Is This The New Normal in the Charlottesville Real Estate Market?

I’ve been wondering for a long time what the new normal in the Charlottesville* real estate market is going to look like over the next few years. Today’s is a post posing a question rather than positing an answer.

Transactional Volume for Charlottesville MSA - 1999 versus 2010
Transactional Volume for Charlottesville MSA - 1999 versus 2010

Prices aside, is this volume the “new normal” for the Charlottesville market?

What are the impacts on the market, the number of agents (answer: very little – the Charlottesville Area Realtor Association is poised to lose but a handful of Realtors next year, out of about 1,000, a relatively small percentage of whom are productive ), the number of productive Realtors, the number of brokerages. The number of Realtors nationwide may be forecast to drop, but I don’t see that happening.

Of course, the predictions that the number of Realtors will drop have been ongoing.

Another question – what will the net migration trend be? The Charlottesville MSA added about 13,467 people via net migration from April 1 2000 to July 1 2009. Source: Weldon Cooper Center.

I’m not through sorting out what the data means, but I’m still trying.

*Defined as Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson. While Louisa County is now more a part of our market, it wasn’t in the reference year (2000)

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3 Comments

  1. Paul Erb November 27, 2010 at 08:38

    Jim, I adjusted the ’99 $$ volume figures for inflation, and re-did the percentages (using every other month). The % changes are a little different with that adjustment. For Jan, Mar, May, July, Sep, I get 0.75, 1.13, 1.29, 0.64, 1.00, Still not a great story, since 1999 to 2010 inflation rate is 1.31, and all of these lag that…but not as worrisome as I thought at first. May gets a silver medal.

    Reply
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