First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.

…
For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012.

I place a great deal of credibility in Calculated Risk; I’ve learned a tremendous amount there over the years. I’m not certain the bottom is quite here in the Charlottesville area, but I’m inclined to think we’re close.

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I’ve said it before. Case Shiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville real estate market summed up in one phrase: it doesn’t exist.

As I said this morning on Google+ -

So we’re getting ready to widely release Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter 2012 Nest Report … there’s some interesting data and analysis in there.

Combined with the reports I’m hearing from agents about the massive traffic at open houses, I’m thinking that *pockets* of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate markets are likely to see some stability & even price increases this year.

As far as Case-Shiller and the NAR? They don’t track our market. They’re good insofar as they give insight into other markets and their respective psychological impacts are interesting but not particularly relevant to our local market.

Here’s Nest’s 4th Quarter report – (Download your copy of the PDF here)

What we’re seeing is this:

- Buyer activity is up. Way up, over the past few months and years

- Multiple offers on desirable properties are becoming almost common place

- Foreclosures and short sales are going to be with us for a long time

- Buyers want to buy. They just don’t want to buy crap or overpriced homes.

- (some) Sellers are becoming more realistic.

As a sign of positivity:

In the Charlottesville MSA in Jan 1-30 2011, 161 properties went under contract. This year, that # is 183. Not bad.Ed Skykes with NBC 29 reported on the Nest Report and this is one of the key snips:

But even with good news, he says there is still uncertainty.  Duncan stated, “No one’s calling a bottom by any stretch. I’ve written and said for years that we’re not going to know bottom until we have a year or two of hindsight. But right now, in our microcosm, we’re seeing very positive activity.”

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- Human settlement patterns (where people are living and working)

- Gas prices

- Expectation of permanence/transience

- Interest rates

- Property tax rates

- Monetary supply

- The internet’s availability and impact

Those are just a few of the ways that 1999 differs from 2011, and makes application of “normal” challenging.

Here’s something that hasn’t changed – people need homes. Buying a house is a choice, and one that comes with greater responsibility than renting – you’re accepting on the maintenance, the permanence, the mortgage, the community, the risk. If you’re not ready for those, don’t buy a house. If you’re ready to buy a home, do your due diligence and consider it.

“New normal” is a shifting term, applicable to virtually every evolving industry.

Heck, I’ve been seeking “new normal” for years.

But I thought I’d look at the data and briefly compare the 1999 Charlottesville area real estate market with the 2011 one … keeping in mind that so many things are different, thus negating in a lot of ways the comparisons.

And then, looking solely at single family home sales – 1999 versus 2011 in the Charlottesville MSA:

* I’m borrowing this theme from a speaker at a lunch I attended yesterday.

Keep in mind that this moving median home sale chart is for the Charlottesville MLS – not the Charlottesville MSA … meaning that more than anything it’s a trend line for the region.

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Or, we could be a long way from bottom.

Either way, I’ll let you know with authority and confidence in 18 months where we are today. The only way to know is with sufficient hindsight.

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Categorizing the Charlottesville real estate market:

– 20% distressed
– 20-30% is overpriced
– 20-25% is stuff that no one wants to buy
– 20% is in great condition, priced really well and is selling in under 60 days. *

Right now* there are 2122 homes on the market. 410 are currently under contract; 177 (43%!) have continuous days on market of under 30 days and 219 (53%) have CDOM of under 60 days.

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Listen to the podcast of my discussion with Coy Barefoot as we look back at the 2011 Charlottesville real estate market and a look forward to 2012.

Attitudes of Young Americans Bode Ill for Housing Recovery (Forbes) – This is something that is going to affect all real estate markets, not just Charlottesville’s, for years (decades?).

The lack of assets isn’t the only encumbrance to housing: Echo Boomers value education, people and leisure more than other American generations.  Of the Echo Boomers I spoke with, 13% were homeowners, yet less than a third reported interest in owning a home someday (with female Echo Boomers wanting homes more than male Echo Boomers).  They preferred graduate degrees, living in social areas (not suburbs) and freedom instead of homeownership.  A few of these Echo Boomers will need a decade to pay off their student loans after which another large loan, like a mortgage, might lack appeal.  And while suburbs seem to offer community and safety, they also add transportation costs with a lack of social diversity.

Goodbye, 0-5 Buyer -OR- Finance a House or an Education? (RealCentralVA)

People are staying in their homes longer – whether by choice or necessity. If selling is not a viable option, you need to fall in love with your house all over again.

Residential Remodeling Index at new high in October (Calculated Risk)

Now in Vogue: Practical Remodeling (Wall Street Journal)

UVA Credit Union’s Power Saver Loan-

These new PowerSaver loans will offer qualified homeowners up to $25,000 to make energy-efficient improvements of their choice, such as replacement doors and windows, metal or asphalt roofs, HVAC systems, water heaters, insulation, duct sealing, solar panels, ground source heat pump systems and more.

Interest Rates are still historically low – and they won’t start to matter until they rise.

Shadow Inventory – What will it’s affect be on the Charlottesville real estate market?

(thanks to KCM Blog for pointing this out)*”So far” is defined as 1/1/11 – 12/1/11 vs 1/1/10 – 12/1/10.

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Download the PDF of the November 2011 here

I’m working on data and analysis, but wanted to get this out today. Lots more PDFs after the jump.

These two charts fairly well depict the short sale, foreclosure and “normal” real estate transactions – there is little consistency.

Zip file of market reports for Central Virginia – Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna and Greene. Analysis coming later today.

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Or more succinctly:

@mortgagereports How will they help? More accurate data is good, but who trusts the NAR? My take is: national is irrelevant,local is crucial

There’s a bit more after the break, but the above sums it up.

And … question everything. Always. I do.Looking back to February of this year:

This is a big and important conversation because the NAR’s data, along with Case Schiller, are important, widely read, and depended on by many to ascertain the psychology of buyers, sellers – real estate consumers. Their data tries to demonstrate where we are now in the real estate market and where we’re going.

To which I say – So. What. I trust my local MLS nearly 85.7324%* myself, so why would I trust others more? I’ve said it before, when you’re evaluating the Charlottesville real estate market, ignore the national data; it will only cloud your opinion. Perhaps use it as a guide, but don’t count on it for anything other than high-level, disinterested trend lines.

And:

I started blogging to fill a void – a void of credible real estate information and analysis about the Charlottesville real estate market. Also, I needed a forum to voice my opinions (I have a lot of them). There are more bloggers today, but few respect real estate blogging as a craft to be perfected; too many see it as “the next best thing” (hint: blogging’s jumped the shark – look to Twitter for the “next” thing).

The void still exists. I’m doing my best to fill it.

Realtors spend too much time discrediting Lawrence Yun (from 2007)

A few relevant stories about the NAR’s revisions in 2011:

Calculated Risk – Lawler on NAR Revisions for 2007 through 2011

The Wall Street Journal – Housing Bust to Look Worse With Sales Revised

Matthew Ferrara – NAR Loses Nearly 1in 5 Home Sales; Confidence Next?

Zero Hedge – Existing Home Sales Debacle, As Larry ‘Baghdad-Bob’ Yun Confirms Overstatement

CNBC – Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years

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Today I’ll I touch on:

- Case Shiller
- Core Logic
- Charlottesville MLS/analysis on RealCentralVA
- Fiserv/CNN
Context matters.

Case Shiller doesn’t track the Charlottesville real estate market. Nor Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, Nelson, Waynesboro, Augusta … Case Shiller doesn’t track Charlottesville. Sure, inferences and implications can be drawn from their conclusions and analysis, but if you’re a buyer or a seller in the Charlottesville real estate market, you need to look at an analysis that speaks to your specific situation.

The chart above and the one at the bottom of this post are still too broad for a real estate buyer or seller to make a solid conclusion. What matters is what’s happening in your specific market segment, whether that’s in the City of Charlottesville or the Crozet part of Albemarle County or the Ruckersville Elementary school district in Greene County … national is useful, so long as you understand the context.*
One of the challenges with analyzing real estate on a local level and communicating that analysis to people broadly (here) and individually (to my clients and prospective clients) is this:

Many consumers are looking for a simple up or down arrow the way Newsweek used to do their trending up or down snapshots (do they still do those?). But the real estate market doesn’t lend itself to “up or down” – it’s sometimes a spiral, sometimes an arrow, and more often resembles the cord of my iPod headphones that have been used by my daughter – infuriatingly tangled, and I’m just looking for sense in it. (or the end)

I wrote in early 2008 that … “The Charlottesville/Central Virginia/Shenandoah Valley markets are not covered by the Case-Shiller index. Real estate is local; while trends may be drawn from this type of research, and while the proverbial turned-corner may still be just over the horizon, it’s important to put his study in the appropriate context. …”

Crap. That “horizon” to which I referred is still a ways off. But … what I said remains true. Case Shiller doesn’t track our market.

Fiserv purports to track our market though. I would be shocked if the Charlottesville MSA (which is what they’re forecasting; like here on RealCentralVA, they actually specify what specific area they’re analyzing/projecting) saw a nearly 5% increase in home prices next year. But …think about this when you look at the below chart from CNN Money:

I want to see their data.

I mentioned this projection to another Charlottesville agent whom I trust and respect and he laughed, “what? Because we have such a massive influx of high-paying jobs?” Aside from the government defense contractors, UVA, CFA, the jobs are coming from smaller firms.

They’re projecting market-wide a 5% increase. That’s inclusive of condos in downtown Charlottesville, single family and attached homes close to the NGIC/DIA military base, newer homes in Fluvanna County and homes for sale in Wintergreen in Nelson County.

But.

While real estate is local and always will be, Case Shiller provides insight into the national psychology of the real estate market – what buyers, sellers, real estate agents, renters – are reading and feeling. And feelings matter.

Let’s have some further context, shall we?

CoreLogic … today released negative equity data showing that 10.7 million, or 22.1 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the third quarter of 2011. This is down slightly from 10.9 million properties, or 22.5 percent, in the second quarter. An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than 5 percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the third quarter. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 27.1 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide in the third quarter, down from 27.5 in the previous quarter.

In the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Virginia’s negative equity percentages are 22.9% (down from 23.3% in Q2 2011) and the near-negative equity mortgages are an additional 6.1%. I have no idea (but would love to see) what the respective percentages are for the Charlottesville MSA.

(hat tip: Calculated Risk)

Nationally, the national negative equity percentage is up from 18% in April 2008.

The last thing for today that doesn’t seem to get factored into any of the forecasts or analyses I read is this: homeownership is at depression-level percentages, (census press release here) and I’d wager it’s likely to go lower. As I said above: how consumers feel matters. If they feel that homeownership isn’t right for them, there are going to be fewer buyers. Fewer buyers = small buying pool = decreased demand = likely lower housing prices.

Further, it is important to keep everything you see and read in its appropriate context. The following are my comments from a Facebook discussion with other real estate agents about Zillow*, agents who were questioning Zillow’s usefulness and perpetual misunderstanding of Zillow. Much of my comments can be attributed to Case Shiller and any other data source.

“Use Zillow in context, and explain its limitations and positives. It’s a great tool when it’s understood. … I welcome the opportunity to explain and defend my value and explain how I am better than an algorithm. As of right now, Zillow’s just not accurate in Charlottesville and the value of a good real estate agent is invaluable.

Zillow has a ton of information that can provide a good *guide* – how much a home might be worth (ballpark) and how much it might rent for. It shows the price history. It shows the tax and transfer history (in my market, those are empty … opportunity to show that Z’s not quite that awesome)

Mapping and schools and walkscore all in one place = useful.

Ballpark mortgage calculator = useful.

Nearby comps: utter and complete crap = opportunity to define value of me and of understanding contextual information.

“On Zillow” : does not equate to true days on market = opportunity to explain to my client what those mean.

Zillow is useful. To a degree. Bash it or love it, it’s not going away; better to understand how to explain it.”

** As much as anything, I wanted to capture my comments here rather than on Facebook … there, they’re neither findable nor searchable. Here, they’re mine.

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This is a chart showing the inventory for Scripps Ranch in San Diego, courtesy of one of the best writers I know, Kris Berg.

Contrast the above chart with the one for the Charlottesville MSA, where we have about 16 months of inventory (across all market segments, property types, location, price, etc. … this number is good for showing broad trends, but is NOT an actionable data point).

If you’re looking for Charlottesville real estate information and analysis, look for Charlottesville real estate information and analysis. National housing market “analysis” is usually provided by people who are selling something, either Case Shiller or the NAR.

Since you’re reading, here are a few things that have caught my eye this week:

[Perishable] What On Earth Is Market Value? – This is a freaking outstanding analysis of what is “market value”. Required reading for buyers, sellers and real estate folks.

The PRICE Is the Same, But the COST Is Less – “However, when you factor in mortgage rates, the case for buying a home today becomes even more compelling.”

- New Idea For Sharing Urban Roads? Sidewalks Removed on Busy London Street Forces Drivers to Slow

- More Evidence that Judges Have Had it with Banks – read this opinion if only for the Alice’s Restaurant reference.

Phillips v US Bank, N.a., Sup Ct Carroll Cty Ga.20111102

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“The National Association of Realtors says it has overestimated the number of homes sold in recent years and will soon publish revised statistics based on a new benchmarking methodology.“

To which I say: so what? I have yet to see relevance in their data, and I have never heard one of my clients reference their forecasts or recaps.

In other words:

If you’re surprised (really?!) the NAR overestimated sales, you haven’t been paying attention for the past decade.#realtors

Calculated Risk said in 2007 about the National Association of Realtors:

I think their forecasting model is broken.

My thoughts then are still relevant.

And CR said noted last week the NAR’s press release which stated:

NAR presently is benchmarking* existing-home sales, and downward revisions are expected for totals in recent years, although there will be little change to previously reported comparisons based on percentage change. There will be will be no change to median prices or month’s supply of inventory. Publication of the improved measurement methodology is expected in the near future.

I’m no statistician, but how can one pre-conclude that (see the asterisk up there?)

* There will be no change to median prices or months-supply of inventory. Although there will be downward revisions to sales volume and unsold inventory, there will be no notable change to previous characterizations of the market in terms of sales trends, monthly percentage changes, etc.

Earlier this year, I noted that folks paying attention to the national and local real estate markets really need to just ignore the NAR’s numbers.

The National Association of Realtors is a trade organization, whose mission is to help its members. I am grateful for what they do with respect to lobbying; someone’s gotta do it. But they are not an unbiased news (heh. do those exist?) organization. Remember that.Ardell says it extremely well:

My point is people have to stop thinking that “a NAR” is some kind of public interest group. They are a trade association supporting a business, the same as any other commercial.

(click through to read the whole thing)

Update 21 November 2011: Jonathan Miller notes that [NAR] October Existing Home Sales Conclusion Result Is Wildly Misleading … shocking. Still … So what?

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The City of Charlottesville’s real estate market is unique – its mix of homes – single family, condo, townhouse, the fact that is has a relatively smaller percentage of newer construction and its more dense and urban location make it quite distinctive from the surrounding markets.

First, the bullet points:

- Active Listings – Down significantly versus October of 2010, but still too many homes on the market.

- New Listings – Fewer than the past two years and trending down; this is a very good thing. As fewer houses come on the market, more houses of the existing homes for sale will sell and we’ll be able to find our way through the current spate of houses on the market. *

- All Pendings (Under Contracts) – On target with last year. Stability is good.

- New Pendings (Better reflecting current market activity) – Trending upwards, and higher than last year.

- Sold Listings – Right in line with last year. I’ll take this as a good sign as it’s not significantly down.

- Median Prices – for all homes, median prices are completely bizarre (see the various methods of portraying the data at the end of this post). I’ve looked at the sold data for the City of Charlottesville three different ways – through the provider for these charts (RBI) , through a report in the Charlottesville MLS, and manually through the Charlottesville MLS.

RBI Says 15 homes have sold. the MLS report says 16 homes have sold and the manual report says 16. Here’s the thing: there’s a range of prices in that 16 transactions. A big range, as is the least expensive was $118k and the most expensive was $1,050,000. Last October, there were 20 transactions ranging from $121k to $1,000,000 (for a condo in the Gleason building).

If you’re thinking about buying or selling in the City, frankly, these numbers don’t mean much as they don’t reflect your market! You’re either in the market for a condo at 1800 JPA or a home in one of the finer neighborhoods in the City, but probably not both.

I’d love to include the numbers and charts for Days on Market and the List Price to Sales Price ratio, but I have found that the only, only, only way to run these numbers with any degree of accuracy is to do it manually. For specific properties and neighborhoods.

Note also that these numbers and charts are for everything – single family, attached and condos – your market will vary.

* I’m not totally convinced that the houses that are coming on the market in the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate market are the ones that buyers want to buy - whether size or energy efficiencies, I think that the inventory we’ve seen over the past 18 months has not quite matched to what buyers want, and this is a reason that we’ve seen the new construction market in the Charlottesville area do so well.

Click any chart to enlarge

Now, the charts and graphs …

Click any chart to enlarge

Median Sales Prices for Single Family Homes in the City of Charlottesville:

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Now to look at the Albemarle County real estate market …

First, the bullet points:

- Active Listings – Fewer than last year, but still too high.

- New Listings – Fewer than the past two years and trending down; this is a very good thing. As fewer houses come on the market, more houses will sell and we’l be able to find our way through the current spate of houses on the market. *

- All Pendings (Under Contracts) – Higher than the last two years; this is a very good thing. People are buying real estate.

- New Pendings (Better reflecting current market activity) – Trending upward, slightly.

- Sold Listings – Slightly higher than last year.

- Median Sales Price (for all properties) – Lower than last year, trending up.

I’d love to include the numbers and charts for Days on Market and the List Price to Sales Price ratio, but I have found that the only, only, only way to run these numbers with any degree of accuracy is to do it manually. For specific properties and neighborhoods.

Also, keep in mind that top-level analysis for Albemarle County reflects all transactions in the Charlottesville MLS – in October of 2011, there were 82 transactions, from a $70 condo short sale in the Eagles Landing development to the $1.85 million foreclosure that was the original home at Bundoran Farm. Everything is a wide, wide range of single family, attached homes and condos – Your market will vary.

* I’m not totally convinced that the houses that are coming on the market in the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate market are the ones that buyers want to buy - whether size or energy efficiencies, I think that the inventory we’ve seen over the past 18 months has not quite matched to what buyers want, and this is a reason that we’ve seen the new construction market in the Charlottesville area do so well.

Click any chart to enlarge

Now, the charts and graphs …

Click any chart to enlarge

Median Sales Price for Single Family Homes in the County of Albemarle:

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Barry Merchant has annually provided some of the best, most realistic market insight to the state, regional and Charlottesville area real estate markets.

Barry Merchant’s presentation to CAAR – 10-26-2011If first time homebuyers are going to be critical to the housing market’s return … how can one reasonably think that the next generation of indebted college graduates are going to be able to contribute to the return?

(thanks to the American blog for the chart)

.Download the Powerpoint presentation here

For Context:

Goodbye, 0-5 Buyer -OR- Finance a House or an Education?

- Barry Merchant’s presentation from March 26, 2009

- Barry Merchant’s presentation from November 11, 2010

- Conversation about some of the sociological benefits of a recession

- Rise in Sticker Price at Public Colleges Outpaces That at Private Colleges for 5th Year in a Row

Update 28 October 2011:

The NYTimes reports: Economy Alters How Americans Are Moving

Essentially, millions of Americans have become frozen in place, researchers say, unable to sell their homes and unsure they would find jobs elsewhere anyway.

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Nest Realty’s 3rd Quarter Market Report (PDF)

Download, read it, print it, mark it with your questions and let me know what you think. There are some bright spots (Charlottesville Single Family home sales up nearly 30%) and some bizarre data points that highlight how every market is local (Nelson’s sales are off 48%).

More to come.

Nest Realty’s 3rd Quarter Market Report (PDF)

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CAAR 3rd Quarter Real Estate Market Report – 2011

This post will be updated throughout the day as I get opportunities to look at the data. …

Notes:

- The above report is for the entire Charlottesville MLS area, not Charlottesvill and Albemarle or even the Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson) or even the Charlottesville MSA + Louisa. So take it for what it’s worth – a very broad overview of the entire Central Virginia region. Example: in Amherst, Augusta, Buckingham, Goochland, Rockbridge and Lexington, there are 156 closed transactions in our MLS … which isn’t particularly relevant to real estate consumers in the Charlottesville area.

- Days on Market is not statistically accurate, as it does not reflect relistings of properties.

- The Charlottesville market is still declining.

- Detailed market report from Nest coming soon, as is county by county break down.

- Townhouse/Attached median sold price is down in the Charlottesville/Albemarle area, in no small part due to high volumes* driving prices through the floor market-wide.

- Median sales prices are down, but inventory is down as well; the latter qualifying as a good data point.

- What questions do you have about the market data?

Interactive Charts are after the jump; I choose to use the static charts rather than the interactive reports as I don’t like to be locked into a service; I pay $30 a month for access to the deeper data and if I choose to not pay for the service, the interactive charts go away … not a good option.

* edited to remove a certain builder’s name. Ask me if you’re curious.

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Seth Godin notes today:

A new generation, one that grew up with a data surplus, is coming along. To this cohort, it’s no big deal to miss a tweet or ten, to delete a blog from your reader or to not return a text or even a voice mail. The new standard for a vacation email is, “When I get back, I’m going to delete all the email in my box, so if it’s important, please re-send it next week.”

This is what always happens when something goes from scarce to surplus. First we bathe in it, then we waste it.

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- Goodbye, 0-5 Buyer -OR- Finance a House or an Education? in which I discuss the elimination of the short-term homeowner and this effect on the Charlottesville area real estate market

and

- Categorizing the Charlottesville Real Estate Market – in which I break the market down into four segments – from distressed to price aggressively.

This is just a reasonably high-level overview of the Albemarle real estate market. But … this matters little to you if you’re looking for a home in Albemarle, start your home search here. If you’re curious about what’s happening in your location in Albemarle, or are currently searching for homes for sale in Albemarle, please feel free to contact me anytime with questions.

Sold listings are down in Albemarle County year over year:

See also:

Charlottesville MSA Real Estate Market Update – 30 August 2011 – How this matters to You

Median Sold Price for Single Family homes in Albemarle County is down. I opted for embedding the data rather in lieu of the pretty chart – figure most of my readers prefer numbers rather than flash.

Active inventory is down – and this is a good thing.

New listings coming on the market is good as well – eventually, fewer homes coming on the market combined with (really, we’ll get there eventually) will lead to a balanced market. When will we achieve balance? No one knows.

* Of the options available in the new real estate data package, the ones that I cannot use are the Days on Market and the Ratio of Original List Price to Final Sold Price – both of which are far too easily manipulated.

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As I noted in 2006 (Good Lord, it’s been that long that we’ve been searching for a bottom?!)

How do we know that the housing “bust/correction/adjustment” (how about “change”) is over? My answer – when we are able to look back from a perspective of nine to eighteen months and say, “see, here are the data, this is the trend of where we were, and here is where we are.” Until then, speculation about every move – a move of any kind -  of the market is just that – speculation, even if it’s educated speculation.

But … In this market, a slowing decline of home prices is a good thing. Seriously.

This is just a reasonably high-level overview of the City of Charlottesville’s real estate market. If you’re curious about what’s happening in your location in Charlottesville, or are currently searching for homes for sale in Greene, please feel free to contact me anytime with questions.

Sold listings are up ever so slightly in the City of Charlottesville year over year:

See also:

Charlottesville MSA Real Estate Market Update – 30 August 2011 – How this matters to You

Median Sold Price for Single Family homes in the City of Charlottesville is down, and looking at the numbers below, we can see the the median price peak was only a couple years ago, rather than four or five as is seen in other segments. I opted for embedding the data rather in lieu of the pretty chart – figure most of my readers prefer numbers rather than flash.

Active inventory is down – and this is a good thing.

New listings coming on the market is good as well – eventually, fewer homes coming on the market combined with (really, we’ll get there eventually) will lead to a balanced market. When will we achieve balance? No one knows.

* Of the options available in the new real estate data package, the ones that I cannot use are the Days on Market and the Ratio of Original List Price to Final Sold Price – both of which are far too easily manipulated.

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