Category Archives: Market statistics
Homes are selling fairly well in the Charlottesville area. For this post, I was looking less at house prices, where things are selling, etc. and more for a snapshot of the market’s speed.
Per the Charlottesville MLS (and acknowledging that the numbers will shift as end-of-the month-closings are entered into the system:
Some things are looking pretty good … Initially I was working with data from the Charlottesville MSA, but I had to pull the data apart and limit my query to Charlottesville and Albemarle, single family and attached homes. I wasn’t looking for hard numbers (yet) but more a sense of how fast things are selling, and hopefully what the list-to-sale ratio was in April.
In Charlottesville and Albemarle in April, for only single family and attached homes (not marked as “new construction”: (yeah, I know this would look super-cool as a snazzy info graphic, but we make decisions based on data and insight rather than pretty pictures, right? )
112 122 homes sold in April in Charlottesville and Albemarle
- 8 had continuous days on market of 3 or less — average DOM was 2; homes sold for 99.3% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $151
- 32 had continuous days on market of 15 or less — average DOM was 7; homes sold for 98% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $145
- 43 had continuous days on market of 30 or less — average DOM was 10; homes sold for 97.8% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $143
On the other side of the days on market conversation:
- 43 had continuous days on market of 90 – 120 days — average DOM was 189; homes sold for 94.6% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $148
- 10 had continuous days on market of 120 – 180 days — average DOM was 140; homes sold for 95.5% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $143
- 25 had continuous days on market of > 180 days — average DOM was 240; homes sold for 93.9% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $154
Short story: YOUR MARKET will vary. But – price your home just right you’re going to be better positioned to sell your house faster for closer to the asking price. Here’s the thing – there’s an outside chance you might sell your home for a little bit more if you wait for that one buyer. Continue reading
YOUR market will vary.
Even though this is what we believe to be an extremely accurate market report, it’s still a broad-brush report.
Mill Creek will have different inventory levels and absorption rates than will Old Trail, or the Gleason condos. As will different price points. i.e. – low absorption rate at $1 million + , high absorption rate in the $300k – $400k price point.
Dig in, get educated, ask questions, either in the comments below or email or call me anytime.
This is an example of how saying “sales are up” or “sales are down” doesn’t tell the whole picture.
For all residential sales year to date in the Charlottesville MSA:
Very broad takeaways -
- Inventory levels across the MSA are up, sales are down.
- Quality inventory is anecdotally way down
- In some market segments, multiple offers are common place.
- New construction is going to be a huge market segment – for better or worse.
- Being prepared to act fast – whether as a buyer or seller – is crucial.
The full report is embedded below, or download it here.
Numbers matter. Today is the new normal when evaluating the Charlottesville real estate market. Last year’s market matters (as do the previous years) but what truly matters to buyers and sellers is what today’s market is.
Some context – the number of homes (single family, attached, condo) sold – in the first quarter – in Charlottesville and Albemarle since 1999:
For this story, I’m not looking at Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, Louisa as their growth seems to have started a bit after Charlottesville’s and Albemarle’s did, respectively. Right now, I’m seeking consistent volume in the real estate market.
Single family homes are the traditional marker of the market, for the sake of consistency. Attached homes have exploded in popularity (we’ll be looking at new construction numbers next week) in the past 5-7 years.
For anyone looking to buy a home in the Charlottesville-Albemarle markets right now, five key points to be aware of are:
- Quality inventory is in high demand, low supply. Of the 550 homes (all types) in the MSA that went under contract in 1st Quarter 2013, 276 had days on market of less than 30, 214 had days on market of less than 14, 129 had days on market of less than 3! (57 had days on market of at least 300)
- Overall inventory is up (surprised, right? Me too)
- Quality, well-priced homes are selling – fast. Often with multiple offers (I’ve written several escalation clauses in the past few weeks, if you can believe it)
- Being prepared – both as a buyer and seller – is crucial. Know the market; hire a quality real estate agent, prepare your house effectively.
- Be patient. If you’re a buyer looking in particular segments, you might have to lose at least one house in the process. I know it sucks. But there will be another house.
If you’re interested in the actual numbers, click through to see the rest of the story.
At least, after showing dozens of houses over the past few days and seeing many desired homes go under contract before my clients could get to them, this is my conclusion: Some segments of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate market have turned.
Not all. Maybe not most, but several, possibly even many micro-segments of the Charlottesville real estate market are seeing remarkably low, unhealthily low levels of inventory.
In the Baker-Buter and Hollymead elementary school districts:
There are currently 36 single family homes under contract.
- 26 of those have continuous days on market of less than 30.
- 19 have continuous days on market of less than 7!
In Crozet and Brownsville elementary school districts:
There are currently 63 single family homes under contract.
- 44 of those have continuous days on market of less than 30.
- 36 have continuous days on market of less than 7!
In the City of Charlottesville:
- There are currently 69 homes listed as being under contract.
- 32 have continuous days on market of less than 30.
- 17 have continuous days on market of less than 7!
For Charlottesville + Albemarle:
- There are currently 323 homes under contract.- 121 have continuous days on market under 7. Holy. Cow.- But. 68 of those 323 homes have days on market of at least 180. - YOUR market will vary.
What does this mean?
For buyers – get ready. Be prepared (to be frustrated as well as ready to move fast). Be pre approved. Identify your target micro market, and be ready to act quickly. Bidding wars are happening. Houses are going under contract in days rather than weeks. Scheduling showings on Monday for a Saturday showing is no longer an option.
For sellers – now could be the best time in 7 years for you to sell. But … you might not have a place to move into.
* Excluding new construction. If you want new construction in Charlottesville or Albemarle, it’s everywhere; you can get it.
1 – Inventory is low – (good for sellers, not so good for buyers)
2 – Interest rates remain low
3 – Prices (in many market segments) have stopped dropping, and are largely increasing.
4 – Sales volume is up across the board
5 – As always, do your own, supporting due diligence; your market will vary.
Click through to read the full Nest Report. Continue reading
The past few years in real estate have been brutal, fascinating, and educational. 2012 is behind us and the 2013 market is picking up in Charlottesville. There are a few things to pay attention to when you’re looking at the real estate market in Central Virginia this year. (“So whats” are at the end):
- Inventory remains a key conversation point – quality inventory that people actually want to buy – has been consistently lower in Charlottesville and Albemarle than we’ve seen in years. “Quality inventory” defined as a home that is well-priced, in great condition, desirable locations.
Home Prices* – Broadly speaking, if there is a glut of inventory fed by new construction and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines for years, home prices will likely waver between stability and increasing. If good quality inventory comes and goes at a reasonable pace, home prices may rise, particularly as the market is fueled by ridiculously low interest rates.
Fewer distressed sales – As the market has continued to correct, banks have seemingly done a better job of selling off their inventory and facilitating short sales. Fewer distressed sales may lead to a more stable market. (Although, more homeowners may be distressed but unable to short sell and therefore unwilling to let their homes go to foreclosure).
More confidence in the market as unemployment stabilizes (underemployment is a different conversation). More stability is likely to mean more buyers
Frustration felt by buyers who are seeing prices rise (again). If prices do indeed start to rise again, many buyers will be kicking themselves for waiting. Some are predicting national home prices to rise by nearly 10% this year; if this happens (and I hope it doesn’t), expect to see more discussion about another bubble. But … if you’re confident you’re going to be in the Charlottesville area for the next 5-7 years, it might be worthwhile to have a conversation about buying a home.
Apartments – there are going to be a lot more available in 2013 and 2014. A few of the new complexes: Arden Place (Rio Road), The Pavilion at North Grounds (Millmont/UVA), Stonefield Commons (Hydraulic & 29), The Reserve at Belvedere (Rio), the Plaza on West Main (UVA), City Walk (Downtown – more on the Coal Tower). As I said, a lot more apartments will be coming on the market soon.
Inventory is down (everywhere), contracts are up (broadly), sales are up (generally),
- Quality inventory is still low.
- The fiscal cliff generated by the irrepressible idiots in Washington is creating uncertainty – something we don’t need.
- One month isn’t a trend, particularly as the numbers are so broadly skewed in some cases.
- As I noted yesterday, more foreclosures are needed in order to find a definable, sustainable recovery.
- Your market – whatever that is – is part of this report, but for a true understanding of whether you can sell or should buy you need to seek out and find specific advice and insight to your situation.
The data’s not bad. Not bad at all.
If you’re a buyer in the Charlottesville market, you know that right now, inventory is low. Quality inventory is lower. Depending on your market segment, much lower.
Be prepared to wait. And then, be prepared to move quickly when the right house comes on the market. Now is the time to start your education on and about the Charlottesville real estate market, so that when January comes, you’ll be ready. (Seriously; if you’re looking, ask me what the first steps are)
There are a lot of reasons for this low inventory, starting with time of year/seasonality of the market, number of transactions (broadly) are up – see the bottom of this post -, reduced foreclosures and a few other reasons, but I have a working theory on why we’re going to see this type of reduced inventory for a few years. Starting with an example that lends credibility to my hypothesis:
I was showing houses this weekend (I’m a real estate agent donchaknow) and we saw a house in Charlottesville.
Asking price is $550k, slightly reduced from its initial asking price nearly a year ago.
House sold in 1993 for $290k
Sold in 2001 for $380k
Sold in 2007 for $570k.
Worth (in my opinion) significantly less than what they paid in 2007.
Not many people have accrued ~ $50k – $100k to get out of a house. And this homeowner isn’t alone.
I propose that we still have a ways to go to get through the inventory of homes owned by those who still can’t afford to sell … and with the fact that getting a mortgage after foreclosure is easier than ever, the business decision of walking away still makes sense for some (many?)
In short, I think we’re going to see low levels of quality housing inventory – for homes that many buyers want to buy – at low levels for years to come. This low level is going to lead to some interesting trends I’m starting to see; more on this in another post.