I like looking at real estate numbers – they will either smooth out feelings, or provide clarity or confusion, or all of the above.
For this post, I’m going to look at the first six months of Charlottesville and Albemarle, and since 1 May, and compare only 2025 and 2024.
When I run these numbers, I do so manually, and write the numbers in my notebook — I have spreadsheets, but find that pulling data by hand makes me better understand and feel the numbers; this is part of how I do analyses for clients as well.
This is a quick look, more for level-setting conversation than actual, actionable analysis – that sort of analysis is done client-by-client, property-by-property. More to get a sense of the market than “I’m going to make an offer/put my house on the market because I read a broad analysis.”
Looking only at resales
For the City of Charlottesville
1/1/24 – 6/10/24 1/1/25 – 6/10/25
New resales 278 323 – More new listings than last year. More inventory is good.
New contracts 216 207 – a few fewer contracts – not bad.
Median DOM for contracts 5 7
4/1/24 – 6/10/24 4/1/25 – 6/10/25
New resales 140 170 — 30 more resales is a lot, relatively
New contracts 107 119 – a few more contracts as the market picked up.
Median DOM 5 7
And Albemarle County
1/1/24 – 6/10/24 1/1/25 – 6/10/25
New resales 694 816 – a lot more new listings, year over year. Sellers finally capitulating now that they have two kids in a small 3 bedroom and one works at home, and they just can’t stay anymore, or parents pining to be closer to grandkids in the midwest and finally taking the life plunge?
New contracts 578 588 – ticking up. Ok.
Median DOM 5 7 – also ticking up.
1/1/24 – 6/10/25 4/1/25 – 6/10/25
New resales — 361 434 – that’s a lot more.
New contracts — 311 334 also more.
Median — DOM 5 8 – 3 days is a lot, relatively
One thing I’m touching on the June Monthly Note is fragmentation of data; we depend on accurate data and days on market; what happens if those are taken away?
Sellers take note.
I wrote this last month
Many, if not most, buyers in today’s market don’t want fixer-uppers, because they don’t have the time, the money, the skill set, or the desire to fix up the home. They need/want to clean and move in.
Estimating the cost of work is more and more difficult, especially now in the world of tariffs and uncertainty.
A lot more resales came on the market in Albemarle County from 1 April to 10 June. I’m curious about the why, and know that my lens is going to be different than my colleagues. The things that seem to come up in conversation right now center mainly around the unnecessary uncertainty that is affecting all markets – UVA, NIH, NGIC/DIA – are all affected by the choices being made at the federal level. And ultimately, I nor you can control that. So we assess and analyze the market, and you make the best decision you can.
Inventory matters.
From Greg Slater: (we do videos every couple of months, talking about the market)
Recent June Inventory Levels
- On 6/7/2022 there were 149 resales on the market in Albemarle County. 114 had DOM 10+. Median Price $675k.
- On 6/6/2023 there were 138 resales on the market in Albemarle County. 102 had DOM 10+. Median Price $652k.
- On 6/4/2024 there were 267 resales on the market in Albemarle County. 222 had DOM 10+. Median Price $642k.
Analysis is one thing, but I look at, feel, and practice this market every day (so does Greg), and there is no replacement for experience.
I’ve been saying for 20 years that the Charlottesville real estate market is interesting and weird. I’m rarely surprised, and never shocked.