Tag Archives: jim-duncan
I have long told my daughters to question everything and never accept at face value what they're told. Same goes for real estate data.
What's the list to sales price ratio for homes in Charlottesville?
It's a good question.
The list to sale ratio is a great number to know - whether you're buying a home, selling a home (or advising buyers or sellers). This ratio is a solid indicator the movement of the market, whether sellers are pricing well and correctly and whether buyers are paying close to asking price. Unfortunately, at its aggregate, it's a garbage number. If you're trying to use this data point as you try to figure out the market - ask questions. Always.
I randomly picked 10 sold homes from the Charlottesville MSA across the price ranges from $100k to one million. (I did this last in 2010 in which I chose 6 homes â€¦ the results were the same.
- No foreclosures or short sales
- Sold in September 2013
- No new construction
- Determining Days on Market was a challenge as well. Some of the homes I selected were on the market for less than 30 days while I made an editorial
Take the below for example. The "Original List Price" for this listing was $439,000. The actual original listing price was $510,000 - when the home was listed previously with another firm.
- Taking the top level analysis from the MLS yields: the list to sales price ratio was 94.9% of asking price.
- Running the numbers manually puts the ratio more in the 88% range. (if you were to include the listing prices from the original list date ~ 4 years ago â€¦)
- The real, actual list to sales price ratio for the randomly-selected homes - just over 80%.
This story is neither scientific or necessarily representative of what the market-wide list to sale price ratio may be. This is merely a reminder to question. Everything.
I am Jim Duncan. The Realtor. The soccer player and coach. Partner at Nest Realty in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Friends who have known me for a long time call me Jimmy.
I'm glad I have a blog and doubly glad I own it.
I am not the representative from Tennessee referenced in this tweet:
If you're feeling like the past month of real estate data releases hasn't satiated your need for real estate information and analysis, you're invited to listen to Matt Hodges and me this Sunday morning at 11am on WNRN radio. Whenever we do this, it's a lot of fun - talking for an hour about real estate, mortgages, the market and often times quite a bit more generally leads to a useful and informative conversation.
If you're local, tune in to 91.9. If you're not local (or don't have a radio) the interwebs have you covered.
We tend to prep for four hours' worth of radio, talk for about and hour, and get through 20% of what we have available. Live radio is always a bit nerve-wracking as the conversation is largely unscripted, but the resulting hour podcast is something that:
1) Usually generates inspiration for at least five stories
2) I tend to refer to frequently as I typically learn something from all of the prepping and resulting conversation.
So â€¦ in prepping for the show, we're tentatively planning on talking about:
- The Charlottesville real estate market (naturally) - how it's doing, how it might do in 2013
- When buyers and sellers should start their respective processes. (now)
- Real estate assessments (they're coming out very soon) and their impact on actual market value
- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's recent rules (800 pages of them) and their potential impact on the market.
- Qualified Residential Mortgages (see above)
- New construction in Charlottesville
- Shadow inventory
- Redfields' buying open space
- More quality inventory
Suggestions welcome.After some more thought, I 'm thinking we might talk about the coming Wegmans and Fresh Markets, energy efficiency in homes, realtor productivity â€¦ one of the best parts of these shows are the recap posts I write that afternoon or next morning, replete with links, research, supporting information and more.
Tune into Coy Barefoot’s Charlottesville – Right Now! on WINA from five to five thirty today as I and one of my Nest Partners, Keith Davis, discuss the Charlottesville real estate market.
Topics we may cover –
- Where the Charlottesville real estate market is right now.
- Where the market may be going.
- New Construction
- Why and how now may be a great time to buy (for goodness sake, it’s not a great time to buy for everyone – it never is or was)
- The vacancy rate in the Charlottesville MSA for homes currently on… Continue reading...
Nest is about to make a huge announcement. A *really* huge announcement. Stay tuned.
And it is a big one. But …
Here’s the challenge:
We need to define how and why this matters to potential buyers and sellers in Charlottesville and Albemarle and Central Virginia, because it absolutely does matter. Realtors will get it, but I and we are more concerned about how we can convey the how and why to our existing and potential clients.
We know it matters, we can… Continue reading...