Archives of my subscription-only monthly notes. The blog is more searchable. Interested in not waiting a few months to read it? Learn more here. For these posts, I don’t do much formatting/changing as I’m more concerned about simply having the content here (because I own the blog, and not Tinyletter)
We’re closing out 2016, and I’m going to do a full wrap-up in next month’s note (as full as possible, for December). For now, a few points, and a few data points for perspective.
- Not enough inventory
- A lot of unsatisfied buyers
- New construction taking off … but usually starting well north of $400K for single family homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle. Median sold price for new construction so far this year in Albemarle County is $521K. In the City of Charlottesville, median sold price is $400K. The City and County better start bringing in good jobs to sustain this. And by “bring in,” I don’t mean “from each other.” (See: WorldStrides and CFA Institute moving from County to City.)
Call or email me anytime. 434-242-7140 – email@example.com
Data points to consider, when evaluating 1 August to 23 November, 2015 vs 2016 in Charlottesville + Albemarle
- In 2015
- At least* 581 attached + detached homes sold. Median Price was $310K
- Average Days on Market was 71. High DOM was 838; low was 0
- Low price was $40K; high was $7M; both the $40K and $7M transactions were cash sales.
- In 2016
- At least* 693 attached + detached homes sold. Median Price was $315K
- Average Days on Market was 56. High DOM was 1163; low was 0
- Low price was $30K; high was $7M. Amazingly, in the $7M cash home sale, the seller conceded $5K at closing. Real estate is weird sometimes
What impact will the election have on the Charlottesville real estate market?
I’m hearing from more than a few people that they have uncertainty and anxiety about what 2017 is going to bring with respect to a Trump presidency. I’ll refer you to my October 2014 Note:
Real estate – buying, selling, representing buyers and sellers – can be and often is an extremely stressful thing, an experience that can be either joyful or traumatic, and sometimes both. But perspective is crucial. Many years ago, I was representing buyers when the transaction took a decidedly negative turn. In the midst of the angst, the stress, and the pain, my client looked at me and said, “Look, this is nothing. My friend dying in my arms this year (in a country in the middle east) – that’s something worth getting upset about.” (All worked out in the end.)
Those words have stayed with me, and I tend to reflect on them on a near-weekly basis. Yeah, I know. This sucks sometimes. Find 15 minutes and watch John Oliver talk about what really sucks (Hint: drones raining hellfire down upon you.) And then practice the Serenity Prayer with me.
Listen to the Hidden Brain podcast (episode 51, “What Happened”?) — and then tell me what you think the next few months are going to yield — in the real estate market.
- Some early Thoughts on the Impact of the Trump Economic Policies
- (Real estate) Industry experts forecast economy and housing market under Trump
- Donald Trump Presidency May Prove Beneficial to Luxury Real Estate Market Globally – this is from “Mansion Global.” I had to share just because I thought “Mansion Global” was hysterical.
Bottom line: we need to wait for the details, but there will probably be a modest stimulus boost for 2017.
Galibier/Great Customer Service
I’ve already bought some other stuff from them, and will continue to do so. He gave me his honest input. When I’m representing buyers, I want them to buy the right house for them – not any house, but the right house. I’ve told countless buyers countless times that my advice is to either walk away or not make an offer … because it’s the right thing to do.
Galibier’s customer service is why I continue to visit them, and it’s the sort of candor – and availability/accessibility – I offer to my clients. With the pound being where it is, I’ll be buying more Galibier stuff soon.
My new Doctor
Not particularly real estate related, more of a community thing, but I have a new doctor. One of the “concierge” doctors I’d heard about. Long story short: I was sick (an extraordinarily rare thing) and called my doctor, where was told I needed to come in, then I was put on hold for 10 minutes. And then hung up on. Frustrated, I found my way to Dr. Maura McLoughlin, who answered her phone when I called. The doctor. Answered. The phone.
A client – a young guy – told me years ago that his parents told him that when he moved to a new town, he should get an attorney, a doctor, and a real estate agent. I’m 40, and I’ve just found a doctor. Health care is broken, but this may be a start on the right path.
Bringing on an assistant
I’ve long been told that I should have an assistant. Finding the right person has been one of the most monumental challenges, but I’m at a point now where I’d like to think I’ve found the right person. Bringing her onboard has been an interesting, and evolving experience. Evaluating systems, refining checklists, thinking about what goes into representation, and seeing her growing awareness for just how much work real estate representation is – and how much fun and full of minutiae is involved.
Look for me to write about this process in the coming months. Inlookers, and longer-time readers: I’ve found Slack to be enormously useful for this process.
What I’m Reading
- The Wave of Millennial Home Buyers is Coming
- Why Building Community Is Harder Than It Looks
- Empathy is a Bridge
- The Confusion about Enough
- Second Century Ventures Invests in Trust Stamp and Keeping Realtors® Safe
- A connected lockbox for dropping off keys
- A tremendous thought from a TEDx talk (Lalin is a client, and she’s awesome)
- Goldman: “2017 Outlook: Under New Management”
- Bike lanes and train tracks
- Housing Counselors
- Albemarle County School Academy Open Houses
- Macro real estate trends with the NAR’s Lawrence Yun
- Life in Albemarle County
- Crozet real estate market video
- Love for Greenhouse Coffee
- Crozet in the fall is special
- CCAC meeting wrapup
- Crozet schools, population, and growth — we’re going to be in trouble sooner rather than later if we don’t address growth and infrastructure.
- Chalk kindness at Brownsville Elementary – this is so cool.
- Think of businesses in Crozet; a good response to the snob zoning story.
I hesitate to put this out there, but we’re in interesting times. I’m giving a bit of money to the causes that I think are going to benefit our society in the coming weeks, months, and years.
- Charlottesville Food Bank – the one that’s been my family’s target charity for years; no one should go hungry.
- Charlottesville Tomorrow
- UVA Children’s Medical Center (through Nest)
- International Rescue Committee
Next month: Looking at the 2016 real estate market, unrepresented sellers, growth and meaning of the Crozet Cycling Club, and an example of why so many people avoid HOAs.
Jim on: Facebook | Twitter | LinkedIn | Subscribe to RealCentralVA | Jim’s Instagram
Jim Duncan, Nest Realty, 126 Garrett Street Suite D, Charlottesville, VA 22902. Licensed real estate agent in Commonwealth of VA.