Just a brief update on where we are in the Charlottesville real estate market -

What does the housing inventory volume look like in Charlottesville, Earlysville and Crozet? Here is a quarter-by-quarter comparison, this quarter versus last:

PDFs:

Charlottesville Area Real Estate Data – Regional Market Update – Condos and Attached

Charlottesville Area Real Estate Data – Regional Market Update – Condos and Attached Charlottesville Area Real Estate Data – Regional Market Update – Single Family Homes – As of 15 March 2010

Here’s an interesting chart – percent of homes for sale in Charlottesville, Earlysville and Crozet that have been re-listed, as in, put back on the market so as to have the days on market reset.

Get your own charts –

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Looking at the weekly real estate data reports for Charlottesville and Albemarle, two points jump out:

- Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 26 %
- Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 9 %

I’m not 100% confident with 26% having price decreases, but it feels about right. The relisted number feels right too – this is the percent of homes that have come on the market for a second or third time …

Dig in. What do you find?

Download them all for yourself below or sign up to receive weekly automatic (spam-free) delivery.

Charlottesville Single-Family Homes

Charlottesville Attached Homes and Condos

Charlottesville and Albemarle Single Family Market Update

Charlottesville and Albemarle Attached Homes and Condos – real estate market update

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A brief update on the Charlottesville, Albemarle and Charlottesville MSA real estate markets … for single family homes.

For much more real estate data and charts, click through to sign up for spam-free updates. As always, please let me know what questions, comments, insight you may have, either in the comments or via email – jim AT RealCentralVA DOT com.

(everything prior to November 2009 is clearly inaccurate; the data needs seasoning)

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Edit: Bumped to the top because I really don’t want anyone to miss this analysis.

This is going to be a developing post as I read through Barry Merchant’s presentation from this morning.

Barry Merchant’s VHDA presentation at Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors (PDF)

Here is a podcast of Mr. Merchant’s presentation.

Additionally,

Here is an advance copy of the Nest Report, what we believe to be the best, most “comprehensive and transparent analysis of the residential real estate market in Charlottesville, Albemarle and surrounding counties, prepared quarterly by Nest Realty Group.”

Nest Report – Year End 2009, Predictions for 2010 (PDF)

I’ll jump to the conclusion of the Nest Report for you:

2010 will be about the national market and not just local stories. Unemployment will drive foreclosures and excess supply. Interest rates will control limiting demand. If unemployment and interest rates converge, price drops are not just possible, they are guaranteed. If, however, unemployment can stay stable and interest rates are affected, but only modestly, we could see a continuation of the recovery that we saw in the 3rd and 4th quarter. The weather in January and early February is certainly going to decrease the number of closings, as there have been few days in which buyers have been able to shop without weather being a factor.

All in all, we believe that compared to the rest of the US, the Charlottesville market has fared relatively well. However, prices are down and will continue to fall. Sellers that are attempting to chase the falling market with small listing price adjustments are unlikely to find buyers at prices they are hoping for. For sellers, pricing the home competitively may not be enough. Sellers may need to move to prices that drive multiple offers in order to close in on one.

For buyers, interest rates are going to rise. Now is a good time for those with long time horizons. While prices will continue to fall, the ownership costs may not. Buyers need to consider monthly mortgage payments along with principal reduction though payments as part of their equation. Buyers may find that even if prices fall 7-9% more, that buying today could make better financial sense in the long run.

If you would like a printed copy, please email or call me and I will be happy to put one in the mail. Or, stop by Nest Realty Group – we’re just off the Downtown Mall in the “Warehouse District.”

Comments, feedback and input welcomed.

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Left as a message via the message box on the right last night:

I’m looking for a house, but can’t find what I’m looking for east of town in the right price range. When do you think the “season” will begin and we will see more of a variety of listings on the market?

Generally the market starts to see more listing activity in the February/March timeframe. These are just the new listings in Charlottesville and Albemarle over the past four years. What this doesn’t show is what percentage of these listings sold or what their prices were … that’s a story for another day.

If you’re interested in more detailed market reports about the Charlottesville regional real estate market, you may be interested in these reports:

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I’m still in New York for the Inman Connect conference, but wanted to post the Charlottesville Area Association’s year-end real estate market report. More analysis to come, as well as the forthcoming Nest Report.

Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors Market Report 2009

Delve in, ask questions, point out errors and ask for clarification. I’m looking forward to reviewing this when I get back to Charlottesville.

Update 14 January 2010:

A quick point regarding this paragraph in the market report:

For now, we will continue to watch the inventory of homes for sale and the number of foreclosures that happen in our local market. If we see inventory levels continue to decline and the pace of foreclosures stays steady, we can expect prices to start creeping up. If inventory climbs again and the overall economy and home financing see further troubles, 2010 may end up being a repeat of 2009.

Looking at the RealtyTrac trends for the Charlottesville area:

Personally, and I will expand on this later, I think foreclosure and short sale trends are picking up.

More to come.

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Our MLS, Solid Earth, has just released some new statistical reports. They’re pretty darn great. Unfortunately, they are for the entire MLS – not just Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Lousia and Nelson.

As far as I can tell – this is the Moving Median Price for the past five years for the entire MLS … which incorporates way more than just the Charlottesville MSA.

And this is the the Moving Average for the past five years:

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I started setting “beginning of the year” baselines last year -

This is a post to provide a baseline going forward rather than a comprehensive analysis. We all know where the Charlottesville regional real estate market stands; predicting tomorrow, next week, next quarter is a job unto itself.

For further context, reference my market report from June 2009.

Not much has changed since I wrote in August of 2009 that regarding the Charlottesville real estate market, We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know. Now we know what we don’t know.

We don’t know:

• The level of shadow inventory in the Charlottesville market.
• The number of foreclosures Charlottesville (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson) are going to see this year.
• What interest rates are going to do.
• What unemployment/employment is going to do.
• What new construction in Charlottesville is going to do in 2010.
• (how many building permits, how many builders, what Ryan Homes are going to do – read: continue their dominance)
• What the hell the government is going to do with their incessant manipulations of markets through home buyer tax credits, foreclosure moratoriums, cramdowns of loans …
• How many – what percentage – Charlottesville homes are under water – one in four American borrowers are under water- and what these sellers choose to do. Will they go the short sale route? Foreclosure?
• How prevalent – if at all – strategic defaults may be.
• What will be done about negative equity?
• How many investors come into the market.
• What will happen after the homebuyer tax credit (probably) expires on 1 May 2010?

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in Charlottesville this year: Be smart, patient, qualified and informed.

Prepping to Buy a House in Charlottesville video

A work-in-progress page - Moving to Charlottesville

Prepping to Sell a House in Charlottesville Video

So … entering 2010 (read: “twenty-ten”) … for context as we move through the year …

Right now in Central Virginia:*

There are:

Active – 2355 - about 7% more than last year.

Under Contract: 347 - about 13% fewer than last year.

In Charlottesville:

Active – 285

Under Contract: 38

In Albemarle:

Active – 817

Under Contract: 139

For an example of why national and other regions’ real estate analyses and forecasts just aren’t relevant when you’re trying to get a handle on the Charlottesville real estate market, take a look at this analysis from Ventura County, California:

Some of the home buyers in Ventura County have lost the excitement of home shopping. The low inventory of homes in every city of our county has caused a bidding war on many properties. Homes that are priced well receive multiple offers within the first couple of days of being on the market. In my recent experience, many of these homes sell 3-5% over the asking price. Cash buyers, and home buyers with 10-20% downpayment, have a strong advantage of being much more likely to have have their offers accepted. This leaves FHA home buyers probing and watching the housing market more vigorously,

An inventory shortage! Multiple offers being common! Put simply – that ain’t us.

* Right now is 6 January 2009 at about 10:30am

* Central Virginia is Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson

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Part of a series derived from the Wake-up Call on WNRN on 27 December.

The more I analyze the Charlottesville regional real estate market, the more I am concluding that 2004-2008 are nearly irrelevant to the 2010 real estate market. Everything is different today.

Just for residential real estate in the City of Charlottesville and the County of Albemarle -

Update 30 December 2009: I’m thinking there should be a ? after “Statistical Anomaly” above. I can’t explain it, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s an “anomaly.”

Predictions and Prognostications:

The “bottom” of the Charlottesville real estate housing market may come in the third or fourth quarter of 2010. I may be wrong, and reserve the right to alter this prediction until I have the benefit of hindsight. We’re not going to know when the bottom is or was until we are able to have historical relevance.

If you’re buying a home and your not an investor, focus on buying a home. A place to live, to love, to come home to, to enjoy.

2010 is going to bring more foreclosures and short sales in the Charlottesville market. How many? I have no idea, and if I told you, I’d be lying.

2010 is likely to bring more moderated prices, with increased transactional volume.

2010 will see higher interest rates, that will still be remarkably low.

(Full, deep analysis of 2009 Charlottesville area real estate market coming in the second week of January. Please let me know if you would like to see any specific information or data)

More on Home Sales – Charlottesville/Albemarle

2006

2007

2008

2009

More on Home Sales – nationally

New-Home Sales Drop 11.3% As Impact of Stimulus Fades

Home Sales up as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit – National Association of Realtors (read with the biased grain of salt)

Why U.S. Home Sales Are Both Up and Down – excellent article from the Wall Street Journal.

We can’t blame you for being confused about housing. Tuesday, the market cheered a surge in existing-home sales. Then comes today’s news that new-home sales slid 11.3% in November, falling to the lowest level since April.
Up, down. Up, down. What gives?

Though the two reports both concern home sales in November, they aren’t really in synch and so aren’t comparable. The National Association of Realtors records existing-home sale data when the home closes, while the government records new-home deals when contracts are inked.

For home resales, there is typically a lag of a month to six weeks between the signing of contracts and the closing. So most of the November sales reported by the Realtors are based on decisions buyers made in September or October. At that point, lots of people were scrambling to buy homes in time to qualify for a tax credit that was due to expire Nov. 30. (It was later extended through April 2010.)

For the new-home sales, the decisions were made in November, when there was no such scramble to qualify for the tax credit.

—

Part 1- Quick Update on the Charlottesville Real Estate Market
Part 2 – Short sales and Foreclosures in Charlottesville
Part 3 – Homebuyer tax credit in 2010 – Who’s Eligible?
Part 4 – Strategic Defaults in Charlottesville – What will 2010 look like?

Podcast of the full hour show and transcript.

Update 30 December 2009: Responding to a comment on the Bubble Blog – My reasoning for marking that as a statistical anomaly (and maybe should have had a ? after it) was due to the spike from 18 to 25 months of inventory from October to November 2009. And then 19 to 32 months … I just can’t explain the spikes, and that is my reason for questioning them. (Further, I don’t trust the MLS data 100% – probably closer to 75% due to user error and manipulations with new construction and such.)
You don’t have to agree with me, or even like me, but I’m not hiding anything and welcome discussion and conversation – it’s how I (and we) learn.

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Continuing my mostly-regularly scheduled Friday Chart series where we look at a snippet of data of the Charlottesville real estate market …

This week we’re looking at price changes in the Charlottesville MSA* – not necessarily price reductions, but price changes. There is no way to search solely by price reductions in the Charlottesville MLS.

For the properties coming on the market, anecdotally I’m noticing that more are priced to the market, rather than priced to what the seller needs or wants. We’re not “there” yet, but maybe we’re on our way.

For 2009 versus 2008, for the previous seven days – there were 62 price changes versus 23 changes.

Looking at a wider timeline, this time 1 November through 4 December 2009 and 5 December 2008:

For 2009 versus 2008, for the previous seven days – there were 262 price changes this year versus 157 during the same time period last year.

* Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson

* For consistency’s sake, I included all statuses – active, contingent, pending, withdrawn, expired and sold.

* PDFs of the price changes for 2009, and a few more charts, are after the jump.

All Friday Charts here.

PDFs:

Price changes – Charlottesville MSA – 2009

Price changes – Charlottesville MSA – 2008

The data below is still not as accurate as it will be, as the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate markets do not have (and didn’t in the “boom” years) sufficient transactional volume to make all of these charts as trend-able as they are in other markets. For example, one or two big listings can skew all of the data … But please let me know what you think. I welcome and frequently incorporate your feedback.

* “Condo” in this context = attached + condo

If you’re interested in receiving these reports every month, please sign up below. Honestly, I think these charts are useful and cool; while they are still a work-in-progress as the data is still being analyzed, I think the trend lines are becoming more accurate.

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With the release of the Virginia Association of Realtors’ Third Quarter Homes Sales Report, I thought it would be interesting to see how Charlottesville’s and Albemarle’s home sale data looked over the years.

For total homes sold in Charlottesville and Albemarle:

Single Family Homes Sold in September in Charlottesville and Albemarle:

For detailed Charlottesville Virginia real estate market reports, look no further:

The 3rd Quarter “Nest Report” –

(nearly) Third Quarter Market Report for Charlottesville Region

Additionally, if you would like to help me vet some new market reports for the Charlottesville area, please let me know. The early feedback from a few readers has been exceptionally helpful and insightful. Once I tweak, finalize and release them, I think you’ll really like them.

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If you’re curious about and/or familiar with the Charlottesville real estate market – especially if you’re a consumer – buyer, seller, voyeur, critic of – I’d love your help with some market statistics that I am putting together.

Deep, charts, statistics … they’re hip and cool … I just need to ascertain their accuracy, granular relevance and what questions they raise, so I can clean ‘em up and answer the questions before I put them to the general public and my clients.

Please contact me and let me know if you’re willing to help, and get a preview of something I think is mighty nifty.

Additionally, if you’d like to sign up for my monthly newsletter or quarterly reports:

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This report is far more comprehensive than any we have done to date. Read, digest, ask questions, and try not to get lost in the forest whilst looking for trees.

In the next few days and weeks, I will be expanding on some points within this report.

Nest Realty Group Charlottesville Virginia Real Estate Market Report – 3rd Quarter 2009

Download the market report here:

Nest Realty group 3Q 2009 Real Estate Market Report.pdf

There may be more conversation at the Nest Report blog as well.

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Have we reached bottom? I don’t think so, but will say we’ve hit bottom when I have the benefit of 18 months of hindsight.

My prediction: we’re going to continue to see downward trending of prices until the third or fourth quarter 2010, followed by price stability/stagnation until homes start to appreciate again.

Here we are …

Right Now:

2,328 Homes actively for sale in the Charlottesville MLS in the Central Virginia area*

410 Under Contract

1,589 Homes have sold so far this year. **

Looking at the 2008 Third Quarter Market Report for the Charlottesville area:

Right now*, there are 2,380 homes on the market. 551 are listed as being under contract.

I hesitate posting these more than ever because this evolving/shifting market is so incredibly localized in some respects that the below statistics can be misleading, deceptive, or both. Here’s why:

In Albemarle County, there are 644 single family homes for sale in the Charlottesville MLS.

The least expensive home for sale is $49,000.
The most expensive home for sale is $18,000,000.

In the Third Quarter 2009:

228 Single Family homes sold in Albemarle County.

The least expensive home sold for $75,000. Original list price was $124,900.
The most expensive home sold for $7,200,000. Original list price was $12,950,000.

These two homes are weighted the same when looking at the top-level numbers.

* Charlottesville, Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, Nelson

** Right now is October 8, 2009 at about 11pm

Looking at inventory levels, days on market, etc: (pay no attention to the % Diff Sell/List – it’s likely very inaccurate)

The good news: inventory and days on market are down. Not so great news: we still have a ways to go before we burn through our existing inventory.

2006

2007

2008

2009

And a quick national perspective, courtesy of the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (pdf):

Median Prices – for the Third Quarters of 2009 and 2008, respectively.

Single Family Homes in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, 3rd Quarter 2009:

Single Family Homes in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, 3rd Quarter 2008:

Attached Homes in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, 3rd Quarter 2009:

Attached Homes in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, 3rd Quarter 2008:

Condos in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Nelson, 3rd Quarter 2009:

Condos in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Nelson, 3rd Quarter 2008:

:

( (water hole photo courtesy)
(Einstein photo courtesy)
Unemployment: Is Hiring Around the Corner?

For the week ended October 3, Weekly Jobless Claims measured 521,000, comparing favorably against the previous week’s revised figure of 554,000. The periodic tally of new unemployment benefits filers reached its lowest flow rate since January. The count also proved better than the economists’ consensus forecast of 540,000, based on Bloomberg’s survey. As a result of the favorable figure, the four-week moving average also improved by 9,000, to 539,750.

Banks Under-reserving for Commercial Real Estate Losses

There has been a peculiar disconnect between the “the crisis is over, on with the recovery” drumbeat of news, and the sobering reality that a good deal of credit bubble overhang still remains to be dealt with.

One of the biggest areas is commercial real estate. Various experts, including Apollo Management’s Leon Black warned of $2 trillion in losses in the offing in the commercial real estate arena. Yet those losses seem not to have hit bank balance sheets and earnings.

FHA Bailout Seen

- “FHA is making much larger loans than in the past. Its top dollar limit is $729,500 versus its old top of $362,000 in 2008.” This exposes the FHA more to high risk states like California.

…
- The first-time homebuyer tax credit is being used as a downpayment, and Pinto draws a comparison to the horrible default performance of the DAPs (downpayment assistance program) loans.

Reis: Strip Mall Vacancy Rate Hits 10.3%, Highest Since 1992

Reis reports the strip mall vacancy rate hit 10.3% in Q3 2009; the highest vacancy rate since 1992. And rents are cliff diving …

Housing Slump Erased $3.4 Trillion of Wealth in 2008

As McKinsey points out, in 2008 the value of US residential real estate fell 10%. The global average fared only somewhat better, declining by almost 4%.

“We estimate that falling home prices erased more than $3.4 trillion of household wealth in 2008,” McKinsey wrote. “And because home prices are slow to correct, the current slide may persist for some time, which could depress global consumption.”

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As with most everything when looking the Charlottesville area real estate market, look for the trends, rather than the specific data points. The Nest Report is coming shortly as is the market report I do every quarter.

The following is provided by the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors:

Where Are We Now?

Home sales, compared to 2008, showed improvement in the 3rd Quarter. At mid-year, sales were down 28%, but after the first 9 months of the year, sales are only 19% below the 2008 levels. In the third quarter, sales (845) were only down 6.2% from the same period in 2008 (901). This is the smallest year over year decline we have seen in several quarters in the Charlottesville area. July and August monthly sales were very close to 2008 levels, but September fell back a bit.

As reported in the CAAR Mid-Year Market Report, significantly lower home prices (down 20% or more) are driving the pick-up in sales. In addition, the $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers has supercharged the sale of starter homes (below $300,000). 65% of home sales in the third quarter were in this starter home category, which is consistent with the overall trend for the entire year. The surge in first-time buyers is also a national trend.

Home Sales for the First Nine Months

There were 2,001 homes sold in the Charlottesville area during the first nine months of 2009, which was down 19.1% (-471 sales) from 2008. All local areas are still down from last year: Albemarle -5.4%, Charlottesville -27.4%, Fluvanna -25.3%, Greene -7.7%, Louisa -28.9%, Nelson -25.8%, and Orange -25.5%. Monthly sales for the region had improved slightly each month since November 2008, but that string was broken in August due to normal seasonal swings.

Sales in the Central Valley region were generated from the Greater Augusta MLS, which has more complete data on the Valley market than the CAAR MLS. Sales were down in the Valley by 18.5 % compared to last year.

Have Home Prices Dropped?

Based on the data from the CAAR MLS, we believe that the numbers clearly show a significant decrease in home prices. The median prices listed below are the middle of the market of properties that sold. Simply put, this is an indication of what buyers were willing/able to pay and is not a true reflection of individual home prices. It is probably safe to assume that a steady, year- to-year decrease in the median price is a good indication that prices are going down, but it is not an exact measurement.

We believe the numbers displayed below provide compelling evidence that our local real estate market has experienced a noteworthy drop in home prices. The CAAR market reports have been discussing this trend since the Fall of 2007, and this report shows more evidence of the decline. The one caveat that we need to make is that part of this median price decline is a reflection of an increase in home sales in the lower price ranges. Of the 845 homes that sold in the 3rd quarter, 545 were sold for $300,000 or less. This surge in the lower end of the market will naturally pull the median price down.

Overall, the median home price (including attached homes) declined $17,100 (-6.4%) compared to the first nine months of last year. For the first time, the quarterly report shows that the area median price actually dropped below the 2005 median price. All areas covered in this report showed a decline except for Nelson, which remained flat. Median price changes for each locality were as follows: Albemarle (-9.5%), Charlottesville (-6.8%), Fluvanna (-17.1%), Greene (- 4.5%), Louisa (-16.7%), Nelson (0%), Orange (-28.7%) and the Valley (-8.7%).

2009 CAAR Market Report – 3rd Quarter

* I’m testing something with the Charlottesville zip codes, please bear with me.

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The Third Quarter Charlottesville Area Market Report is around the corner …

I’ve asked before and I’ll ask again – What do you want to know?

- Median price?
- Sales volume?
- Breakdown by property type?
- Forecasts/projections?
- How many foreclosures are there? (nobody has any idea, really)
- What percentage of home sales are new construction?

(Will it really take fourteen years for home prices to regain their peaks?

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The first 17 days of September. This is the time of year that we start to see the Charlottesville real estate market start to slow down … I tell my clients that if they’re looking to sell their house, things tend to taper off until October and once we hit Halloween, we’re looking at Thanksgiving, then Christmas, Hanukkah, winter …

The orange column shows the number of residential properties that both came on the market and went under contract in the first seventeen days of September – an indication of properties that were priced very well.

For this chart, the Charlottesville MSA is defined as Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greeen and Nelson.

I’m going to try to continue these Friday charts … please let me know what you would be interested in seeing.

Update: Numbers as requested.

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Looking at the data a little bit differently:

Charlottesville MSA for this post is comprised of Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson.

Update 10 September 2009 … I’m still working on this …

(w/ help from @wkdavis)

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Huge thank you to Barry Merchant with VHDA for speaking and CAAR for inviting him again to speak. This is an update to his presentation in March of this year, and it was informative, enlightening, candid and sobering.

Comments, questions and feedback welcomed. I’m planning to leave this post at the top of the page for at least the next few days, as the charts, graphs and information are very valuable. I am also planning to post my thoughts and comments shortly, but wanted to get this up as quickly as possible.

CAAR Conference Presentation 6 August 2009

Download the presentation yourself:

PDF

Powerpoint

See it on my Posterous

Google Docs

One of the brightest notes was the audience – I looked around and the vast majority of the audience were experienced, productive Realtors from the Charlottesville area.

Update 2 – -8/7/9: CAAR provides coverage/linkage

Update 1 – 8/7/9 – Podcast:

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Today, Nest Realty Group released our first mid-year market report. Personally, I am excited about this because it represents one of the reasons we originally partnered – to produce more thorough and comprehensive real estate market reports and analysis for the Charlottesville, Virginia region. This report is but a start, as we are already planning supplements to the report.

Please, read the whole thing. Download it as a PDF with full charts and graphs here.

From the "Positive Signs" section (bolding mine):

2. Anecdotally, if you talk with any active Realtor in the local market, they’ll tell you that there are definitely buyers looking at properties. We don’t have access to the ‘total number of house showings’ for the entire Charlottesville EMSA, but there is a healthy flow of real buyers still in our market that are ready, willing, and able to purchase homes. Here’s the proof: approximately 1 in 3 single family homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle that have sold in 2009 were on the market for less than 30 days (32% to be exact). In fact, approximately 1 in 4 single family homes that have sold so far in 2009 went under contract in less than 2 weeks. While we’re not completely sold on the accuracy of ‘Days on Market’ (DOM) given that some Realtors attempt to ‘game‘ the system, it is a positive sign that homes do sell quickly if they are in good condition, in a good location, and priced well.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us anytime. We licensed it under a Creative Commons license, so feel free to use it how you see fit (with attribution, of course).

Update: Direct Link to PDF is here.

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