Jim’s Note – April 2025

in Monthly Notes archives on

Reasons Why, A Different Market Wrap Up, Communication Matters

This month it’s long. And it’s not AI.

I write Jim’s Note every month on Substack, and post here for posterity. And, it’s lot easier to search my site than is Substack.

Interested in getting my note every month? A lot of my clients – past, present, future – read and enjoy it.

This month it’s long. And it’s not AI.

 

How’s the market? Should I buy or sell right now?

“It depends” is always the start of my answer.

Should you buy?

  • Maybe. If your horizon is less than three years, please strongly consider renting instead of buying.
  • Maybe. If you have the life and financial confidence that you’re going to be stationary for at least 5 to 7 years, I think considering a purchase can be a great decision.
  • If you’re buying what you anticipate being the last house, and you have the confidence your life has the stability or that your kids — let’s face it, a lot of people move to be close to the grandkids — are going to stay, buying can absolutely be a good decision, and “overpaying” is not the worst thing to do if it secures your home for the foreseeable future.

The first quarter in Charlottesville + Albemarle

When do homes come on the market? This is from 2023, and it’s still relevant.

 

2025 vs 2024: a quick look

For Charlottesville + Albemarle, resales, single family + attached, from 1/1/24 – 4/11/24 and 1/1/25 – 4/11/25:

Contracts: 657 in 2024, 636 in 2025

Days on market of 7 days or less: 340 in 2024, 305 in 2025

Days on market of 8-30 days: 137 and 167 respectively.

New listings: 449 and 562. The 562 is notable. 113 more listings than the previous year to date is an important number.

Two things stand out —

  • 113 more listings in the first four-ish months of the year is a sign that the lock-in effect is easing, people need to sell, and price matters. If you want to sell, price a bit lower than you might have thought or liked.
  • If you’re buying, 74% of homes went under contract in 30 days or less so far in 2025. Representing my buyers, I want us to get to the point where, as soon as they get the notification on their phone, they decide quickly if they want to see the house, after which they need to again decide quickly if they want to wait or make an offer.

The market feels like it is slowing; I do think that a lot of the velocity we are seeing is driven by continued pent-up demand and people – buyers, sellers, agents – operating off of last year’s market thinking.

What we have here, in part, is Toxic Uncertainty, which is affecting all of us and everything.

List-to-sale ratio: broadly vs. one segment

People often ask this question.

Looking at the 237 resale sold properties for 1/1/25 to 4/11/25 in Charlottesville + Albemarle, the average list-to-sale ratio is 98.77% and the median is 100%.

Will you get that, or pay that?

If I had a buyer agent bring me an offer on day 2 for 98.77% of asking, and the sellers were fortunate enough to have three other offers, how do you think that would go for those buyers?

—

For homes sold in 7 days or less, the median list-to-sale ratio is 101.46% and the average is 102.79%.

For homes sold in 45 to 120 days, the median list-to-sale ratio is 95.14% and the average is 93.85%.

A sign of the market shift? I’ve brought back my carrying costs spreadsheet to help my sellers understand that pricing higher might not result in a higher net if they have to carry the house for X days.

Keep in mind that the numbers I pull out here matter less than the numbers we discuss, because the data you and I discuss will be relevant to you.

Next month: a look at new construction in Charlottesville and Albemarle, plus a less-in-demand market segment.

Thanks for reading. Please share with a friend you like.

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Two of the reasons I love what I do

Two stories about recent clients highlight why I do what I . I represented each when buying and again when selling.

I remember sitting on the floor of the attorney’s office, drawing with crayons with my clients’ daughter while my clients signed the closing documents. She was 2 maybe? They were one of my first clients to buy and put their assets into a trust.

I represented them again recently, and everyone was older and in different life stages: She’s 17, her parents are older, and we’re now talking about their parents’ parents. Sadly, most attorneys’ offices don’t have the same spaces. I’d still sit on the floor and color, and maybe get up a little bit slower. 🙂

2. My clients still have the video from when I was walking the lot with their builder 10 years ago. They were out of town, and we were walking the lot and siting the house. They built an amazing home and enjoyed 10 wonderful years there, and expected to be there for longer. We recently sold their home, and they are moving to the next stage and place of life.

Each told me I represented them well when they purchased, they remembered that, and me, and called on me when life called on them.

I think it’s human nature to be appreciative and grateful when you’re remembered, and I am. I’m even more appreciative when my clients call on me after many years to represent them in what is a life-altering/affecting thing. To them, and to all of my clients who trust me – thank you.

 

 

Communication

“Thanks. I see this, and I’m working on it. “

I’m not perfect, but I do make the effort.

Three conversations in two days with three different clients about three different situations, all centered around their frustrations with a lack of communication.

Choosing just one of the conversations: The client would email someone, not hear back for three weeks, and when they did, the response started with excuses like “I’ve been sick,” “I’ve been on vacation,” and my personal favorite, “I’ve been so busy.”

“I’ve been so busy” is not acceptable. Being busy is often a sign of success. Staying busy productive takes enormous skill and effort.

If you send an email and then don’t hear back, the stress level grows. The aggravation grows. And grows. The understanding, the potential for understanding, and the desire to understand diminish. The solution gets harder to achieve.

One of my goals is to have clients feel that they are the only clients I have. I don’t always succeed, but I do try, and I acknowledge that I’m making the effort.

 

 

This is the hardest market I’ve been a part of. Hands down.

Homeownership is not for everyone

It’s not. It’s just not. Those who say that homeownership is the best and only path to stability/wealth/success are either lying, selling, or both.

 

 

Institutional knowledge is important.

Once it’s lost, it’s lost forever. We are seeing this firsthand with the dismantling and destruction of so very much: museums, archives, CDC, FDA, CFPB, et al. But this is not about that.

I recently re-joined my HOA. Please send congratulations and/or condolences. And no, it’s not on my LinkedIn (yet).

We’ve been in this house and neighborhood for nearly 21 years, and the Board sort of … waned. We reconstituted the Board, and have some long-time residents and some new ones on the Board. The first few meetings have been peppered with sharing why and how things were then and how they are now.

Why are our dues what they are?

The biofilters will need to be replaced in 25-30 years and we need to budget for that.

We have biofilters? What are those?

Know and don’t dwell on the history, and keep moving forward. Always forward.

I recently re-joined my HOA. Please send congratulations and/or condolences. And no, it’s not on my LinkedIn (yet).

We’ve been in this house and neighborhood for nearly 21 years, and the Board sort of … waned. We reconstituted the Board, and have some long time residents and some new ones on the Board. The first few meetings have been peppered with sharing why and how things were then and how they are now.

Why are our dues what they are?

The biofilters will need to be replaced in 25-30 years and we need to budget for that.

We have biofilters? What are those?

Know and don’t dwell on the history, and keep moving forward. Always Forward.

 

Riding solo in the rain with darkened bike computer. Just enjoying the ride.

 

Private Equity and the Doctor

I went to a doctor recently.

Over the course of three office visits, I was with the doc for no more than a total of 30 minutes, and that’s probably a high number. He’d been recommended to me, and I’m sure he was a good doctor. I knew something was a bit off when I called his local number and the answering service had not heard of Charlottesville. And then the process was antiseptic, impersonal, and felt 100% transactional.

He had sold to private equity.

I went to a different doc, and she spent nearly an hour talking to me, asking about family history, listening and asking more questions. And we got a path to solutions.

Listening takes time, and is one of the reasons I gravitate towards the percentage fee structure. I don’t want me or my clients watching the clock in 5 or 15 minute intervals. the time it takes to figure out the right path is frequently circuitous and takes more than 45 minutes.

Focus on the why and the how rather than the clock.

The Only Way to Survive a Recession

This is one of the best things I have seen in a long time.

“It’s so much more likely that you’re going to build a community than become a billionaire.“

What I’m Reading

 

What I’m Listening To

 

 

I just really like this picture. Out of focus, going fast on a gravel road, helmet light illuminating

Next month – new construction, return to office and such, Better community with slowing market?

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