How do you know it’s over?

Until you’re able to look back on the bottom? I love economists.

Some say the worst of the housing bust is over. Another says that the housing numbers look worse than expected. Whom to believe?

Things change so fast in the breathless headline-writing world:

11/15/2006: Mortgage applications hit highest since January.
11/22/2006: Mortgage applications fall in latest week (Press release from the Mortgage Bankers Association)

How do we know that the housing “bust/correction/adjustment” (how about “change”) is over? My answer – when we are able to look back from a perspective of nine to eighteen months and say, “see, here are the data, this is the trend of where we were, and here is where we are.” Until then, speculation about every move – a move of any kind -  of the market is just that – speculation, even if it’s educated speculation.

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4 Comments

  1. Athol Kay November 22, 2006 at 15:34

    There is an old Zen saying;

    “Prediction is always hard. Especially so with regards to the future.”

    Or as Yoda said;

    “Difficult to see the future is. Always emotion.”

  2. Jim Duncan November 25, 2006 at 10:21

    Same to you, Ardell!

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