Big donations in Albemarle politics

The news came out yesterday regarding the largest donations to local political races.

There surely may have been more critical elections locally, but I can’t remember one.

Financially, one can’t argue that the monetary donations help the candidates - but what is the potential risk for those getting big donations, perception-wise?

In Albemarle, the candidates have raised at least $150,000 - for Board of Supervisors seats, salaries for which area minute fraction of the amount raised. Local politics should not be subject to partisan politics - but they are divided by the type of donors. 

This is true - for the amount of time and effort the Supervisors put in, they’re underpaid.

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October 31, 2007 | Filed Under Albemarle, Politics | 1 Comment 

They might be dropping the Fed Funds rate - so what?

The WSJ’s Development blog has a good Q & A today about the Fed Funds rate.

Whenever the Fed debates dropping the rate, inevitably buyers and sellers will ask me - that will help the market, right?

… mortgage rates actually follow the bond market, not the Fed-funds rate. The interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage tracks the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (at yesterday’s close 4.383%. Track today’s rates here.). Lenders typically set their base mortgage rate around two percentage points higher than the 10-year bond yield.
…So if you want to know the direction of mortgage rates, you need to get a sense of where bond yields are heading

Let’s not discount the psychological impact of buyers and sellers hearing that “rates have dropped.” The perception that “rates are lower” may have a real impact on the local real estate market, whether they’ve dropped or not - particularly because nearly 40% of our active inventory (in Charlottesville/Albemarle) is priced above the $417,000 threshold that indicates “jumbo loan” territory.

That said, rates really aren’t high at all (look at March 1982, or March of 2002).

This Graph from August 2006 says an awful lot
(thanks, Jay for the graph)

Read Noah’s outstanding analysis and commentary on why a recession is the most desirable outcome. Keeping government out of the equation as much as possible should be the goal for all involved.

And, for insight from someone who knows what he’s talking about (rather than my perspective on the periphery) - read Dan’s post today. Better yet, subscribe to his feed.

October 31, 2007 | Filed Under General Real Estate | 7 Comments 

Rumors of Albemarle Place’s demise are greatly exaggerated

While rumors were out as early as June (and probably earlier) that Whole Foods was moving to the K-mart shopping center, but the Daily Progress has an informative article this morning on the status of Albemarle Place saying that things are moving along quite well, thank you.

Following up on the great discussion at Cvillenews about the rumors of the demise of Albemarle Place …

If it were to become a park, there isn’t much surrounding residential density from which to draw pedestrian traffic.


View Larger Map

Does that look pedestrian-friendly to you?

Online, the location looks ideal for “walkability” - 74 out of 100, even. That is, until you actually drive here and see that in crossing Emmet Street one is literally taking one’s life into one’s hands. Life sometimes looks different in real life when compared to the internet.

October 31, 2007 | Filed Under Albemarle, Growth | 3 Comments 

Tuesday links 10-30-2007

Close the UVA library to the public. Please don’t infringe on the virgin ears of students. Damn public.

The library’s first concern should be, not to preserve public openness at all costs, but to preserve a comfortable, welcoming environment to students and faculty. The academic needs of the University community should take priority over the physical urges of the Charlottesville community.

Brad and Lockhart sitting in a tree … The real esate/blogging landscape is changing every day.

Foreclosure maps from the Wall Street Journal

Homegain charges less:

Today, HomeGain announced that, due to current and forecasted real estate market conditions, we have reduced the referral fee for AgentEvaluator to 27% for all regular members and to 22% for our Platinum and Gold Club members. This reduction equates to 10 and 12 percent savings, respectively,for HomeGain real estate agents who close a transaction as a result of a match with a HomeGain consumer.

Most “energy conservation” initiatives fall short because they don’t address dysfunctional human settlement patterns, the root cause of excess consumption.

Ask 500 People. (h/t Mashable)

A driving tour of the Old Trail development in Crozet:

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October 30, 2007 | Filed Under sideblog | Leave a Comment 

Rah Virginia Mil

From the HooK.

… recent report in the Virginian-Pilot finds that UVA has not expelled a single student for anything other than infractions of the school’s vaunted Honor Code in the past five years. The Pilot story, written to explore safety in the wake of the Virginia Tech massacre, compares expulsions at the various state universities. While UVA topped the tally with 115, tiny honor-infused VMI, with 67 expulsions, appears to have the highest rate.

It’s nice to see my alma mater represented well. The honor code at VMI was and is simple:

“a cadet does not lie, cheat, steal, nor tolerate those who do.”

And apparently still enforced regularly.

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October 29, 2007 | Filed Under sideblog | Leave a Comment 

Are you willing to martyr yourself to the industry?

Or - will it ever be as good as it was?

The question led to more questions, and made me think - hard.

Those questions - or similar ones - are likely being asked by many in the real estate industry right now. There are more questions than answers.

The mortgage market is shifting - trimming the proverbial fat in the hopes and expectations that what will be left will be leaner, meaner and more efficient. This is but one of the many ways that Realtors’ production volumes will be impacted - downward.

I’ve noted the following letter before but feel it’s warranted to revisit - This is but one of the reasons for the shift enumerated in this letter (h/t Blown Mortgage), including but not limited to this:

The key reason the Subprime problem exists as it does today has to do with the wanton disassociation of risk inherent in the machine that churns out Subprime loans. Unlike the S&L crisis of the 1980s, the mortgage lenders of today aren’t taking their own balance sheet risk when underwriting loans. These brokers get paid for quantity REGARDLESS of quality. The balance sheet risk is transferred through three entities in less than 90 days from origination. The originator will originate ANYTHING he can sell to a whole loan buyer to pass the hot potato on. Whole loan buyers are simply the aggregators of loans at the Wall St. firms that aggregate, package, tranche, and sell as quickly as they possibly can to the clueless buyer. This transference of risk is the crux of the Subprime situation. Just think about it…if you were a 20-something making mortgage loans in California using someone else’s balance sheet and being paid per loan (with no lookback to performance of the loan), how many dubious loans would you underwrite?

The above is going to change. In this instance, “brokers” could be applied to real estate brokers/agents as well as mortgage brokers. Other people’s money will never not be as easily borrowed for the foreseeable future (as pointed out recently in the comments). What percentage of total buyers over the past five years have fallen into this category? About 20% of all refinancings made in 2005 in the Charlottesville area were considered subprime. Non-scientifically, what will happen to the local market if 20 percent of all buyers are removed from the market?

My prediction is that there will be at least a 15%-20% decline in the Realtor membership next year; (the agent bubble may be bursting) might there be a correlation between the reduction in Realtors and buyers that will lead to equilibrium? (The Minnesota Association of Realtors was slightly ahead of the curve)

We are returning to a traditional real estate market, and we may be in for some significant pain - more than many realize. If so, in which phase are we?

This post spoke to me this weekend -  De-commodification.

You know the phenomenon when a company gets too big and too rich, and the next thing you know, the middle-manager politics take over? Starts sucking the life blood out of the company? The start of inevitable and permanent decline?
…
The best way to offset one’s own commodification is to build one’s own personal “global microbrand“, irrespective one own employer. “Brand You“, as the great Tom Peters called it way back in 1997. A good blog works about as well as anything.

What if we replaced “company” with “industry”?

The real estate industry - and real estate blogs -  may very well be in working their ways through the de-commodification phase of their respective evolutions. Agents already are becoming brands unto themselves - brands that can move from Broker (note to Wharton: “Broker” is not necessarily equivalent to “agent”) - might the very structure of the business be changing? What if … all Realtors were required to be Brokers (this is the case in at least two states).

The world as we know it is changing. The fallout likely will be felt far and wide. When it clears, I expect to be here for a while. (Unless a far better offer comes in)

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October 29, 2007 | Filed Under General Real Estate | 5 Comments 

10 ways to make your home greener

From the Washington Post.

Surveys show that homeowners like the idea of using less energy and resources, but they often balk at the upfront cost, Weissgerber said. “The first thing they say in focus groups we’ve done is, ‘This is expensive.’

“Not everything makes sense financially at this point to all people,” he said. … But, he said, saving energy will be on everyone’s minds as electricity and natural gas grow more expensive.

Making these improvements now will benefit you now as well as when you do eventually sell your house. Buyers are actually budgeting now - and they’re taking utility bills into consideration when making offers.

Here are the Top 10.

I’m trying to find the best companies in the Charlottesville area who do the above-mentioned improvements. If you have a recommendation, please let me know.

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October 29, 2007 | Filed Under Green | 1 Comment 

WP 2.3.1 broke my theme in IE7

The right sidebar is now all the way at the bottom of the page in IE7. Working on a fix. Or … maybe a sign for a new theme?

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October 28, 2007 | Filed Under sideblog | 8 Comments 

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