I recently updated my analysis of the Albemarle County building reports from the past two years which document each quarter where new building permits are being issued in the County. These do not reflect newly approved developments (e.g. Old Trail Village), but rather homes in developments previously approved where a building permit has now been issued.
The report includes all types of housing, but my analysis is limited to single family detached homes, as those are a leading indicator of future enrollment growth for Albemarle County Schools.
From one of Brian’s previous posts:
If you look at the list of proposed and current housing developments used by the Redistricting Committee and Dr. Castner in isolation, you can easily conclude about 50% of the development is coming up Route 29 North.Â However, this report does not include Old Trail Village or Wickham Pond (two developments in Crozet submitted after the committee started its work).Â It also does not include the proposed development at the Breeden Farm (south of I-64 near Mill Creek and 5th Street).Â The Breeden Farm alone could be larger than all of the growth projected for Crozet (i.e. there could be housing for more than 12,000 people, the number projected for Crozet).
Growth is going to happen. Maintaining relatively small class sizes and efficient feeder patterns should be priorities. Using accurate, up to date data should be too. It is irresponsible not to use the best data possible. Nobody can see into the future and determine where the kids are going to be. One can get a pretty good idea, though.
One question I have (because I am ignorant for now) – what is the multiplier that the County uses to determine how many kids will be added to the district per new house?