I’ve been wondering for a long time what the new normal in the Charlottesville* real estate market is going to look like over the next few years. Today’s is a post posing a question rather than positing an answer.
![Transactional Volume for Charlottesville MSA - 1999 versus 2010 Transactional Volume for Charlottesville MSA - 1999 versus 2010](https://i0.wp.com/realcentralva.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Transactional-Volume-for-Charlottesville-MSA-1999-versus-2010-300x170.jpg?resize=500%2C300)
Prices aside, is this volume the “new normal” for the Charlottesville market?
What are the impacts on the market, the number of agents (answer: very little – the Charlottesville Area Realtor Association is poised to lose but a handful of Realtors next year, out of about 1,000, a relatively small percentage of whom are productive ), the number of productive Realtors, the number of brokerages. The number of Realtors nationwide may be forecast to drop, but I don’t see that happening.
Of course, the predictions that the number of Realtors will drop have been ongoing.
Another question – what will the net migration trend be? The Charlottesville MSA added about 13,467 people via net migration from April 1 2000 to July 1 2009. Source: Weldon Cooper Center.
I’m not through sorting out what the data means, but I’m still trying.
*Defined as Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson. While Louisa County is now more a part of our market, it wasn’t in the reference year (2000)
Jim, I adjusted the ’99 $$ volume figures for inflation, and re-did the percentages (using every other month). The % changes are a little different with that adjustment. For Jan, Mar, May, July, Sep, I get 0.75, 1.13, 1.29, 0.64, 1.00, Still not a great story, since 1999 to 2010 inflation rate is 1.31, and all of these lag that…but not as worrisome as I thought at first. May gets a silver medal.
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