The data keeps coming – – 1010 properties have sold so far this year**Data is of the weekend of 8 July, 2007*Since I started this story this past weekend, the monthly sales numbers have changed slightly, so I’ll say that the margin of error (right now) is +-5 to 10.*Of the 212 properties under 200K that sold between 1 January and 30 June 2007, 115 were condos – just over 50%. (there are 118 on the market right now)*Hat tip to Ardell for the nifty way to show the data.
Browsing Category Market statistics
A glut of condos in Charlottesville
However, it’s hard to look at these numbers any other way.First – generally, new condo developments are not subject to the impact of the surge in inventory caused by the condo conversions. I’d show this data, but not a high enough percentage of Realtors mark their properties as “new” for me to be able to trust the output. Garbage in, Garbage out.In Charlottesville/Albemarle, consider these numbers -There are currently 223 active condos on the market.There are 136 condos under contract.167 condos have sold so far this year.138 condos are currently on the market under $225k.131 condos under $225k have sold this year.*191 condos in Charlottesville/Albemarle have expired or have been withdrawn from the market this year; I assume that most of these have been re-listed.Breaking the numbers down further by each individual development shows the situation even more dramatically. If I were to tell the sellers in these developments that everything is “fine;” I’d look like either a liar or a fool.Why some Charlottesville condos are riskyAre condos a good investment?
Quick market update for Charlottesville
The first-half market report for the Charlottesville region will be released in seven days. Leading up to the report’s release, I’ll be posting my brief market reports this week.About 36% of the active listings in Charlottesville/Albemarle are priced between $280k and $500k.The median price for all listings in Charlottesville/Albemarle is $369k. Median price for sold listings is $299k.Courtesy of my favorite new statistical report. (PDF) Look at the graphs for quick insight into where the bulk the market activity is.
Tracking real estate stocks – Google Finance Style
Only two of these national homebuilders have presence in the Greater Charlottesville real estate market, Ryan Homes (NVR) and K Hovavian (HOV), while Toll (TOL) have been rumored to be poised to make a move in the near future.Everyone knows that business cycles oscillate from boom to bust every so many years, and real estate is not unique in this regard…. It’s not just a matter of saying “real estate stocks are down” — it’s more that they’re down, in a roughly correlated manner, over a meaningful common time period.Since 31 December, 2004:Since 2003:What’s next?… More on this in next week’s post about the first year’s market stats.We all know that what goes up must come down; will that which goes down come back up? I suspect so.For an even more interesting graphical display, as well as a cogent analysis, this time one of the subprime market, check out Fortius One’s “Exploring a Slice of Subprime Space” post.
Home Sales down in Charlottesville – expanded
I was going to wait until mid-June to run the numbers for the numbers for the Charlottesville-area real estate market, but it’s like someone put out a press release or something, as the same story is now seen across the local Charlottesville media…. And sales so far this year are down more than 7 percent when compared with the first five months of 2006.That drop is better than the statewide trend. Across Virginia, May sales were down by 16 percent and year-to-date sales were down more than 10 percent.Two notes -1) Looking solely at Year over Year numbers conveys a sense of liquidity about the real estate market – something that was never intended to be. Housing has always had intrinsic value as well – much more so than stocks or bonds.2) I broke condos out of the below numbers because the condo segment of the market has always been argued as providing an affordable sustainability to the market.In Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa and Nelson, May 2007 – 339 homes sold, 40 of which were condos.May 2006 – 414 homes sold, 67 of which were condos.May 2005 – 409 homes sold, 41 of which were condos.May 2004 – 355 homes sold, 25 of which were condos.
Real estate Sunday in the Daily Progress – a deeper look at the housing numbers
The DP, Charlottesville’s biggest daily newspaper, has quite the real estate focus today:Prices put dream of homeownership out of reachFlight from high prices costs in road woesHigh housing prices hit city in rankingsHousing boom benefits but wages still lag(All stories on one page)A point of clarification and expansion referencing this (I don’t know why I am taking on the ombudsman role today):In response to the affordable housing issue, Phillips said, the real estate industry has built more moderately priced condominiums and town-houses…. Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna and Greene, there are 476 condos or attached properties active on the market, 329 of which are priced under $300k, 151 are under $200k and 38 are under $150k. Breaking the numbers down a step further to what I believe is a reasonable requirement for many, if not most:Of all attached/condo properties on the market, with at least three bedrooms:Under $150k: 0Under $200k: 1Under $250k: 2Under $300k: 6Another clarification:The region’s homes-for-sale inventory is also increasing, giving buyers more choices and slightly lower prices. There are currently 3,443 active listings in the region, representing a three-fold increase over three years ago.In Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson, there are actually 2,581 properties on the market.
FSBOs in Charlottesville?
But, a couple of readers emailed me the article, so I feel obligated to comment (and I am grateful for that obligation – thank you for reading)The study (pdf) is less a story of how much more unrepresented sellers sell their homes for than those who choose to hire a Realtor, and more about the effects of a viable alternative to the MLS, which is currently the best way to market a home.We focus on the city of Madison, Wisconsin, where a single web site (fsbomadison.com) has become the dominant for-sale-by-owner platform.A few thoughts:1…. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) argues that Realtors provide valuable help with setting the listing price, preparing the house, checking potential buyers’ qualifications, showing the house, bargaining the terms of the deal, and handling the paperwork.5…. Maybe the best “by owner” site in Charlottesville is c-villebyowner, but their market share remains infinitesimal.In the Charlottesville area real estate market, some neighborhoods are more likely to be successful for those who choose to represent themselves in the sale of their homes – those that are fairly cookie-cutter and high-traffic neighborhoods may be better candidates than those that are not, but why would someone want to limit the number of people to whom they market their most valuable asset? What about the pictures?By the way, the study is outdated.The study found, however, that homes listed with agents sold more quickly — with a 25 percent probability of selling within 60 days versus a 16 percent probability for FSBO-advertised homes.The average days on market in the Charlottesville area, right now, is trending between 74 and 106 days.