Housing numbers are down
And inventory is up.
Rates are low.
Home price appreciation is slowing.
Inventory is up. Significantly.
note: as soon as I figure out how to upload an image via coding, rather than depending on my normal program, I will.
Regarding NAR’s press release: They have an obligation to present the facts, and their best opinions. Everybody has opinions and interpretation of data. Assumptions and conclusions may (and usually do) differ.
Take this for example:
Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dipped 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.18 million units in September from a level of 6.30 million in August, and were 14.2 percent below the 7.20 million-unit pace in September 2005, which was the third strongest month on record.
“The good news is that fewer new listings are coming online. A stable sales pace is expected to draw down the number of listings to a supply balance that will support positive price growth within a few months. Taking the long view is always the best way to approach housing decisions, and right now, buyers are in a very favorable market.”
With the Calculated Risk’s “alternate” take on the report:
Sales plummeted 16.3% from September 2005. This is a record YoY (Year over Year) Sales decline.
Median Prices dropped 2.2% from September 2005. Bloomberg: “… the biggest year- over-year decline since record-keeping began in 1969.”
Locally in the Charlottesville region (inclusive of Charlottesville/Albemarle/Fluvanna/Greene/Louisa/Nelson), the market has slowed. Using a quick YoY analysis, in September of 2005, 333 residential properties closed. In September 2006, 211 closed - quite a drop year over year.
Listings under contract - September 2005 - 305 listings went under contract. In September 2006 - 214. Sit down. Take a breath. It will be ok.
And here you have the Virginia roundup from The Housing Bubble Blog, while Dewita’s calling NoVa a Buyers’ Market. A different one, but a Buyers’ Market all the same.
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Connected communities
As our region continues to grow, each area has its own perspective on how to handle growth -
Why the focus on so many counties? Simple - they are all connected. The land-use decisions in Louisa will impact the real estate market in CharlAlbemarle - if more people are able to comfortably buy, live and work in Louisa, perhaps fewer people will move to CharlAlbemarle. As broadband becomes more prevalent in Nelson, that rural county will be more of a viable option. But where will the people work? Will they telecommute to Colorado? Will they commute to Charlottesville? Waynesboro? What will be the impact on infrastructure?
If one of these counties becomes more or less business friendly, the connected communities will be impacted; how I am not sure yet; but make no mistake - they will be impacted. Whether these counties like it or not, they are affected by external decisions.
Fluvanna County learns about the value of Greenways from a local visionary -
One way to think about a Greenways project, Mahon said, is to think four or five generations ahead. If you look beyond your personal self-interest, you can see that it will be a contribution to the future.
Resident, after resident, after resident lined up to speak in strong disapproval to the proposed Annandale development. The 244 acre site would sit just outside of Gordonsville and house nearly 500 single family homes for people ages 55 and up. Some residents felt this many homes could destroy the small town feel.
In addressing Nellysford, Rue said there could be three routes taken to complete the plan. They include long-term transportation and business growth, a focus of safety issues on Virginia 151 or a plan that looks at safety as well as business growth.
Louisa County: questions are raised regarding the mixed-use implementation as they revise their Comprehensive Plan -
The suggested changes would define “very low density residential development” as one dwelling unit per acre and “low density residential development” as up to two dwelling units per acre. High density residential development would be defined as more than six units per acre. “These really sound more like urban densities,” said Jim Scharf, Green Springs district commissioner. … (and one person remarked) “If [one house per acre] is very low density,” she said, “I don’t know what life is going to be like around here.”
What if a rural county wants to maintain its rural character?
And one of my favorites comes from Trish, who laments the changing landscape of the CharlAlbemarle area -
Why do we have to completely strip the land to build anything? … I could go on an on but I’ll just end by saying that Central VA really needs to wake up and be as environmentally responsible as they “claim” to be.
Technorati Tags: albemarle, charlalbemarle, charlottesville, fluvanna, growth
Local housing market review
The DP has two interesting articles
David Hendrick provides a good analysis of the local market and its prospects for the upcoming year. Charlottesville is unique, for a variety of reasons. One of which is -
“Charlottesville is a destination area,” said Casey Dawkins, director of the Virginia Center for Housing Research. “It seems to be the case that there is still potential for growth.”
…
“Virginia is one of a few states where you see dramatic regional difference,” Dawkins said. “Charlottesville will probably continue to grow, as will Richmond. For the rest of the state I would anticipate smaller increases.”
On the flip side, if people cannot afford to live in Louisa, traditionally one of the more affordable counties, where can they afford?
Technorati Tags: affordable housing, Central Virginia, growth
Population increases (shocking!)
The Weldon Cooper Center has released a study showing population increases throughout the Commonwealth. The Thomas Jefferson Planning District (our region) has seen a fairly significant increase in its population - 7.5%.
Albemarle has seen a provisional change of 7.4%.
Charlottesville - (-.5%)
Greene - 11.2%
Fluvanna - 24.4%
Louisa - 12.1%
Nelson - 4.2%
The above numbers are the total percentages, combining the natural increases and the change due to migration. Settlement patterns continue to fascinate me. Even if we don’t build the roads, apparently people continue to come here. Where, however, is the Tipping Point?
Supply and demand (and interest rates) has thus far kept housing prices increasing. With growth such as this, I think that we are on track to maintain a moderate increase in prices, so long as government stays out of the free market.
Thanks to Bacons’ Rebellion for the heads-up.
Technorati Tags: growth
Growth, politics and the market (morning reading)
Tom McCrystal has a nice post.
Conserve energy.
The NYTimes causes a stir this morning with a report on the housing market. Why does their story get so much buzz and press?
Greene faces its future with their Board of Supervisors elections.
Greene also moved closer to approving their first CIP.
Development issues in Louisa and Fluvanna. This is a novel concept -
Harrison Rue, Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission (TJPDC), acted as facilitator for the Monday, Sept. 12 meeting. He urged the group to make a conscious effort to link land use to transportation, find ways to support development that brings in jobs, create community gathering places, and attempt to answer the question, “What makes a place a place?” (Bolding mine)
Everything in this region always comes down to money, politics and growth.
Louisa reduces tax rate
DailyProgress.com | Louisa OKs county budget:
The supervisors also voted 4-3 to lower the tax rate from 70 to 66 cents per $100 of assessed value. But assessments averaging 35 percent higher than they were in 2003 create a net tax increase of 6 cents, (bolding mine) according to officials. …“I think we went back to doing things for people,” Chairman Fitzgerald Barnes said of next fiscal year’s budget.
If nothing else, this is a step in the right direction.
Read more
Water shortage in Louisa
DailyProgress.com | Louisa officials looking to solve water shortage:
Although Fluvanna and Louisa counties have agreed to the basic outline of an $18 million project to pipe water from the James River to Zion Crossroads, it is still in the early permit process and Louisa leaders are meanwhile eyeing other ways to hydrate the area.
The potential for dramatic water shortages is not localized to the Charlottesville/Albemarle area - it extends at least to the entire Central Virginia region, as evidenced by this story. Interestingly, one of the issues that Louisa/Fluvanna are considering is the James River pipeline.
One of the focal points of this particular story is the Spring Creek development that is currently under development near the 64 Interchange in Louisa. This is a massive development that is the first foray into our market by Ryan Homes. Adding >1000 large homes will certainly have an impact on water resources!
Technorati Tags: charlottesville, real estate
Higher density growth in Louisa
parcels can now build more homes by right on them as a result of a resolution
passed by the Louisa County Board of Supervisors following a public hearing on
Wednesday, Mar. 23.
Landowners who
own property that was zoned A-2 on or before Dec. 18, 1997 can now divide their
tract into a maximum of 18 1.5-acre lots without having to seek special
permission. However, any land that was zoned A-2 after that date must continue
to adhere to the county?s parent parcel
regulations.
…Louisa does not yet
have the problems that Albemarle/Cville have shown, but it certainly does have
promise.
Ethan Call, a real estate
broker and developer who lives in the Mountain Road district, told board members
that the construction industry is Louisa County?s largest employer, based
on information he obtained from a
U.
…Addressing affordable housing,
Gentry said that other localities are dealing with the same
issues.
…All in all, the Central
Virginian has a very informative article on this issue.
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