It’s humbling and a bit embarrassing to look back to my first posts on 4 January 2005, on a vastly different (and inferior, non-open-source) blogging platform – but it was a good place to start.I’d like to think I and this site have grown, matured, tried new things and failed and learned in the process…. Its evolution has been one marked by rapid change, persistence, patience and a dedication to providing the absolute best local analysis of the Charlottesville area real estate market – targeted at buyers, sellers, real estate voyeurs and fellow real estate professionals.I remain passionate and committed to the real estate industry and my clients, and this blog is a big reason for that…. Thank you.Take a quick look at the search traffic for “real estate blog” -A quick look at the Internet Archive shows parts of the evolution.October 18 2005June 30 2006 (one of my favorites, as it shows a hidden “river” showing itself in the City of Charlottesville)February 1 2007 – Sold comps matter lessMuch has changed in three years – there are many more real estate bloggers than there were three years ago. Having been one of the first real estate bloggers gives me a unique perspective, and one thing is constantly being reinforced – being first matters not one damn bit unless you provide consistently high quality content and constantly innovate to meet and stay ahead of consumers’ and readers’ expectations.Blogging has become easier; the threshold for entry is very low – and that is good and bad…. Thank you to the real estate bloggers I have met, on and offline, to the local media who have been so receptive to seeking me out occasionally, to the readers and commenters and to the clients I have gained.I am grateful for your time, your knowledge and for the opportunity to know you, and look forward to another year of writing, analyzing and interacting with readers, clients and friends on and off line.
Date Archives January 2008
Appearance on local TV in Charlottesville
Channel 29 did a not-so-terrible story today on the local housing market. Even better, they shot my interview at a house I am marketing.The creaky sign at the beginning was classically ominous. (I wish I could embed the video)What will the shift do to real estate consumers’ psychology?No Better Science than you’ll find in VegasAnd no, I’m not going to say that we’re in “trouble;” here’s why.*If you’re a mac user, you need to download this video player. And change the user agent in Safari to say you use Internet Explorer.** This is the second time this year that I’ve been able to market a property via the local news.
More foreclosures than we’re used to
As seen in this week’s HooK.
Charlottesville Housing Inventory for the start of 2008
Today, in Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson (and Augusta/Waynesboro, as hey are becoming such a part of our market)***As of 1 January, there were currently 2206 properties on the market in the Charlottesville market area, and 400 were under contract. A quick look back at the past three years shows that our market has changed dramatically. On 3 January, there are 2443 active on the market, and 467 under contract.*I’m choosing to start the year off with this thought in mind:But let’s be frank: After such a run of down and bad numbers through most of 2006 and 2007, will it really be a big surprise if housing demand and sales and new construction finally begin showing signs of recovery — even modest recovery — in the year ahead?Looking back (and stating the obvious), the National Association of Realtors did not have the best track record,while the Mortgage Bankers Association was a little bit closer:Independent of the fact that I make my living representing clients buying and selling real estate in the Charlottesville area, I have been told by several clients that they perceive right now to be an excellent time to buy. *Charlottesville market area has been: Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson** The tables do not include Waynesboro/Augusta, as they did not begin to participate in our MLS substantially until 2007.*** Going forward in 2008, I am going to try to include Waynesboro/Augusta as well.
End of year Realtor stats for the Charlottesville area
Here is my prediction, spun two ways -15% of Realtors will choose not to renew their licenses.or85% of Charlottesville Realtors choose to persevere through 2008.(I’m planning and planning to be one of them)On January 3 2008, looking back at 2007:- 168 Realtors had at least 10 transactions.- 190 Realtors had at least 5 sides.- 183 had only one side.- Approximately 400 had zero transactions in 2007 (about 800 had at least one).January 7 2007:228 had at least 10 transactions.407 had at least 5 transactions, or sides.About 350 had zero transactions in 2006.January 4 2006:873 Realtors in the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors had at least one “side†in 2005.501 had at least 5 sides. Of the top 10 agents, 6 of those 10 sold primarily condo conversions or new construction.**If one were to take out the agents that did primarily new construction or condo conversions, the numbers would be much different – the top 6 agents actually fall into this group.The numbers of Realtors in the Charlottesville area is certain to decline in 2008. One simply cannot make a living on so few transactions per year.
Focusing on the wrong tools
A couple of weeks ago, the Charlottesville Albemarle Technical Education Center held a panel to discuss ways to implement technology in the classroom.Marijean Jagger, Waldo Jaquith, Sean Tubbs, Jim Bain, and I were some of the “tech folks” invited to participate along with several members of the Charlottesville and Albemarle School systems.What technology did we recommend? The “tech” folks in attendance agreed on many things, most strikingly that focusing on which tech tools to use was not the best use of resources.Reading, writing, critical analysis, independent thinking, independent research – from multiple, often contradicting sources – these were the skills that the tech people thought should be the focus…. By the time bureaucracies figure out how to use Facebook, something else likely will be emerging to take its place.Changing gears, the argument is often made that “we’re in the real estate business, not the technology business!”… Fragmentation of the message will continue in 2008, but there will be an equally vigorous effort to reassemble (and profit from) the disparate messages and mediums.Dustin said it perhaps best:I really don’t care if its a new CMS, new listing tool, new social network, new blogging tool, new MLS backend, or new analysis reports… If you can get enough consumer eyeballs, the real estate agents will follow.Same goes for the school system.
Google’s speedy indexing of pages not always a good thing
The problem is that you can’t rank a page that has just been created because it has no backlinks so Google artificially inflates the rankings of the recently-created pages based on historical data and the few backlinks that are detected.And this one:And to think…all you had to do was comment on this blogger / REALTOR’s post and you could have actually ENHANCED your online reputation…. Google stuffed this post into the #2 spot for that search (Todd Kaufman assessor) – 11 minutes after I posted it…From Merv:The public wants transparency in this industry that has been missing since dirt. Real estate Bloggers are bringing transparency and consumers love it.The unnamed government official is making a name for himself that he really doesn’t want (actually, his name is all over the planet)…. This is going to be a watershed debate.This all hit the proverbial fan on 29 December; Jay has a great recap.English posts that contain “todd Kaufman” per day for the last 30 days.I wonder when there will be either true main stream media coverage or an official response.