Delaying posting market data

Until the first week of March. It will be more useful to wait until the first quarter is in full swing before posting any further analysis, other than anecdotal evidence.

Today’s release of national real estate data shows that home sales are down nationally, and the Calculated Risk has typically insightful analysis. But … this data gives more insight into the psychology of today’s buyers and sellers and not so much into the Central Virginia real estate market.

In the meantime, check here for all stories I’ve written about the local market.

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3 Comments

  1. Larry Jewel February 26, 2008 at 19:15

    “Today’s release of national real estate data shows that home sales are down nationally…But … this data gives more insight into the psychology of today’s buyers and sellers and not so much into the Central Virginia real estate market.”

    Wrong! Local buyers are aware of the national trend, and are acting accordingly.

    Local sellers are starting to get a clue, too: many have dropped their prices by 15-20%, which translates to 25K to 75K…and the houses STILL aren’t moving.

    There’s many months of backlog on the market here in C’ville/Albemarle, which doesn’t include houses pulled OFF the market for the winter. It’s a glut, and will get worse in two months.

    BUYERS are waiting for the market to go lower, especially first time buyers, so they don’t make the same mistake that plagues many current homeowners: an inflated property value that will go down 15% in 2008 and 10% more in 2009, if the Merril-Lynch report is accurate.

    Agents should inform sellers who really need to move their properties that they need to price accordingly. THIS is what will make the local market move again.

    Reply
  2. Jim Duncan February 26, 2008 at 20:52

    Larry –

    Thanks for the comment. You’re right. What I meant to say (I wrote it in my head) is that the national data don’t show specific trends for the local market.

    We can certainly extrapolate from the national information that the market has not yet hit the proverbial, ill-defined “bottom.”

    I’m (mostly) looking forward to the March numbers for our market.

    Reply
  3. Erik March 1, 2008 at 10:47

    Is that the same Merrill Lynch that just wrote off $7.78 billion in subprime loans? Clearly if they were so smart they’d have stayed out of the silliness on the way up.

    As with most things in life, they’re never as good as they sound or seem on the way up (the internet bubble, the housing market), and similarly they’re rarely as bad as they seem or sound on the way down (the internet bubble, past housing slumps). People still need homes, people still move and over time most buyers will find that their home purchase was a profitable endeavor.

    Reply

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