Charlottesville-Albemarle Real Estate Market Shifting – October 2026

This is a different blog post than usual as it’s a recounting of a recent conversation with a client, supplemented by market data. A client called me this week and asked, “What’s going on in the Charlottesville – Albemarle market?“

If you have questions about any of this, please please ask me. I love talking about real estate, and educating and helping you understand what’s happening in our market.

As I started to answer, I started taking notes on the points I was touching on; that was the framework. This is the fleshed-out and sourced version with hard numbers and data.

The thing that I hold top of mind in all things with my clients — and I tell each of them at one point or another — is that at the end of the day, the decisions that my clients make will necessarily affect the rest of their lives, as well as their kids’ and grandkids’ lives. That’s an enormous weight and responsibility, for all of us.

My goal with this post and every interaction I have with my clients is to remember and recognize the gravity of what we do, and to do so with listening, empathy, and understanding. This stuff matters, and it’s rarely only about price; we’re in this together.

Market Conditions: Albemarle County & Charlottesville City

• Charlottesville and Albemarle are moving toward a balanced market. Homes are selling at 98.7% of list price on the median, and 17% sold above list (30% in 2024), and there are a few bidding wars but not none. Note though that those numbers are showing closed prices for contract written a couple months ago. Demand is reasonable for this time of year: contracts in August and September were down 4% from last year.
• Inventory is at its highest level since 2019, and it has caught a lot of agents and sellers off guard (more on this below). It may look like this happened quickly, but resale inventory has climbed every month since January, from 215 to 533. Part of this is typical seasonal increase in inventory, and part is not. Your micro-market will vary. Rates jumping in September made it worse. I remember the last time rates spiked; the market seized until people adjusted. Breathing is essential.
  
  • More homes came on the market this September than in any September since 2007.
  • Active resales on 9/30 was 533. That is the highest since 2019, when it was 685 (2018 was 694). The last month-end this high was April 2020, at 579. Including new construction, it is 714 versus 920 in 2019.
  • New listings: September 2026 had 196 new resale listings, excluding comp-only records. That is the most of any September, with records going to 2005. The runners-up are 2006 (185) and 2019 (174). Excluding relists, it is 159 versus 122 last year.
  • September 2026 had 232 new resale listings, excluding comp-only records. Only 2006 (265) and 2007 (233) were higher, and 2019 had 225. Excluding relists, it is 179 versus 153 last year.
    Albemarle is driving this. City inventory is flat from last year (106 versus 104), and City homes that sell still go fast, with a median of 14 days to contract versus 29 across both.
• Rates ~7.5% are adding significant pressure to the market.

Look at the homes that did sell in August and September. Forty percent cut their price before they found a buyer. That was 35% last year and 28% in 2024. Forty-eight percent took more than 30 days to go under contract, up from 44% last year and 36% in 2024. Of the homes on the market today, 45% have already reduced their price, and the median home has been listed 51 days. Prices haven’t fallen year over year; the median sale price is $524,000 versus $505,000. The adjustment shows up in time and in cuts. Meanwhile, 33% of homes still went under contract within 10 days. The market is bifurcated, and the how you price decides which side you land on.

Seller vs. Buyer Psychology

• Sellers take 5-13 months to recognize a market shift
• Buyers take 12 to 14 seconds to see the market differences.
• Buyers tracking the market closely; sellers still anchored to prices from 15 months ago.
  • I have written about this before — sellers often take a market cycle to adjust to the new reality; what you thought you could sell your house for is less than you thought and that affects each side differently. Sellers may have to accept less, and buyers may be able to offer less.
• ResiClub newsletter used the word “capitulating” in a recent headline. I’ve not seen that word used in reference to the real estate market in quite some time, and in that context he’s referencing national builders with the ability to take hits.
  • For the people I represent – buyers and sellers – I’d be inclined to frame the market adjustment less as capitulation and more as recognizing and accepting that the market is different than you might have expected. This is why I show my work with my clients – when doing my analyses, I show the numbers – price, dates, days on market, etc – the data speaks (even if some realtors try to game the MLS, we all know the true numbers)

I can’t find the story I wrote about the value of being done, but I know I’ve written it!

• Sometimes, for a seller, it’s worth $X to be able to close a chapter and open another one — that might mean ratifying a contract for less than you wanted initially.
• And on the other side, for a buyer, it might be worth $X to move into your next chapter of life, walk the dog to the dog park, enroll the kids in school, ride a bike to work (or work from home in your new home office)

On-the-Ground Signals

• Photographer (3-4 years in market) noting a first: shooting listings where the house across the street is still unsold
• Possible (hopeful? I know, hope is not a strategy) near-term improvement if geopolitical instability (Strait of Hormuz) resolves; fuel prices and instability currently driving markets
• I’ve brought three new listings on the market in the past week; I’m adjusting my and my clients’ expectations.

Regarding Being Taken By Surprise

This is a market (and always has been) that requires studying, attention, and dedication.

I wrote in March of last year

A friend and client texted:

Any major cracks in the local market yet or just still plugging along? No rush; only curious about your thoughts.

Major Cracks? No. Some Cracks? Yes.

We had a meeting recently at Nest and I asked what people were seeing and hearing from their clients. I have my and my clients’ perspectives, but I like to have a wider scope from fellow professionals.

There is a lot of underlying fear in the market that surfaces as people come closer to major life decisions. The tariffs and the chaos that are being willfully inflicted on us from the federal level are damaging buyer and seller psyches. In a word, uncertainty is bad. People and markets crave certainty.

But.

People are still buying and selling homes. Many homes are still going under contract in the first weekend, with multiple offers. Same as I wrote in June of 2024. People continue to get married, pregnant, divorced, kids grow up and (sometimes?) leave home, job transfers — life happens and goes on.

Speculations

(these are snips from another conversation with a client; I used Granola to record myself to take notes)

• Things are just going to slow down for 18 to 24 months.
• You’re likely to see more sellers choose to stay as so many have a) no mortgage b) fixed mortgages under 5%, c) have no compelling reason to move, and d) could afford to sell, but not necessarily afford to buy.
  • I think that that’s likely to keep inventory at lower levels. (I feel less confident in this guess)
  • No mortgage: 39.4% — this is based on the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, 5-year estimate for 2020–2024. It counts owner-occupied homes, not people, and it was 34.4% a decade earlier. 60.6% of owner-occupied homes have a mortgage. (January 2026)
  • About 50.6% of American homeowners have fixed rate mortgages under 4%, as noted on Wolfstreet. (March 2026)
• Prices maybe not appreciating 4 to 7%, but maybe 0 to 2%
• The house … $1.3 million today could be $1.35 million in 2 years. Or it could be $1.1 million.