Happy October — cooler air, falling leaves, market questions — plus a few ideas on housing, cities, and legacy.

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Market Look

I’ve never liked market reports – they provide distance from the market itself, and the reports are often unexamined. When I run numbers for my clients, that often leads to curiosity.

Someone asked me a question about Charlottesville market data. I looked at the local realtor association’s market report, and the numbers just felt wrong. I dug. And the numbers were wrong. I frankly don’t care enough about their report to check their others, so I’ll continue discounting them. (I have on occasion used their infographics, but no more.) It is bad that they are so wrong, and worse that no one else questioned the data. In a world where facts and data are under attack, the data we have responsibility for is even more important and valuable. Good complete data builds trust. Simple.

I ran out of room again this month, so here’s a Charlottesville real estate market blog post.

Short: inventory is rising and well below long-term averages, median sold price is flat to a little bit up YoY, and homes that are well priced and very well presented are moving quickly.

Words to Live by (from a client)

I’ve heard this a few times from clients over the years:

“Never will we buy a house where the owner lives nearby. Anything we do, they question. Every service truck in our driveway… Why are you doing this, why are you doing that. I thought you liked our house, obviously you don’t.

 

 

You’re Being Recorded Everywhere

I had a client who had to stay home and work in his office during showings. He texted us during showings when the buyers would share their candid thoughts on the front porch before and after showings, oblivious to the Ring camera pointed at them.

Just assume you’re being recorded. Step away from the house before saying it’s amazing, the wallpaper is ugly, the house smells funny, or you recognize them from high school.

 

Insurance Volatility

From a reader, in response to my February insurance segment:

I didn’t actually get around to writing specifically about insurance in March, but their guess is a good one — “Due to escalating real estate prices (in Charlottesville) combined with higher construction materials replacement costs and increasing wildfire risk, homeowners insurance cost is skyrocketing.

… according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s RateWatch application.

Based on approved filings through Dec. 27, 2024, the national calculated weighted average effective rate increase for homeowners insurance was 10.4% last year. That uptick followed a 12.7% rise in the previous year.

In the Charlottesville area, I’ve noted the frequency of properties falling within the “4” Wildfire Risk factor. “4” is labeled “Moderate” which doesn’t feel very safe. “4” is on the cusp/borderline of the “5” Major wildfire risk rating. …

We have been wondering if the type of siding has a material impact on our homeowner’s insurance cost. When I called our insurance company, they said no difference between Hardie and vinyl.

I asked a friend in the insurance space for his thoughts.

“There are many factors causing insurance prices to go up.

The increased cost of materials/labor for physical damage repairs is a leading cause. A lot of homes are way undervalued and, depending on the way the policy is written (what percentage of the limit shown will be allowed to be paid out in a claim), the company will be paying out more limit than they really collected premium for. Back when I did write some standard homeowners coverage the carrier never had a total loss where the value shown on the policy was equal to or greater than the value paid out on the claim.

The increased social inflation on the liability side (litigation costs and punitive damage awards) is an additional factor (less so on the personal lines side vs commercial lines).

Climate change definitely will have bigger and bigger effects on the costs and availability of coverage although I think we’re a little more insulated from the extremes around here.

Given the sector of the market I specialize in, I cannot really speak to any specific numbers for the typical insurance buying public. If they end up coming to me (through their agent), they have bigger issues to think about.”

 

Above-grade square footage

There are a bunch of houses on and around Elliott Avenue in Charlottesville that have about 1600 square feet, three bedrooms, and at least one and sometimes two bathrooms. Often a client will email me asking if they can see a new listing that seems to fit their criteria.

Any search tech that does not offer this as a filter is worthless to me.

Once I’ve worked with them a bit and I know what they’re looking for, I’ll often say no.

Why? Because they’re looking for a house with at least 1100 or 1200 above grade finished square feet, and these houses don’t have that.

Helping clients define and refine how to search for homes is a hard-learned skill.

 

Reimagining how we design and build cities

Think generationally. When my wife and I travel, she lovingly suffers my taking pictures of something foreign to Americans – actual, functional infrastructure that allows for moving around without being forced into cars.

Rather than devolve into a rant, I’ll say this — We need to look and plan beyond the next corner, the next election, the next car or truck. Thinking about how we want our kids to live, and their kids to live, could and should lead us to think differently about how we live, build, and grow.

We’d do better to slow down a little and avoid being confined and isolated in our steel cages. Besides, it’s easier to smile and wave to your neighbors when you’re walking or riding at their level.

 

Did you know?

Most real estate closings require wet signatures. Apparently, your signatures shrink 8-10% as you go through the stack of papers you need to sign, as told to me recently by an attorney during a closing.

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Wins matter. We all need wins. My older daughter is “coaching” her older son in soccer, and my younger one texted me that “your legacy continues.”

What I’m Reading

• Real Estate and Housing
  • Zoning Broke our Brains – “Legalizing healthy infrastructure is the first step in the path to recovery.”
  • Q3 2025 recap: cooling prices, multifamily rebounds, and other fundamental shifts – this is excellent analysis.
  • When Should Buyers Pull their Credit (when buying a home)?
  • Over or Under Asking Price for Homes Sold in August in Albemarle County?
  • Why insurers worry the world could soon become uninsurable – if we don’t listen to insurers, who will we listen to?
  • 20 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted – when you see national headlines about the “housing market,” understand they include “the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 15 of the 30 cities are in Florida.”
• Demographics & Society
  • U.S. sees 5.7 million more childless women than expected, fueling a “demographic cliff” – short- and long-term housing market implications are significant
  • The last generation to think for themselves? – I’m reserving judgement; maybe we’re just evolving to think differently.
• Technology & Media
  • OpenAI admits AI hallucinations are mathematically inevitable, not just engineering flaws
  • Learn to Read. Again. “Media literacy is no longer optional—it’s essential for the future of democracy. In an era of hybrid warfare and pervasive disinformation, particularly targeting vulnerable populations, mastering the ability to discern truth from falsehood is critical. This skill is now as important for children as traditional literacy” — Important for children, and adults of all ages.
• Climate & Policy
  • EU climate chief: ‘The reality is, it’s going to get worse’ — I’m reading more European news as that’s where the science lives now.
  • Recalculating the cost of convenience
  • Trump’s NSPM-7 Labels Common Beliefs As Terrorism “Indicators” — this is bad. Deeply, profoundly concerning.
• This. ““F* you, make me” is, to me, the founding principle of this nation. That was our message to King George III, a tyrant descending into madness “

What I’m listening to

• I really enjoyed this – Classical Composer Reacts to You Enjoy Myself (Phish)
• An important movie. The Caine Mutiny – We watched this at VMI. I didn’t appreciate its message at the time.
• The Big Dig – going to listen to this, at the recommendation of a reader. Infrastructure takes time to build.
• China is Run by Engineers. America is Run by Lawyers. – this is a must-listen.

 

Thank you for reading, and for reading this far. Questions? Please ask.

 

— Jim

434-242-7140

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