Charlottesville market report coming Monday

While I had planned to release the market report for the Charlottesville market today, I have noticed that even properties that closed ten days ago have not yet been closed in the MLS. In an attempt to provide the most accurate data, I’m going to wait until Sunday afternoon to write the report. (and I still need to find the best report to present the median price)

Thanks for your patience.

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June 6, 2008 | Filed Under Albemarle, Charlottesville, Market statistics, Nelson, Waynesboro | Leave a Comment 

Fiber in Nelson County?

This would expand the market for people looking to live in an area as remarkably beautiful as Nelson, but be able to to telecommute.

February 29, 2008 | Filed Under Nelson | Leave a Comment 

Charlottesville area listing inventory numbers

Between the first of January 2006 to the 8th of January 2006, 225 properties were listed. For that same timeframe for this year, 132 residential properties have been listed.*

There were 23 price changes in this timeframe in 2006 versus 60 price changes in 2007. Without a way to determine whether these were changes upwards or down, this is honestly a bit of a shot in the dark; my very educated guess is that these price changes in 2007 were more down than up.

Witness this new construction property in Crozet that came on the market last June - it started at one million three hundred forty nine thousand and was just reduced to $899,000!

—

NB: Contrast what follows with what was released in yesterday’s End of 2006 market report:

One factor that affects the DOM statistic is inventory. If inventory is low, then there are fewer properties for buyers to consider and properties sell more quickly. CAAR tracks the number of new listings that come on the market each quarter to help us monitor the inventory of available homes. As of early January 2007, our database has 2,504 homes actively listed for sale.

What that 2504 number includes is every county that is in our database! Including only our MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Fluvanna and Nelson), there are as of 10 January 2006, 1672 properties actively on the market. See what a little digging into the numbers reveals?

For example, there are 184 properties on the market in Madison and Orange Counties - at least 35-45 minutes north and north east of Charlottesville. There are 14 on the market in Rockbridge County (home of my alma mater) - at least an hour and fifteen minutes away (realistically 90 minutes).

Less inventory is a good thing, at least in this transitional market.

* Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Fluvanna, Nelson
* This post was inspired by Rob’s continuous tracking of his market. All real estate is local. 
* I have not seen an analysis such as this anywhere else.

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January 10, 2007 | Filed Under Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Market statistics, Nelson | 2 Comments 

Housing numbers are down

And inventory is up.

Rates are low.
Home price appreciation is slowing.
Inventory is up. Significantly.

note: as soon as I figure out how to upload an image via coding, rather than depending on my normal program, I will.

Regarding NAR’s press release: They have an obligation to present the facts, and their best opinions. Everybody has opinions and interpretation of data. Assumptions and conclusions may (and usually do) differ.

Take this for example:

Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dipped 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.18 million units in September from a level of 6.30 million in August, and were 14.2 percent below the 7.20 million-unit pace in September 2005, which was the third strongest month on record.

And compare NAR’s spin:


“The good news is that fewer new listings are coming online. A stable sales pace is expected to draw down the number of listings to a supply balance that will support positive price growth within a few months. Taking the long view is always the best way to approach housing decisions, and right now, buyers are in a very favorable market.”

With the Calculated Risk’s “alternate” take on the report:

Sales plummeted 16.3% from September 2005. This is a record YoY (Year over Year) Sales decline.

Median Prices dropped 2.2% from September 2005. Bloomberg: “… the biggest year- over-year decline since record-keeping began in 1969.”

Locally in the Charlottesville region (inclusive of Charlottesville/Albemarle/Fluvanna/Greene/Louisa/Nelson), the market has slowed. Using a quick YoY analysis, in September of 2005, 333 residential properties closed. In September 2006, 211 closed - quite a drop year over year.

Listings under contract - September 2005 - 305 listings went under contract. In September 2006 - 214. Sit down. Take a breath. It will be ok.

And here you have the Virginia roundup from The Housing Bubble Blog, while Dewita’s calling NoVa a Buyers’ Market. A different one, but a Buyers’ Market all the same.

October 26, 2006 | Filed Under Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, General Real Estate, Greene, Louisa, Market statistics, Nelson | 5 Comments 

Connected communities

As our region continues to grow, each area has its own perspective on how to handle growth -

Why the focus on so many counties? Simple - they are all connected. The land-use decisions in Louisa will impact the real estate market in CharlAlbemarle - if more people are able to comfortably buy, live and work in Louisa, perhaps fewer people will move to CharlAlbemarle. As broadband becomes more prevalent in Nelson, that rural county will be more of a viable option. But where will the people work? Will they telecommute to Colorado? Will they commute to Charlottesville? Waynesboro? What will be the impact on infrastructure?

If one of these counties becomes more or less business friendly, the connected communities will be impacted; how I am not sure yet; but make no mistake - they will be impacted. Whether these counties like it or not, they are affected by external decisions.
Fluvanna County learns about the value of Greenways from a local visionary -

One way to think about a Greenways project, Mahon said, is to think four or five generations ahead. If you look beyond your personal self-interest, you can see that it will be a contribution to the future.

Orange County -

Resident, after resident, after resident lined up to speak in strong disapproval to the proposed Annandale development. The 244 acre site would sit just outside of Gordonsville and house nearly 500 single family homes for people ages 55 and up. Some residents felt this many homes could destroy the small town feel.

Nelson County -

In addressing Nellysford, Rue said there could be three routes taken to complete the plan. They include long-term transportation and business growth, a focus of safety issues on Virginia 151 or a plan that looks at safety as well as business growth.

Louisa County: questions are raised regarding the mixed-use implementation as they revise their Comprehensive Plan -

The suggested changes would define “very low density residential development” as one dwelling unit per acre and “low density residential development” as up to two dwelling units per acre. High density residential development would be defined as more than six units per acre.  “These really sound more like urban densities,” said Jim Scharf, Green Springs district commissioner. … (and one person remarked)  “If [one house per acre] is very low density,” she said, “I don’t know what life is going to be like around here.”

What if a rural county wants to maintain its rural character?

And one of my favorites comes from Trish, who laments the changing landscape of the CharlAlbemarle area -

Why do we have to completely strip the land to build anything? … I could go on an on but I’ll just end by saying that Central VA really needs to wake up and be as environmentally responsible as they “claim” to be.

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April 22, 2006 | Filed Under Albemarle, Charlottesville, General Real Estate, Growth, Louisa, Nelson, Orange | 5 Comments 

Population increases (shocking!)

The Weldon Cooper Center has released a study showing population increases throughout the Commonwealth. The Thomas Jefferson Planning District (our region) has seen a fairly significant increase in its population - 7.5%.

Albemarle has seen a provisional change of 7.4%.
Charlottesville - (-.5%)
Greene - 11.2%
Fluvanna - 24.4%
Louisa - 12.1%
Nelson -  4.2%

The above numbers are the total percentages, combining the natural increases and the change due to migration. Settlement patterns continue to fascinate me. Even if we don’t build the roads, apparently people continue to come here. Where, however, is the Tipping Point?

Supply and demand (and interest rates) has thus far kept housing prices increasing. With growth such as this, I think that we are on track to maintain a moderate increase in prices, so long as government stays out of the free market.

Thanks to Bacons’ Rebellion for the heads-up.

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January 26, 2006 | Filed Under Albemarle, Charlottesville, General Real Estate, Greene, Growth, Louisa, Nelson | 2 Comments 

A few new listings

I have just listed a couple of homes that are not yet in the MLS. We have decided not to put them in the MLS for a variety of reasons, and each property and clients’ reasons are different.

If you have the time and are interested, please check out:

Home on almost 2 acres 15 minutes from Downtown.
Unique home that flows very well in Wintergreen. (this one will be in the MLS today or tomorrow)
Great home on 4 beautiful acres in Afton.

Don’t forget about:

This gorgeous home in Crozet. PODCAST!
Nice private home in NE Albemarle.

November 23, 2005 | Filed Under Albemarle, Charlottesville, General Real Estate, Nelson, Podcast, Sellers | Leave a Comment 

Telecommuters, taxes and traffic

Technology is doing something transit planners have been unable to do for decades - get people out of their cars. Telecommuters, people working from home, now outnumber mass transit commuters in 27 of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas, according to a new study by Reason Foundation. The summary of the report is here (PDF).

From a housing market point of view, more telecommuters means all of the above including more intellectual capital in the region, higher salaries and a potentially more stable local economy.  Heck, even the PEC supports telecommuting: And, he said, state officials should pass transit and telecommuting tax credits. ‘If we pass those tax credits in this session, you will immediately see traffic improvements,’ Miller said. ‘I guarantee it.’”

The localities that host the telecommuters benefit greatly:

Based on research from other private sector and public organization telecommuting experience, benefits to the employee are likely to include increased job satisfaction, reduced commuting time and transportation costs, diminished stress, improved quality of life, and improved family functioning. Societal contributions include environmental and energy conservation, less traffic congestion on area highways, reduced family stress, increased civic involvement in local communities, and improved economic development at local and regional levels.

Where are the negatives? Can this be likened to the argument that consumers should pay local state sales taxes on internet purchases, e.g. Amazon, et. al?

Why did it take governments so long to try and tax these employees?

The Charlottesville area has a high broadband saturation level, there are hotspots everywhere, the discussion of blanketing the area with wireless has been broached … what’s next?

Should our region try to court these telecommuters? Should we follow Nelson’s lead?

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November 21, 2005 | Filed Under Albemarle, Charlottesville, General Real Estate, Nelson, Technology, Transportation | Leave a Comment 

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