Tag Archives: Market statistics
- Days on Market (an inherently flawed data point) are down in Charlottesville, Albemarle and Fluvanna.
- Average Sales prices are down (not surprising)
- Total sales across the MSA are down (not surprising)
- More buyers are looking to be closer in/closer to stuff
- Good properties are selling and selling quickly
- Interest rates remain low – a good thing for buyers.
- I think we may have pulled the spring market forward a bit; the early spring may have pulled transactions into the earlier months of the year.
Dead simple Takeaways:
- Buyers: do your due diligence, don’t let emotion enter the equation and make sound, rationale decisions with the intent of holding the property for at least five to seven years
- Sellers: do your due diligence and realize that buyers most often don’t have to buy, but want to buy – it’s your job to make them want to buy your house. This means: price, presentation, perfection … and a great location and setting.
The housing recovery in Charlottesville (and presumably everywhere, but knowing this market is hard enough) is kind of like pornography.
I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["hard-core pornography"]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that. [Emphasis added.]
How will the “recovery” be defined? Is now the time to buy? (or sell?)
First, we’ll know by hindsight. When we have the luxury and the benefit of 12 to 24 months of looking back, we’ll be able to tell.
Transactions – volume of transactions – what is normal volume of sales transactions in the Charlottesville MSA? I don’t know; homeownership rates are declining. Last year, 1755 single family homes sold in the Charlottesville MSA (including Louisa). In 2002, 2479 single family homes sold. I’d put the “sustainable” rate of single family home sales somewhere in between those two numbers.
Price – stability or appreciation showing themselves
Foreclosures and short sales – fewer than today to none.
Shadow inventory – known and dispensed with; no longer a question of uncertainty.
So … is the housing market in Charlottesville recovering?
Calculated Risk says:
The debate is now about the strength of the recovery, not whether there is a recovery. My view is housing will remain sluggish for some time, and I expect 2012 to be another historically weak year, but better than 2011.
Consider this snapshot, from which I’m trying to :
In Charlottesville and Albemarle:
- 107 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2011. 64 of those were single family. 23 were attached.
- 144 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2012 – a 26% increase! – 92 (30% more) were single family. 23 were attached.
In the Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson):
- 156 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2011. 109 (70%) were single family.
- 186 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2012. 132 (71%) of those were single family.
That sure looks like we’re on the path to recovery, right?
In the MSA in the above timeframe, 22 of those contracts in 2011 were either short sales or foreclosures (6 & 16, respectively). In 2012, 19 of those were short sales or foreclosures (8 & 11, respectively). “A 14% decline in distressed contracts!” surely is a better headline than “3“, right?
It’s too early to tell with respect to foreclosures/short sales/distressed sales
My personal favorite:
“When will U.S. house prices recover? Likely never. But that’s no reason not to buy.” and believe it or not, the article reaches some salient conclusions, echoed by many if not most of my recent buyer clients’ decisions -
That’s why prospective buyers should stop focusing on the vague hope that house prices will jump from here and focus instead on the functional value houses provide for the money. In most markets, they provide enough of that to make buying a good deal.
I’ve tracked the housing vacancy rate for homes actively on the market in the Charlottesville MSA irregularly over the past several years; it’s an indicator as to the health of the housing market. More occupied homes = a healthier market.
The last time I checked, the percent of homes on the market in the Charlottesville MLS that showed as being “vacant” in the showing instructions was about 22%. In 2008, that percentage was about 33%. In 2007, that percentage was 36%!
Right now, there are:
- 2271 residential properties marked as “active” in the MLS
- 525 … Continue reading…
As always, pay attention to the segment or segments that affect you. There is no “the market is up” or “the market is down.” Condos in the City of Charlottesville near the Downtown Mall are different than single family homes in Greene County – different trends, different factors affecting them, different economic engines and hubs, different schools, different property taxes … you get the picture.
I’ll be adding to this post this evening but wanted to get this out before my afternoon appointment. (priorities, you know?)
Nest Realty’s First Quarter 2012 market report (download the pdf)
I’ve said it before:
and here’s a taste of how conflicted my news feed and streams are –
I’ve been saying this to clients for the past couple of days; in light of today’s Case Shiller report I thought I’d share what I’m seeing:
Contracts are up in the Charlottesville area – significantly. Prices are down, inventory is down, sales are up. There is some positivity in the market; multiple offers, while not “the norm” are definitely common.
As I’ve said to clients: properties that are priced well*, in great condition, and in great locations tend to be selling well.
I’m still trying to make time to run a few different numbers – breakdown of property type, etc. I’m doing these for my clients on property-specific instances frequently) but haven’t been able to do it for here …
* Priced well is part science, part art, part data analytics and part luck, sometimes not in equal proportions. Continue reading
One of the best parts of this Housing Prospects 50 States Release March 12 2012
One of the things I said in the Newsplex story is that any market analysis that is broader than a street or neighborhood is too broad to make an informed and educated decision.
Excerpting from the report won’t do it justice; if you’re interested, download the pdf and read it.
The one quibble I would make is that depending on Zillow for local analysis with respect to the Charlottesville MSA is perhaps not the best idea; but from a macro perspective, they’re worthwhile.
Perhaps the best part of the report is this – William Lucy states the need for local analysis and local perspectives. The housing system may be broken, but the solution is not a one-size-fits-all Continue reading
As we know, national data doesn’t matter so much.
So, I looked at the homes put under contract in Charlottesville and Albemarle for the past few months.
But … keep in mind that things are so very mixed. I’ve been showing homes in the $550k – $800k range for the past few days. Of the past five properties we’ve seen:
- One is a short sale
- One is a foreclosure
- Three are regular sales
* Data from the Charlottesville MLS
** “Right Now” is 27 February around 10:30. From Open Space. I’ll update the chart after February.
Updated on 3 March. Contracts in February 2012 in Charlottesville and Albemarle are up just over 68%. Continue reading