Guest post from Matt Hodges with Compass Home Loans:

Every year in mid-late November, conforming loan limits are set for the next year. This year, our government gave us a bit of a surprise on the Freddie/Fannie limits and a very nice surprise on the FHA limits. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the mortgage world and the real estate markets have been tumultuous this year. There is little investor confidence is any mortgage product not named Freddie, Fannie or Ginnie. Hence, the government has meddled into the market. Perhaps you could say nationalized the market.

Back to our November surprise. The national loan limits for Freddie and Fannie remain at $417,000, but because we are in a “high cost” area, our limits have been expanded to $437,000. It’s a nice surprise because that loan limit should correspond to the real estate marketplace. Yet, for the past three years, the limit has remained the same, despite dropping house values nationwide. Now, the very good news is that FHA has raised their limits to $417,000 nationwide and $437,000 locally (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, Nelson (excel file).

By the way, buy in Louisa (pdf), and your loan limit is $535,900 -they are part of Richmond’s MSA.

Waynesboro and the rest of the Valley remains at $417,000 for Fannie/Freddie and range between $271,050 and $277,150 for FHA.

Previously, the FHA limit was $323,000, but in March FHA was allowed to raise the limit to $425,000. This increased limit came with a cost of about .5 point higher in rate, so many borrowers declined this route. Now, with all three entities operating on the same page, borrowers will have clear choices and that better reflect costs of housing in our area.

Further, often clients are choosing FHA over conventional loans, even when they have upwards of 10% down payment. Given the restricted ability to acquire home equity lines and loans, mortgage insurance premiums can be significantly higher for conventional over FHA, with no discernable difference in interest rate.

Ed note: I have two additional guest posts tentatively lined up for the coming weeks. One on short sales in the Charlottesville/Albemarle area and one that sheds light on the local builders’ point of view.

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While I had planned to release the market report for the Charlottesville market today, I have noticed that even properties that closed ten days ago have not yet been closed in the MLS. In an attempt to provide the most accurate data, I’m going to wait until Sunday afternoon to write the report. (and I still need to find the best report to present the median price)

Thanks for your patience.

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This would expand the market for people looking to live in an area as remarkably beautiful as Nelson, but be able to to telecommute.

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Between the first of January 2006 to the 8th of January 2006, 225 properties were listed. For that same timeframe for this year, 132 residential properties have been listed.*

There were 23 price changes in this timeframe in 2006 versus 60 price changes in 2007. Without a way to determine whether these were changes upwards or down, this is honestly a bit of a shot in the dark; my very educated guess is that these price changes in 2007 were more down than up.

Witness this new construction property in Crozet that came on the market last June – it started at one million three hundred forty nine thousand and was just reduced to $899,000!

—

NB: Contrast what follows with what was released in yesterday’s End of 2006 market report:

One factor that affects the DOM statistic is inventory. If inventory is low, then there are fewer properties for buyers to consider and properties sell more quickly. CAAR tracks the number of new listings that come on the market each quarter to help us monitor the inventory of available homes. As of early January 2007, our database has 2,504 homes actively listed for sale.

What that 2504 number includes is every county that is in our database! Including only our MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Fluvanna and Nelson), there are as of 10 January 2006, 1672 properties actively on the market. See what a little digging into the numbers reveals?

For example, there are 184 properties on the market in Madison and Orange Counties – at least 35-45 minutes north and north east of Charlottesville. There are 14 on the market in Rockbridge County (home of my alma mater) – at least an hour and fifteen minutes away (realistically 90 minutes).

Less inventory is a good thing, at least in this transitional market.

* Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Fluvanna, Nelson
* This post was inspired by Rob’s continuous tracking of his market. All real estate is local. 
* I have not seen an analysis such as this anywhere else.

Technorati Tags: albemarle, charlalbemarle, charlottesville, fluvanna, green

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And inventory is up.

Rates are low.
Home price appreciation is slowing.
Inventory is up. Significantly.

note: as soon as I figure out how to upload an image via coding, rather than depending on my normal program, I will.

Regarding NAR’s press release: They have an obligation to present the facts, and their best opinions. Everybody has opinions and interpretation of data. Assumptions and conclusions may (and usually do) differ.

Take this for example:

Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dipped 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.18 million units in September from a level of 6.30 million in August, and were 14.2 percent below the 7.20 million-unit pace in September 2005, which was the third strongest month on record.

And compare NAR’s spin:

“The good news is that fewer new listings are coming online. A stable sales pace is expected to draw down the number of listings to a supply balance that will support positive price growth within a few months. Taking the long view is always the best way to approach housing decisions, and right now, buyers are in a very favorable market.”

With the Calculated Risk’s “alternate” take on the report:

Sales plummeted 16.3% from September 2005. This is a record YoY (Year over Year) Sales decline.

Median Prices dropped 2.2% from September 2005. Bloomberg: “… the biggest year- over-year decline since record-keeping began in 1969.”

Locally in the Charlottesville region (inclusive of Charlottesville/Albemarle/Fluvanna/Greene/Louisa/Nelson), the market has slowed. Using a quick YoY analysis, in September of 2005, 333 residential properties closed. In September 2006, 211 closed – quite a drop year over year.

Listings under contract – September 2005 – 305 listings went under contract. In September 2006 – 214. Sit down. Take a breath. It will be ok.

And here you have the Virginia roundup from The Housing Bubble Blog, while Dewita’s calling NoVa a Buyers’ Market. A different one, but a Buyers’ Market all the same.

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As our region continues to grow, each area has its own perspective on how to handle growth -

Why the focus on so many counties? Simple – they are all connected. The land-use decisions in Louisa will impact the real estate market in CharlAlbemarle – if more people are able to comfortably buy, live and work in Louisa, perhaps fewer people will move to CharlAlbemarle. As broadband becomes more prevalent in Nelson, that rural county will be more of a viable option. But where will the people work? Will they telecommute to Colorado? Will they commute to Charlottesville? Waynesboro? What will be the impact on infrastructure?

If one of these counties becomes more or less business friendly, the connected communities will be impacted; how I am not sure yet; but make no mistake – they will be impacted. Whether these counties like it or not, they are affected by external decisions.
Fluvanna County learns about the value of Greenways from a local visionary -

One way to think about a Greenways project, Mahon said, is to think four or five generations ahead. If you look beyond your personal self-interest, you can see that it will be a contribution to the future.

Orange County -

Resident, after resident, after resident lined up to speak in strong disapproval to the proposed Annandale development. The 244 acre site would sit just outside of Gordonsville and house nearly 500 single family homes for people ages 55 and up. Some residents felt this many homes could destroy the small town feel.

Nelson County -

In addressing Nellysford, Rue said there could be three routes taken to complete the plan. They include long-term transportation and business growth, a focus of safety issues on Virginia 151 or a plan that looks at safety as well as business growth.

Louisa County: questions are raised regarding the mixed-use implementation as they revise their Comprehensive Plan -

The suggested changes would define “very low density residential development” as one dwelling unit per acre and “low density residential development” as up to two dwelling units per acre. High density residential development would be defined as more than six units per acre.  “These really sound more like urban densities,” said Jim Scharf, Green Springs district commissioner. … (and one person remarked)  “If [one house per acre] is very low density,” she said, “I don’t know what life is going to be like around here.”

What if a rural county wants to maintain its rural character?

And one of my favorites comes from Trish, who laments the changing landscape of the CharlAlbemarle area -

Why do we have to completely strip the land to build anything? … I could go on an on but I’ll just end by saying that Central VA really needs to wake up and be as environmentally responsible as they “claim” to be.

Technorati Tags: albemarle, charlalbemarle, charlottesville, fluvanna, growth

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The Weldon Cooper Center has released a study showing population increases throughout the Commonwealth. The Thomas Jefferson Planning District (our region) has seen a fairly significant increase in its population – 7.5%.

Albemarle has seen a provisional change of 7.4%.
Charlottesville – (-.5%)
Greene – 11.2%
Fluvanna – 24.4%
Louisa – 12.1%
Nelson -  4.2%

The above numbers are the total percentages, combining the natural increases and the change due to migration. Settlement patterns continue to fascinate me. Even if we don’t build the roads, apparently people continue to come here. Where, however, is the Tipping Point?

Supply and demand (and interest rates) has thus far kept housing prices increasing. With growth such as this, I think that we are on track to maintain a moderate increase in prices, so long as government stays out of the free market.

Thanks to Bacons’ Rebellion for the heads-up.

Technorati Tags: growth

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I have just listed a couple of homes that are not yet in the MLS. We have decided not to put them in the MLS for a variety of reasons, and each property and clients’ reasons are different.

If you have the time and are interested, please check out:

Home on almost 2 acres 15 minutes from Downtown.
Unique home that flows very well in Wintergreen. (this one will be in the MLS today or tomorrow)
Great home on 4 beautiful acres in Afton.

Don’t forget about:

This gorgeous home in Crozet. PODCAST!
Nice private home in NE Albemarle.

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Technology is doing something transit planners have been unable to do for decades – get people out of their cars. Telecommuters, people working from home, now outnumber mass transit commuters in 27 of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas, according to a new study by Reason Foundation. The summary of the report is here (PDF).

From a housing market point of view, more telecommuters means all of the above including more intellectual capital in the region, higher salaries and a potentially more stable local economy.  Heck, even the PEC supports telecommuting: And, he said, state officials should pass transit and telecommuting tax credits. ‘If we pass those tax credits in this session, you will immediately see traffic improvements,’ Miller said. ‘I guarantee it.’”

The localities that host the telecommuters benefit greatly:

Based on research from other private sector and public organization telecommuting experience, benefits to the employee are likely to include increased job satisfaction, reduced commuting time and transportation costs, diminished stress, improved quality of life, and improved family functioning. Societal contributions include environmental and energy conservation, less traffic congestion on area highways, reduced family stress, increased civic involvement in local communities, and improved economic development at local and regional levels.

Where are the negatives? Can this be likened to the argument that consumers should pay local state sales taxes on internet purchases, e.g. Amazon, et. al?

Why did it take governments so long to try and tax these employees?

The Charlottesville area has a high broadband saturation level, there are hotspots everywhere, the discussion of blanketing the area with wireless has been broached … what’s next?

Should our region try to court these telecommuters? Should we follow Nelson’s lead?

Technorati Tags: Central Virginia, charlottesville, transportation

Try this – telecommute+Charlottesville

Recent government studies also underscore telecommuting’s favorable impact on transportation, energy, and environmental goals and the role played by the national information infrastructure (NII) in furthering these outcomes. (source)

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The Free Enterprise Forum’s October Newsletter has been released. As usual, there is a lot of pertinent information. Full text is below.

October 2005
Forum Watch
October  2005

IN THIS ISSUE:

Important Dates
Zoning Issues  
Master Planning
Water Supply
Transportation Policy
Other Land Use
Editorial

Important Dates
 
October 3rd – Greene County Board of Supervisors Candidate Forum – 7:00 pm William Monroe Middle School
October 8th – Charlottesville Neighborhood Design Day 9:00 – 3:00 pm Various locations see article in Master Planning
October 10th – TJPDC MPO Transportation Improvement Program Public Hearing – 5:00 pm 401 E. Water Street
October 10th – Albemarle County Jack Jouett Supervisor Candidate Forum – 7:00 pm Jack Jouett Middle School
October 17th – Albemarle County Rio District Supervisor Candidate Forum – 7:00 pm Woodbrook Elementary School
October 27th – Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority Water Supply Community Outreach meeting – 6:30 Monticello HS
October 31st – Halloween
October 31 – November 4 Places 29 Charrette #2 details to follow soon ACOB
ACOB – Albemarle County Office Building
CCH- Charlottesville City Hall
GCAB – Greene County Administration Building
FCGC – Fluvanna County Government Center

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Transportation Policy

Meadowcreek Parkway – The Free Enterprise Forum released a report indicating the Meadowcreek Parkway Project could be completed prior to the separate federally funded US 250/McIntire Meadowcreek Parkway interchange project.  The full report can be found at http://www.freeenterpriseforum.org/index.cfm/fuseaction/ViewPage/page_id/51?CFID=309539&CFTOKEN=63058528&    Despite this important report, the parkway’s future is not yet certain.  At least one City Councilor still has concerns regarding parkland issues.  This issue may or may not be resolved in the next few months.   

Charlottesville Downtown Mall Crossing – More than 100 Downtown businesses submitted a petition to City Council asking for a replacement traffic crossing on the west end of the downtown mall.  The petition was supported by the Downtown Business Alliance to assist west end businesses that would benefit from increased exposure and access. The Charlottesville Regional Chamber of Commerce has endorsed the concept. Others support the change as it will increase the number of ways drivers can cross the mall.  The downtown advisory Committee will see the plans on October 12th and the issue will go to a Planning Commission public hearing on November 8th.

FY06 Transportation Improvement Program –   The Charlottesville-Albemarle Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) is seeking public comment on the draft Fiscal Year 2006 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP).  The TIP lists federally funded road, transit, bicycle, pedestrian and related transportation projects to be undertaken in the next three years.  The first public hearing on Monday October 10th at 5:00 pm is the first step in a six month process to determine these key transportation projects.  Comments may also be submitted via e-mail to info@tjpdc.org
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Zoning Issues

Albemarle County Neighborhood Model Zoning Text Amendment – With somewhat remarkable speed the NMD Zoning text amendment was considered by the planning commission earlier this month.  The commission did not act on the amendment as they felt the scope (only focusing on the front yard setbacks) was too limited.  The Free Enterprise Forum raised a number of concerns to the commission, which were well received. 
 
Staff has not yet provided a work plan and date determined when the Zoning Text Amendment will come back before the commission.  The Free Enterprise Forum hopes that the next time around the community will have more than 14 days to review the draft document.  Stay Tuned.

Nelson County Zoning – Nelson County Board of Supervisors continue to make slow progress with the revised subdivision ordinance.  Details at http://www.nelsoncounty.com/planning/proposedzoningordinance     
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Water Issues

Community Water Supply – The Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority will have a public outreach meeting on October 27th at 6:30 to discuss the progress of the Community Water Supply project.  The latest report on the water supply project can be found here http://www.rivanna.org/documents/agenda_jul25_2005_doc5d.pdf
 
Mr. Frederick hopes to have the proposed alternative to the Rivanna Board in January and to the Regulators in February 2006.  To see the deadlines and the costs of this project please see the report at http://www.rivanna.org/documents/agenda_jul25_2005_doc6b.pdf
 
The Free Enterprise Forum does not have a preferred option but appreciates that each of the options under consideration is designed to meet the projected 50 year need for water in the community.  If the community come up with a workable solution to the 9.9 million gallon a day projected need and then permit and build it, future generations will be served by this good stewardship.
 
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Master Planning

Charlottesville Neighborhood Design Day – October 8th, 9:00 – 3:00 pm The City of Charlottesville will be hosting a number of neighborhood design meetings throughout the city.  This is the major public participation event in the city’s 2006 Comprehensive Planning process.  Details and locations of the meeting can be found at http://www.charlottesville.org/content/files/2CCD2AF7-2578-49B6-9DA3-C82AB79DD19E.pdf

Fluvanna County  In what may be one of the most overreaching decisions to date, the Free Enterprise Forum has learned that Fluvanna County is requiring Army Corps of Engineers and Virginia Department of Environmental Quality approvals on yield plans (A yield plan is a fictitious development that indicates how many units could be built on a particular parcel by right) submitted to determine density of their required cluster subdivision.    The Free Enterprise Forum believes this is an enormous waste of taxpayer dollars at a time these professionals need to be focused on our hurricane damaged Gulf Coast.

Forcing such approvals on fictitious subdivisions designed in a manner contrary to the county approved cluster plan will only increase prices and further restrict the supply available.  The Current Board of Supervisors does not seem to have great concern regarding housing affordability.  One member recently balked at the potential of regulation increasing housing prices by $10,000 or $15,000 indicating “people will buy it anyway”.

Places 29  – For those watching the process closely, Places 29 is an interesting case study of public participation and how it relates to a planning vision.   An interesting report is posted on the Albemarle County website reflecting the variety of comments that were received at the public input session.  http://www.albemarle.org/upload/images/forms_center/departments/community_development/forms/Places29/places29-wkshp1-statistics.pdf .  The Free Enterprise Forum has reviewed this lengthy report and believes it is an accurate representation of the views expresses at the meeting. 

We are very concerned that the public may not have been loud enough as in the draft vision statement and guiding principles Places 29 states “enhance the connectivity between neighborhoods” clearly at the public meeting many of the public comments focused on adesire for no interconnectivity of neighborhoods and a bypass.  Further we find it interesting that the first sentence of the Vision statement discusses “the preservation of open space… and the natural environment.” If the primary vision is to preserve the open space, is this not in conflict with the county plans to focus development in this area???

A map of the study area can be found here http://www.albemarle.org/upload/images/Forms_Center/Departments/Board_of_Supervisors/Forms/Agenda/2005Files/20050504/Northerndevelopmentattachb.pdf
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Other Land Use

Albemarle County Mountain Overlay Committee – This committee is now idle waiting for staff to draft proposed language for a Mountain Overlay District (MOD) Ordinance.  The glacial pace of the deliberations is draining many of the members.  Based on the current pace of work, The Free Enterprise Forum does not anticipate a work product from this committee until after the first of the year.  For additional details on their current deliberations, please contact neil@freeenterpriseforum.org .

Albemarle County Lighting Zoning Text Amendment The Free Enterprise Forum was successful in getting Albemarle County to agree to review submitted a zoning text amendment to ask Albemarle County to reconsider it’s prohibition of spilled light on pedestrian walkways and right of ways.  The ZTA also asks the county to allow zoning inspectors to use average lumens instead of initial lumens in their inspections. Albemarle County is clearly pushing for a more pedestrian oriented form of development.  The Free Enterprise Forum does not understand the hesitancy to allow light to spill greater than ½ foot candle to the pedestrian right of way.  The Planning Commission will hear this ZTA on September 20th.
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Editorial

Property Rights Matter
By. Neil Williamson, Executive Director, Free Enterprise Forum
 

Property rights are the fundamental building blocks of Liberty. John Locke, who, arguing from Natural Law, claimed all men had a right to Life, Liberty, Health, and Property.   

Yesterday, the Free Enterprise Forum filed a friend of the court brief in the Collins v. Shoppers World Property Rights case.  The brief, responds to a suit brought by the American Civil Liberty Union of Virginia and The Rutherford Institute, seeks to reaffirm the private property rights of commercial real estate owners.

The initial suit concerns Richard C. Collins unsuccessful bid for the Democratic nomination for Virginia House of Delegates.  On May 7th, Collins was distributing campaign literature outside of the Whole Foods store in the Shopper’s World shopping center. After being asked by management several times to cease this activity, the Albemarle County Police Department was contacted. The police also attempted to mediate the situation and asked Collins to leave, he refused.  In the end, Collins was arrested for trespassing. 

The Amicus Curie brief fully supports the right to free speech but contends such a right does not supercede the right of a property owner to control his property.  “The issue in this case is not whether the candidate as the plaintiff has a right to speak out about his candidacy, or the candidacy of others…The issue in this case is not the right to speak, but the location at which he can engage in that speech” according to the brief.
Since the filing, I have heard from many Forum Watch readers on both sides of this issue.  The Free Enterprise Forum stands clearly on the side of property rights.  If we as a community allow the continued erosion of private property rights, we start down a slippery slope away from our ownership society.  Clearly, property owners do not surrender all of their property rights to the public merely because the property is open to the public.
 
The Free Enterprise Forum has taken a stand on this issue contrary to The ACLU, The Rutherford Institute and (as of yesterday) The Thomas Jefferson Center for the Protection of Free Expression.  We do not take this stand lightly.  We clearly believe this issue is much bigger than the one case that brought it forward. 
 
Someone had to stand up for property rights; we did.    
 
Yes, property rights matter.
 
Respectfully submitted,
 
Neil Williamson

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The Free Enterprise Forum  
550 Hillsdale Drive  
Charlottesville, VA 22901  
Phone: (434) 220-0781  
Fax: (434) 817-2836  
www.freeenterpriseforum.org  

Copyright Free Enterprise Forum 2005
This publication is a product of the Free Enterprise Forum.
For more information on the items addressed in this issue or on other topics related to local government in the
Central Virginia region, contact Neil Williamson at Neil@freeenterpriseforum.org or call 434-220-0781.  Those who read the small print are rarely surprised.
 

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Betty just put a property on the market in Nelson – 1 acre, 3BR, 1BA, $89,700. You can see it here.

Technorati Tags: Central Virginia, real estate

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From Nelson’s site –
The master planning process for Lovingston includes the coordination of many projects ˆ nomination for a historic district, the Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission‚s rural transportation study, renovation of the 1809 courthouse, a market analysis of Lovingston that includes the implementation of the recruitment strategies from the 2004 target business study.  Finally, the County is already planning for its 2007 bicentennial celebration along with the Jamestown 2007 commemoration. 
Nelson could be an exciting place, if they can manage the inevitable growth well.

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I’ll read this later, but my guess is that it’s good for real estate, but not necessarily good for residents.

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