Tag Archives: 22932
Looks like Crozet will be getting a hotel … in Old Trail.
If you’re curious, check out the state of the “Major Site Plan Amendment” at Albemarle County’s outstanding County View – Planning Application number is SDP201300011
This is an interesting development … Old Trail has been in a bit of flux for the past several months after new management took over, and it’s been quite challenging to advise buyer clients as to what the future of Old Trail is going to be … other than “it’s going to be a lot more dense, a lot busier, and they’ve no plans to address traffic (to be fair, the County doesn’t have any plans for traffic – here or anywhere)”. I don’t mean that to be a negative, but an honest statement … Old Trail is an outstanding neighborhood – one of the most walkable and popular neighborhoods in the region, but having a clear, defined plan would be helpful – both to new residents and existing ones.
It seems that their plans are taking shape.
Charlottesville (and the urban ring in Albemarle County) is poised to have a lot more hotels … but this is the first one in Crozet, and is a much-needed hotel. With the number of vineyards hosting weddings, tourists coming to town to hike and visit the many breweries in Crozet and Nelson County, I’m betting a 43 room hotel, assuming it’s a nice boutiquey thing, will do extremely well.
A boutique hotel had been planned/discussed for the Barnes Lumberyard, but after the bank bought the lumberyard back at foreclosure, I’m betting the only hotel Crozet sees is the one in Old Trail.
I’m working on figuring out a timeline for the site plan review, who’s building it and other details. But for now, I’m off to see a client about a house.
PROJECT: SDP2013-011 Old Trail Village Block 2B – Major Site Plan Amendment
PROPOSED: Request for major site plan amendment approval for a four story, 43 room hotel with a 1,000 square foot restaurant and associated parking.
LOCATION: At the corner of the intersection of Golf Drive and Claremont Lane, near The Lodge at Old Trail.
I’m still working my way through the new report produced by Advocates for a Sustainable Population (ASAP) in which they quantify the costs of growth (it’s a lot) and describe how adequately growth pays for itself (it doesn’t).
Growth is expensive, and costly – environmental, quality of life, general change – but what are the solutions? Other than more taxes, (a local income tax? Seriously?) specific solutions aren’t proposed. What exactly is an “informed population polic(y)”?
Keep in mind that this is the group that wants to limit populations (of Charlottesville and Albemarle).
You’ve heard of how Charlottesville used to be a (relatively) well-kept secret, and how as soon as someone moved here they’d want to close to the gates and keep others from moving in? The author of the study fits that mold; he moved here in 2007.
Personally, I’ve struggled with the growth of my hometown* for years and my internal struggles haven’t abated. Intelligent implementation of building, infrastructure, etc is crucial, but these are things that seemingly local (and state, and national) governments fail at implementing every day. What are the solution? I don’t know, but a cap on population seems short-sighted and more difficult to implement than building the Meadowcreek Parkway.
If you’re short on time, read ASAP’s 5 page Executive summary.
“Will I fit in” this neighborhood? – I’ve mentioned this twice in the past two years – once this year and once last year (and probably a time or two before in the past nearly eight years of writing here). Enter Sitegeist – a new app from the Sunlight Foundation.
What is it? Just a lot of what buyers are interested in when evaluating where to live (particularly when relocating to a new location). Now, in addition to telling buyer clients that I can’t tell them if there are kids in a neighborhood, that they should visit a location multiple times at various times before making an offer … download Sitegeist.
I’m going to be testing the app over the next few days to verify its accuracy. After a few initial tests it seems pretty accurate – albeit a bit broad – it doesn’t seem to (at least in Crozet) pull neighborhood data, but zip code. (so far in my test)
From their site:
Sitegeist is a mobile application that helps you to learn more about your surroundings in seconds. Drawing on publicly available information, the app presents solid data in a simple at-a-glance format to help you tap into the pulse of your location. From demographics about people and housing to the latest popular spots or weather, Sitegeist presents localized information visually so you can get back to enjoying the neighborhood. The application draws on free APIs such as the U.S. Census, Yelp! and others to showcase what’s possible with access to data.
Some of the data you’ll learn about a location includes:
• Age Distribution
• Political Contributions
• Average Rent
• Popular Local Spots
• Recommended Restaurants
• How People Commute
• Record Temperatures
• Housing Units Over Time
Update 3 January 2012: I asked them on Facebook:
“How localized is the data? Zip code? Is there a way to specify a radius?”
Average rent is data collected by the US Census and is based on 2010 data for each census tract.
Each of the various data sources we use have slightly different geographic areas:
- Census uses census tracts
- Political contributions use ZIP codes
- Everything else is based on a relevant geographic radius from the current location
We wanted to simplify the user experience by not bombarding folks with a bunch of geo errata, but this is something we’ve heard from a lot of people. We’ll be looking into ways to provide this information in a uncluttered, easy to understand way.
Thanks for your feedback and for using Sitegeist!
So … it’s good for very general information, but notosmuch for neighborhood information. Continue reading
One of the first posts written here was about redistricting schools in Albemarle County; sadly I hadn’t yet mastered the art of proper out-linking, so the stories to which I pointed are mostly dead. Today’s story by Aaron Richardson in the Daily Progress * succinctly describes the current state of some Albemarle County schools: “School redistricting is a headache for everyone, yet Albemarle County is at it again, considering a shuffle for a second time in as many years.”
High-quality schools are one of the more-cited reasons my buyer clients use when choosing to move to the Charlottesville – Albemarle area. I hope this acclaim is justified and continues to be the case.
In talking to a potential incoming client last week, we naturally discussed Albemarle County schools as part of a wider ranging conversation about whether this is the right place for his family. He’s looking for a rural property preferably, but also wants his kids to go to elementary school … and prefers to have a reasonable-length bus ride. How does one define “reasonable-length” in this context?
There really is not much to add to the Albemarle County Schools redistricting conversation than this:
- Read this from last year – Albemarle County Schools’ Populations Are Growing. Unexpectedly. ?!
- If you want 100% certainty that your kids will go to X school, that school better be private.
- Get involved in the process and the conversation. Schools matter, to our kids’ lives, our lives, our property values …
- Always, always, always check your school district before you buy a home in Albemarle (or anywhere, really)
Some stories reflecting the ongoing uncertainty regarding some schools in Albemarle County:
Parents and neighbors in southern Albemarle County are getting more information about a plan to possibly shut down Yancey Elementary School in Esmont. NBC 29 – August 1 2012
- Scottsville tells its supervisor it feels like ‘the redheaded stepchild‘ – Daily Progress – July 26 2012
One thing is true, the Meriwether Lewis parents are perhaps the best organized and mobilized parents in the community. For those in the Crozet district, I’d love to hear what the School Board representative, Barbara Massie Mouly, thinks about this; I haven’t seen word one from her in the press or any kind of outreach to the public.
* I’m glad to consistency in reporting from the Daily Progress; Aaron Richardson also wrote about redistricting last year. Having consistent knowledge is crucial when knowing about and reporting on local issues.
PS – I’m working on a story about growth areas in Albemarle County and their impact on livability and certainly of lifestyle.
Did you know there’s a movement within Crozet (with help/leadership/guidance from Albemarle County) building trails throughout Crozet? My little one and I walked a section of them on Saturday and were a bit amazed at how great the trails were and by how quickly we were able to get between the Westhall neighborhood and the back of Foothills Crossing … and likely Western Ridge, too.
Naturally, I took a few photos … you’ll see a bunch of nature, the Crozet Trails Crew (if you join them, bring clippers … trails always need some tending), Dan Mahon, Jessica Mauzy – the volunteer coordinator of the Crozet Trails Crew … and my daughter, enjoying the walk.
I’m going to be running numbers next week – give some time for realtors to enter the closings in the Charlottesville MLS and for the delayed (there are so many*) closings to finally close.
This is just a primer for what is likely to be a long and comprehensive post next week.
Contracts written 5/1/11 – 6/28/11:
Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 213
Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 70
Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 51
Contracts written 5/1/12 – 6/28/12:
Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 255 (up 16%)
Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 70
Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 32 (down 37%)
Looking at the above data, a quick conclusion could be reached that more buyers are shifting towards purchasing single family homes as home prices have dropped. Next week, I’ll separate the City from the County, product mixes, and the rest of the Charlottesville MSA.
These numbers are likely representative, but not an entirely accurate picture of the Charlottesville real estate market because most closings tend to happen at the end of the month … come back next week.
Closed sales 5/1/11 – 6/28/11:
Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 230
Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 74
Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 41
Closed sales 5/1/12 – 6/28/12:
Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 229
Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 60
Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 36
The housing recovery in Charlottesville (and presumably everywhere, but knowing this market is hard enough) is kind of like pornography.
I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["hard-core pornography"]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that. [Emphasis added.]
How will the “recovery” be defined? Is now the time to buy? (or sell?)
First, we’ll know by hindsight. When we have the luxury and the benefit of 12 to 24 months of looking back, we’ll be able to tell.
Transactions – volume of transactions – what is normal volume of sales transactions in the Charlottesville MSA? I don’t know; homeownership rates are declining. Last year, 1755 single family homes sold in the Charlottesville MSA (including Louisa). In 2002, 2479 single family homes sold. I’d put the “sustainable” rate of single family home sales somewhere in between those two numbers.
Price – stability or appreciation showing themselves
Foreclosures and short sales – fewer than today to none.
Shadow inventory – known and dispensed with; no longer a question of uncertainty.
So … is the housing market in Charlottesville recovering?
Calculated Risk says:
The debate is now about the strength of the recovery, not whether there is a recovery. My view is housing will remain sluggish for some time, and I expect 2012 to be another historically weak year, but better than 2011.
Consider this snapshot, from which I’m trying to :
In Charlottesville and Albemarle:
- 107 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2011. 64 of those were single family. 23 were attached.
- 144 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2012 – a 26% increase! – 92 (30% more) were single family. 23 were attached.
In the Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson):
- 156 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2011. 109 (70%) were single family.
- 186 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2012. 132 (71%) of those were single family.
That sure looks like we’re on the path to recovery, right?
In the MSA in the above timeframe, 22 of those contracts in 2011 were either short sales or foreclosures (6 & 16, respectively). In 2012, 19 of those were short sales or foreclosures (8 & 11, respectively). “A 14% decline in distressed contracts!” surely is a better headline than “3“, right?
It’s too early to tell with respect to foreclosures/short sales/distressed sales
My personal favorite:
“When will U.S. house prices recover? Likely never. But that’s no reason not to buy.” and believe it or not, the article reaches some salient conclusions, echoed by many if not most of my recent buyer clients’ decisions -
That’s why prospective buyers should stop focusing on the vague hope that house prices will jump from here and focus instead on the functional value houses provide for the money. In most markets, they provide enough of that to make buying a good deal.