albemarle? (8/2009)

Is this ASAP’s point of view? (5/2007)

Another take on growth in Central Virginia (12/2005)

Charlottesville-Albemarle Conflict Continues (2/2007) – Good comments on this post.

/snark.

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Pantops wants sidewalks. But apparently Albemarle doesn’t have money for much of anything right now. What are the solutions? Gas tax? Local tax district with guaranteed dedicated funding to infrastructure? We know that if we don’t specify up front how taxpayers’ money will be used, it will be frittered away elsewhere … would you be willing to pay a gas tax or sales tax that was specified for infrastructure projects in Charlottesville and Albemarle?

Supervisor David Slutzky (Rio) raised the question of how to pay for such improvements in the Pantops area, such as crosswalks and bike lanes on Route 250.

“The only way we have to really pay for additional infrastructure is to raise taxes. If the community is not interested in that, and I haven’t heard anybody telling me that they want their taxes raised in Pantops, then I want to make sure they understand that this is just a wish list,” said Slutzky.

Slutzky told the advisory council that it would be helpful to the board if PCAC discussed potential methods to pay for the requested improvements.

“We’re in a mode where people say we’d like the infrastructure, end of sentence,” said Slutzky. He added that funding should also play an important part in planning discussions, which it often fails to do.

Supervisor Ken Boyd (Rivanna) clarified that PCAC was not creating wish lists for the county to finance, but was simply asking for fair treatment relative to other communities such as Crozet and Places29.

I think Mr. Slutzky’s answer is a cop-out, and this is where I differ from many of my Realtor bretheren: If we’re going to approve so much development, why aren’t infrastructure improvements decided or coordinated with said developments? When I tell my clients, in response to their queries about what CharlAlbemarle is going to do about traffic and infrastructure, I am half kidding when I say, “nobody knows; we’ll just have to figure that out later.”

For an example of one person’s experience trying to navigate Charlottesville on foot, read this letter to the editor in the Daily Progress.

FYI – Crozet’s infrastructure plans have seen delays as well. The above conversation is an example of my personal struggle with growth in Charlottesville and Albemarle:

I am faced anew with the struggle our region faces, and how to cope with the challenges of being a Realtor who makes my living marketing and selling houses – across the gamut of price ranges … and the challenge of balancing that clear self-interest with the charge we all have of ensuring a high quality of life for ourselves and those who follow. As a Realtor, I recognize that people move to the Charlottesville area not necessarily because their jobs are moving, but because we are a destination with a reputed high quality of life. How do we maintain that quality of life?

What do we want this area to look like for our children? Their children?

Related Reading:

Albemarle residents criticize proposal to raise tax rates

Supervisors updated on financial plan and tax rate assumptions

From the Daily Progress in January 2009:

A new report shows a massive hike in government spending in Albemarle County in the past two decades, with inflation-adjusted expenditures increasing 121 percent between 1990 and 2007.

Officials say that’s largely because the county has become more urbanized, has to foot the bill for state and federal mandates and is giving a huge chunk of its money to Charlottesville.

The county spent an average of $2,673 per resident in 2007. Per capita spending was $1,660 in 1990 — after adjusting for inflation — according to the report, which charted operational expenditures.

“One could argue that the manner in which they’re choosing to develop has an impact on their spending patterns,” said Neil Williamson, president of the Free Enterprise Forum, which created the report along with Decker Economics in Kinderhook, N.Y.

Though expenditures went up by more than 120 percent between 1990 and 2007, the population and school enrollment increased 37 percent and 26 percent, respectively, during the same period.

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And a local land baron to boot. Very interesting conversation at Cvillenews centered around the Daily Progress’ excellent piece on the possibility of a(nother) Wal-Mart on 29 North.

As with most anything in this world, it seems that money talks. And Places 29 needs a whole lotta work.

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“A once in a generation opportunity.”

The Martha Jefferson neighborhood finally has an idea as to how it will be redeveloped. That they have selected so many local firms qualifies as a significant “good thing” for the Charlottesville community.

Let’s hope that their “120-day negotiation period” is fruitful and successful.

I’m thinking that this will be a tremendous boon to the Charlottesville community – particularly if they are able to install a grocery store (Trader Joe’s anyone)?

C-Ville said in 2007:

Part of the trick is finding a compatible development partner. “A lot of it comes back to character—people who will understand our unique community,” Bowers says. “Obviously it would be fantastic if local groups came up and got in the mix when we’re ready to consider proposals, but I think we’ll also get some attention from outside the city as well. Charlottesville’s on the map, it’s kind of undeniable at this point.”

And it looks like Martha Jefferson have found the partners they have been looking for:

Crosland LLC has won exclusive negotiating rights to lead the redevelopment of Martha Jefferson Hospital’s 14 acres of property in downtown Charlottesville, which includes the current hospital campus.

A nationwide search drew interest from 25 groups and formal responses from 11 development teams, followed by a head-to-head competition involving four finalists. Crosland was then selected by the hospital board as its partner of choice to preserve the hospital’s legacy and create a significant master-planned development.

“This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for downtown Charlottesville,” said hospital spokesman Steve Bowers. “We’ve taken a very patient approach to finding the right partner who understood our vision, as well as the desires of the city and the surrounding neighborhood. Crosland listened to the needs of all those groups and has previewed concepts that are innovative yet sensitive to the historic environment.”

The team led by Crosland includes the firm’s long-time development partner, Celebration Associates, and Insite Properties as the core development group. Key consultants include Urban Design Associates, with offices in Pittsburgh and Charlottesville, and Cooper, Robertson & Partners of New York (urban planning and architecture); Charlottesville-based Nelson Byrd Woltz (landscape architecture); Patton Harris Rust & Associates of Chantilly, Va. (engineering) and Staunton, Va.-based Frazier Associates (historic preservation).

What do you think? With the economy where it is, this may be the perfect time to move forward with this plan. Slow, steady, methodical … and hopefully perfect.

Image Courtesy of Jack Lookey and C-Ville.

* Naturally, I read about this first on Twitter.

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More at RealCrozetVA -

Request for preliminary site plan approval to construct a 7,000 square foot, two (2) story commercial building with eight (8) gas pumps and associated parking 4.06 acres.

PDF map of the site here (courtesy of Albemarle County’s awesome GIS site)

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That seems to be the case in today’s news concerning one component of the NGIC/Military Base expansion underway. Reports Charlottesville Tomorrow … (bolding mine)

Two weeks ago, Wood asked the County to allow him to change the layout of two four-story office buildings in the Boulders Office Complex. What was to be basement storage with low ceilings Wood would like to be basement space with ceilings closer to height of a typical office floor. Storage space, however, is required to have ceilings no taller than 6 feet 6 inches. County staff told Charlottesville Tomorrow that it appears the basement of one building under construction has already been readied with bathrooms and HVAC in anticipation of future use. With ceilings placed higher than the storage space maximum, the basements become a new floor on the buildings that could be occupied for future offices, thus requiring Wood to build 200 additional parking spaces, or seek a waiver from that standard. Wood has requested a reduction in the parking requirements, presumably because the taller space will still be used for storage needs of his tenant and not for employees needing parking.

…

Wood’s commercial office complex is developing independent of the nearby military base expansion projects. Ground was recently broken on a $58.5 million Joint Use Intelligence Analysis Facility (JUIAF) located on about 47 acres of land the federal government purchased from Wood. JUIAF will join the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) as part of the growing military base. Wood’s commercial project has been described by the military as something that would support the work at the base by, for example, providing space for private military contractors.

…

Mark Graham joined the meeting in the afternoon and provided the Board with additional information about Wood’s request and the review process. “Everything we have [heard about the use] is anecdotal right now, quite frankly….Because we have heard storage is actually laboratory space as well, so we are trying to get a better handle on what the real use of this space is,” said Graham.

You can’t say no, I’ve already built it! It would be helpful for everybody involved to know how many jobs will be coming here from Fort Belvoir (among other places) as part of the BRAC. (I’m still a little bit stunned that the Charlottesville area now has an official “Military Base” – Rivanna Station – I wonder if they’ll be getting a PX).

More people should mean more parking spaces, regardless of this fact:

… 1,000 people would be coming, only 625 new parking spaces were being built. Moffatt has to meet the federal government’s goal in new construction of only providing parking for 60% of the employees. Slutzky said he was glad to hear about that requirement. “It forces all of us to have to address it and that’s how we get transit results.”

Chicken, meet egg.

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This story from Bacon’s Rebellion – The Transportation Debate and the Unreported Land Use Revolution, is screaming to be localized and told about how Charlottesville/Albemarle will be affected.

The land use provisions of (HB 3202) seem to be holding up better than the road-funding pieces, even if their impact has yet to be fully felt. The legislation called for the creation of Urban Development Areas that would steer growth in fast-growth counties into districts where jurisdictions were prepared to concentrate their investments in roads and infrastructure — and allowed localities to assess impact fees to help pay for it.

…

Got that? An alternative financing mechanism to pay for building secondary roads already exists. One of the reasons that General Assembly Republicans are adverse to new taxes is that HB 3202 significantly has already increased the ability of local governments to raise funds through impact fees. The refusal to pile on new taxes before the impact of last year’s legislation is understood does not make the Republicans anti-tax Neanderthals.

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Higher gas prices.

From NPR (thanks to C-Ville), featuring a friend and fellow blogger, Danilo Bogdanovic:

Stiff says home buyers’ attitudes have changed. The old rule was, “Drive ’til you qualify” — meaning they should go out from the city until they could get what they wanted at a price they could afford.

Stiff says buyers are now asking different questions: “What is the cost of gasoline? What is the cost of my time?”

Recent studies suggest that buyers underestimated the costs of their long commutes. Those expenses can add up to more than the buyers saved on the home. Developers also miscalculated, lured by cheap land and rising home prices. They overreached, “partly because the bubble collapsed, but partly because these developments were just bad ideas to begin with,” Stiff said.

Many of the projects were simply too far away from places that people need to go.

As I said on Inman’s blog yesterday:

I firmly believe, to my core, that this (higher gas prices) is going to drive human settlement and development patterns toward properties that are close to “stuff that is within walking distance.” Buyers who buy today and are within a mile of grocery/coffee/gym – even if in the suburbs – will be grateful and thankful for their decision in three to four years. I filled up on Tuesday it was painful – $61 for a fill-up.

And I drove 120 miles today showing property. My tips – work from home at least once a week, combine errands, walk or ride my bike wherever I can, and encourage walkable decisions by my clients and political representatives.

More discussion at Bacon’s Rebellion

The Charlottesville/Albemarle region is becoming more and more segmented, as evidenced by the growth of Town Centers.

————–Map of Charlottesville areas, and a corresponding explanation of these sub-areas:

View Larger Map

————–Map of CharlAlbemarle Town Centers, and an explanation of these sub-regions.

View Larger Map

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Politics, as distasteful and unsavory as they may seem sometimes, matter in our lives. (Darn it)

Virginia is lucky and privileged to have access to some fantastic resources for investigating local and state-wide politics and politicians.

Yesterday, the Virginia Public Access Project just got even better. Just look at what you can find out about Albemarle politics (read: money).

Combine VPAP’s work with Richmond Sunlight for insight into the Virginia General Assembly and Charlottesville Tomorrow for growth and politics information focused on Charlottesville and Albemarle and you have much of what you need to be an informed, involved and responsible citizen.

Why learn about politics? Because the decisions they make often directly impact housing values and our quality of life.

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Witness the new approvals from the Albemarle Board of Supervisors; pay attention to the “interconnection conundrum.” If you live on a cul-de-sac, it may not always be one – one day it will likely be a through-road.

New residential developments must comply with the County’s standards for, among other things, sidewalks and street trees.  Allowing cars from these new “walkable” neighborhoods to connect through the pedestrian unfriendly streets in existing neighborhoods has been a point of concern of County residents from Crozet, to Biscuit Run, to Glenmore.

Supervisors that find these conflicts in their district often side with the existing constituents and oppose interconnection or only allow it for emergency vehicles.  Other Supervisors point out that it is an important principle of the County’s Neighborhood Model.  Even the General Assembly is starting to suggest they will be less likely to pay for maintenance of roads in cul-de-sac developments and will instead create funding incentives for interconnected neighborhoods that better mitigate traffic congestion.

Related posts:

BOS still hasn’t met a subdivision it didn’t like (RealCrozetVA)
This is why I tell my clients that everything can change

Technorati Tags: albemarle, charlalbemarle, growth, growth area, politics

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The title quote from Hugh Underwood in today’s Daily Progress accurately sums up the approval of the Avon Center.

The segmentation of our region continues …

One of the greatest negatives about living on the east side (Mill Creek, Lake Reynovia, Marshall Manor, etc.) or south side of Charlottesville is the lack of shopping; now that problem will be no more.

The Fifth Street-Avon Center development will bring a grocery, home improvement store and large discount retailer, along with a promenade of smaller shops and restaurants. It will be located just south of Charlottesville between Fifth Street and Avon Street Extended.

View Larger Map

Even better –

The entire project will be LEED certified, a nationally recognized standard of green building, said the project’s lawyer, Steven Blaine. Greenways would connect to the Rivanna Trail system, and rain would be harvested off roofs, all aspects supervisors praised Wednesday.

And a theater too!

More at WINA.

Generally, I think this type of development, if it is effectively integrated into the surrounding community, will cause real estate values to increase, and it likely will raise the intrinsic value of living nearby (not next to – nearby).
In fifteen years, will residents of this part of Charlottesville even know about the 29 North Corridor? Will they have any reason whatsoever to go there?

Update 03/13/2008: In typical fashion, Charlottesville Tomorrow has an extensive report.

Update 03/14/2008: Good discussion at cvillenews.

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For helping to bring the annexation debate to the forefront.

Bribing the City of Charlottesville clearly made sense when the agreement was made; it’s time to revisit the debate.

The agreement ended Charlottesville’s annexation of County land and was approved by County voters in a referendum on May 18, 1982.  Soon after it went into effect, the General Assembly placed a moratorium on further annexations in Virginia. Charlottesville will receive $13.6 million in revenue sharing funds from the County in FY2009.
…
Slutzky encouraged his fellow Supervisors to stop discussing the legalities until a closed session could be held,  but made the observation that revenue sharing means the County has an effective tax rate (this year) of 58 cents per $100 of assessed property. According to the formula that calculates the payment, ten cents per $100 goes to the County.

An agreement made a generation ago surely warrants revisiting once in a while, if only to reaffirm its efficacy.

We share many things now – merging would hopefully simplify the political process and remove some of the divisiveness that currently exists. I’ve long thought that the two localities should merge … why not?

For some background -

The Daily Progress, the DP again, Cville Tomorrow and Jennifer’s blog.

Technorati Tags: albemarle, charlalbemarle, charlottesville, growth area, politics

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Interesting.

Graphic and story found at Seeking Alpha, who found it at Cafe Hayek, who refers to the actual original story.

Charlottesville’s Free Enterprise Forum released a comprehensive study last year enumerating some of the local impacts of government regulation on housing costs (PDF). This is a good conversation from last year about growth and housing in Charlottesville/Albemarle and beyond.

Technorati Tags: charlalbemarle

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