Level-setting the 2024 Charlottesville - Albemarle Real Estate Market

2023 continued the 15 year-plus trend of too little inventory, and more buyers than sellers. Market dynamics seen before (supply & demand), and dynamics unseen (skyrocketing rates & increasing rather than decreasing sales prices). This is a level-setting post, not one from which to draw conclusions.

Example: in the first 9 days of 2021, there were 34 new resale listings in the MLS; in the first 9 days of 2022, there were 12 new listings, and in the first 9 days of 2023, there were 31 new listings. In the first 9 days of 2024, there have been 34 new listings. Is this a trend, a sign of what 2024 will be, or nothing meaningful at all? We’ll see.

*(single family + attached, Albemarle + Charlottesville, not new construction)

The “normal” Charlottesville real estate market is the market we are in right now. …

Charlottesville 2023 (and 2022)

() represents 2022

55 attached homes sold.(70) Average price was $384K ($339K). Days on market: 13 (20)
293 detached homes sold (411). Average price was $618K. ($584) Days on market: 25 (21)
14 new construction homes sold via the MLS last year — 7 on Rialto, 6 in Lochlyn Hill, and 1 in Frys Spring. Average price was $700,590
- Average price of attached (7) – $684,695
- Average price of detached (7) – $716,484

Albemarle 2023 (2022)

579 attached homes sold.(497) Average price was $448 ($400K). Days on market: 20 (16)
984 detached homes sold (1172). Average price was $784K. ($751K) Days on market: 31 (24)
New construction in Albemarle remained strong in 2023.
- In 2023, 484 out of 1,563 sold attached/detached homes were new construction, and 2024 is starting similarly in part due to the lack of good resale inventory.
- Detached in 2023 – 176 (223), average price: $875,262 ($846,012)
- Attached in 2023 – 308 (161) average price: $480,256 ($462,808)
- You see that fewer single family sold in 2023 compared to 2022, while attached had a huge increase year over year. I see this as driven largely by what inventory was provided by the builders, what was viable in the County to build, timing of the planning and execution, and finally — price. While some buyers might want single family, their budgets drive them to attached. That, and lifestyles drive buyers to attached products — less maintenance inside and out, and located with communities that work.

… And I’ll tell you in 18 months what happens tomorrow in the Charlottesville or Albemarle real estate markets.

So, What About 2024’s Charlottesville market?

It’s too soon to tell how the new zoning in the City of Charlottesville is going to affect the Charlottesville real estate market, Reddit speculation aside.
- Dig into the City zoning map here. And the city zoning draft from November 2023 here.
- I’ve written before that I see the new zoning as good — more density within the landlocked City limits, and less good — without contiguous bike/ped infrastructure within the City, and connecting to the County’s urban rings, a big part of the equation is missing. Time will tell; this is a generational not an immediate change.
Too little of the “right” inventory for the market — buyers buying what’s available, not necessarily what they want, whether that’s first floor living, or smaller more efficient living close to urban amenities.
There are still (and will be) a lot of sellers “stuck” due to either interest rates, or because while they could sell and make a profit, “what’s next” is far more expensive.
Fewer agents doing more of the business, and more buyers and sellers interviewing agents (ask me if you’d like some good questions to ask). Clients respectfully demanding better service of their representation (I remain baffled at some of the atrocious photos sellers allow to be used; there’s a reason I hire professional photographers for my listings).

I write about this stuff every month as well in my monthly note; you can subscribe here.

What is “Normal”?

I’ve written “new normal” countless times over the years; whatever is happening today is our normal. July 2022
It’s hard to compare markets, and what happened in 2018 does not affect the decisions that buyers and sellers have to make in the 2021 market. Today’s market is our version of normal, and 2022’s will be that version of normal, and on and on. – November 2021
There is No “New Normal” in the Real Estate Market – January 2012
Is This The New Normal in the Charlottesville Real Estate Market? – November 2010