Something I said today makes sense

Regarding the current real estate market in Charlottesville:

“There is a lot of inventory out there but there are also a lot of buyers. One big difference seems to be that sellers are working under timelines and deadlines, and buyers aren’t.”

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4 Comments

  1. Sock Puppet April 23, 2007 at 15:56

    It does make sense. I’m seeing similar stuff here in CT.

    Though I’m starting to ignore the entire buyers vs sellers market discussion completely. I’m just saying any market is a values market. If your house is perceived as having value, it will sell, and sell well. If not, it won’t.

    I picked that up from someone on the RE.net but I forget who.

    -Athol

  2. Jim Duncan April 24, 2007 at 06:55

    Athol –

    I agree; trying to categorize the market detracts from the analysis.

  3. Potential Buyer April 24, 2007 at 10:58

    This phenomenon is well known to economists. Here is a good overview by an analyst at PIMCO, the best bond managers in the country: http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Global+Markets/Global+Credit+Perspectives/2007/U.S.+Credit+Perspectives-+5-2007.htm

    Note, in particular, the following paragraph:

    We know from the NASDAQ bubble that once risk appetite changes, prices can shift violently in the other direction. Housing is different from equities because it is much less liquid; therefore price adjustments take more time. In a down housing market, the gap between buyers and sellers widens, and volumes fall. Buyers pull back and sellers take time to realize their listing prices are too high. Eventually, housing prices in entire neighborhoods will get reset downward by the weakest hand. Just as prices went up and everyone in the neighborhood applauded the newest neighbor who bought at the top, prices will likely start to fall as financially-stretched home owners and speculators sell, and are forced out of the market. As this process unfolds, risk appetite for housing should take a sharp turn for the worse. This year’s weak start to the traditionally strong spring selling season suggests we have indeed entered the “buyer’s strike” phase of the cycle.

    Doesn’t this describe the housing market in Charlottesville right now?

  4. Jim Duncan April 24, 2007 at 11:27

    Funny you mention that article. Do you read Calculated Risk, too?

    I would say that yes, that accurately, and generally, describes the Charlottesville/Central Virginia market.

    That said, I feel that for those who are purchasing for the “right” reasons, this is as good time as any to purchase.

    –more on the “right” reasons soon.