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Happy December. Thank you for reading.
This month, 18 years and the market, take the chance if you can, World Cup, connecting today, and an app interesting enough to write about (and pay for!)
Apology and thanks
I’m sorry for that email. Substack has a chat feature that looks interesting, but to initiate it I need to send a separate email each month, and you need to install the Substack app. I promised you only one email a month, and that’s what I intend to do for now. If Substack evolves to where “just chat” is an option for the chat, I’ll reevaluate. Until then, thanks for reading the one email a month!
18 years and the Market
18 years is the new expected median tenure in a home. This is a massive shift and is going to have an enormous effect on the real estate market if it holds true.
When I started practicing in 2001, most of my clients stayed for ~ 5 years.
Couple that 18 years with so many homeowners without mortgages or with fixed-rate mortgages under 5%, and low inventory, and we have a very different real estate market than we have seen. It is what it is.
Some recent buyer context that I think highlights the above.
- For November 1 to December 11.
- House price – $200K to $400K
- > 3BR and > 2BA
- Albemarle + Charlottesville
- Single-family homes
- 2022: 21 new listings
- 2021: 33 new listings
- 2020: 47 new listings
- 2019: 53 new listings
- 2018: 50 new listings
That’s not a lot of new listings. Hopefully we’ll see more homes on the market in January.
Take the chance.
I was sitting at my friend’s kitchen counter in August 1995, the summer after my Rat year at VMI, talking to her and her mom.
The Grateful Dead were touring, and we were talking about how I’d not been able to see the Dead in July because I hadn’t been able to scrounge up money for tickets — I hadn’t fought to scrounge, but it was fine, as I’d be able to see them soon.
And then someone called and said that Jerry had died.
Take the chance, whatever it may be. It might not come again. (Here’s their last show on July 9, 1995.)
Kardinal Hall and the World Cup
The World Cup is over, and while the US didn’t make it out of the knockout stages, the World Cup Final was incredible (Despite being held in a horrible country.)
Watching the World Cup was a family event. My dad and I texted throughout most of the games we watched, my wife and I took some time one morning to watch a match at Kardinal Hall together, and my girls, grandson, wife, and I all watched the final together. We scared our grandson when Messi scored; we yelled and the nearly one-year-old ranto my wife for comfort. I saw that out of the corner of my eye;
Good times. I can’t wait until the World Cup is in North America in four years. Maybe we’ll even get to go to some matches.
While valuable, social media is a time suck. I installed — and quickly paid for — the One Sec app in early December, and it’s already saved me time and frustration. One Sec is an app/iOS shortcut that does a lot of stuff I guess, but I use it to force me to take a deep breath before opening Twitter or Instagram, and then I choose whether I want to continue. Nice design too, with “I don’t want to” bigger than “continue.”
ChatGPT, Connections, Ownership
A bigger thought that takes more time and room than I have this month is ChatGPT and connections.
- Two Podcasts
This is a working writing prompt for January. ChatGPT is either a game changer in artificial intelligence that just changed how we communicate, write, and think or a step in the evolution of AI becoming closer to sentient.
What I do know is that Twitter is dissolving and highlights the need to own, build, maintain one’s content as nothing lasts forever.
ChatGPT: If anyone can write essays and stories using AI, how will humans discern the difference between human and machine writing, and connect to writers and readers?
Next month: predictions, open rates, the market and costs of owning and operating a home.
One final thought.
Morbidity is a fact; maybe consider taking time this holiday season to have some morbid conversations with family members.
I wrote this July of last year.
What to ask family before they die
Starting off on a sunny note: I was telling a client recently that every personal experience can inform my professional guidance. Getting married*, having kids (remember the story about baby crap?), dogs and life, moving, college, and parents getting old.
I don’t have any specific advice to offer other than, before things go sideways, have the logical conversations you need to have. Imagine if you couldn’t talk to that person, but needed to access their stuff. Passwords, logins, bank accounts, insurance contacts, etc. Write that stuff down. Know who to call. Have access to their email accounts and two-factor authentication stuff.
Seriously. Have these discussions before you need to; life can come at you fast.
What I’m Reading
With Twitter’s new direction, I need to find (or rediscover) new places to find information.
- We’re in Denial About the True Cost of a Twitter Implosion
- Redfin launches new feature that shows zoning data on home detail pages
- 24 million homes will be “ripe” for major renovations and improvement projects by 2027.
- Should you rent or buy? First American crunched the numbers
- Physical activity is a powerful drug that isn’t part of a trillion-dollar industry
- Club soccer puts the sport out of reach for many kids. “When it comes to youth soccer opportunities, the U.S. lags the rest of the world, he says. “We are just structurally pushing aside kids who want to play a game that is accessible around the world to kids of all income categories.”“
- Why Is It So Hard for Men to Make Close Friends?
- “Loneliness kills. It’s as powerful as smoking or alcoholism.”
- Americans are choosing to be alone. Here’s why we should reverse that.
- One of the best things I’ve read recently — Headwinds are Heartbeaking. Somewhat related to the three stories above. We started the Crozet Cycling Club several years ago. A few years after we had been riding together, one of my friends in the group said how valuable the group was, as it was the most friendship he’d had in many years. He spoke the truth.
- Covid is Vascular. I’ve had Covid twice. I don’t want it a third time.
- Get a sewer line scope. Or septic inspection.
What I’m Listening To
- exponent on ChatGPT – fascinating listen
- No Mercy / No Malice: Friends
- Is This the End of Social Media? With Ian Bogost
If you made it this far, thank you. 🙂 You don’t win a prize, but I do appreciate your reading!
Eventually, Substack’s photo links will die.