Where is Albemarle Growing?

All over.

From Brian Wheeler’s SchoolMatters: Where is Albemarle Growing?:

I recently updated my analysis of the Albemarle County building reports from the past two years which document each quarter where new building permits are being issued in the County.  These do not reflect newly approved developments (e.g. Old Trail Village), but rather homes in developments previously approved where a building permit has now been issued.

The report includes all types of housing, but my analysis is limited to single family detached homes, as those are a leading indicator of future enrollment growth for Albemarle County Schools.

Brian has done an excellent job and service by providing the actual data that should be used when considering redistricting in Albemarle County. Determining where the growth will be is a difficult task.

From one of Brian’s previous posts:

If you look at the list of proposed and current housing developments used by the Redistricting Committee and Dr. Castner in isolation, you can easily conclude about 50% of the development is coming up Route 29 North.  However, this report does not include Old Trail Village or Wickham Pond (two developments in Crozet submitted after the committee started its work).  It also does not include the proposed development at the Breeden Farm (south of I-64 near Mill Creek and 5th Street).  The Breeden Farm alone could be larger than all of the growth projected for Crozet (i.e. there could be housing for more than 12,000 people, the number projected for Crozet).

I wrote about this before.

Growth is going to happen. Maintaining relatively small class sizes and efficient feeder patterns should be priorities. Using accurate, up to date data should be too. It is irresponsible not to use the best data possible. Nobody can see into the future and determine where the kids are going to be. One can get a pretty good idea, though.

One question I have (because I am ignorant for now) – what is the multiplier that the County uses to determine how many kids will be added to the district per new house?

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4 Comments

  1. Brian Wheeler December 4, 2005 at 23:12

    Jim – Thanks for covering this issue. The multipliers, or factors we use to estimate how many children will come from a development, were updated in 2005. They are currently as follows:

    ELEMENTARY
    SF=0.16
    SFA/TH=0.11
    MF=0.09

    MIDDLE SCHOOL
    SF=0.08
    SFA/TH=0.05
    MF=0.03

    HIGH SCHOOL
    SF=0.09
    SFA/TH=0.04
    MF=0.02

    Old Trail Village at 2,200 units was estimated to generate 476 students based on the housing types in their rezoning request. Brian Wheeler

    KEY
    SF=Single Family Detached
    SFA/TH=Single Family Attached/Town home
    MF=Multi-Family – Apartments

  2. Jim December 4, 2005 at 23:21

    Brian –

    Thank you . if only all government was this open and responsive.

    For clarification, how many kids would be generated (for lack of a better term) over a 10 year period by a 100 unit single family development?

    –Jim

  3. Brian Wheeler December 5, 2005 at 12:51

    Jim – We don’t really factor in a time frame. You just take the proposed units by type, and pretending they were all built and occupied at once, determine what the projected student enrollment would be as a result. So in the case of a 100 single family detached homes, it would be: (100*.16)+(100*.08)+(100*.09)=16+8+9=33 students for all grades. Brian

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