2026 Might Be the Year Buyers Get a Turn | Jim's Note December 2025

Jim’s Note. My monthly note where I explore lots of real estate trends and analysis, and other things that make me curious. Interested? Please subscribe here.

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December. This is a market-heavy note. Tuck in, please ask questions, and if you think a friend would find this interesting, please share with them.

This month: gratitude, trust, looking forward, noisy days on market, four things I’m watching, head and tail winds.

First, a reflection of gratitude.

I have a lot to be grateful for: wife, kids, grandkids, shelter, and food. As I’ve aged (not grown up, thankfully), I find it valuable to notice the wins. The things that matter. A recent simple highlight: our girls spent time together one Sunday morning, and my wife and I had time together, and then we met them for brunch. Just the four of us; a rare thing that I’m still thankful for a few weeks later. Little wins matter.

Reminder: I write these notes every month to you, not for realtors or lenders.

It’s a great time to buy or sell! Remember those angering and disingenuous words that Realtor Associations were spamming us with so many years ago? Things like “date the rate, marry the house.”

It might be a great time to buy. It might be a great time to sell. There is no universal advice or guidance. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying to you or selling you something.

But first, security and why you should trust me.

I do this every day, love what I do, and work every day to learn something new that is relevant to my clients. I’m focused on the long-term, not the short. Next year will be my 25th year as a realtor, and while my wife insists I’m never going to grow up, I’d like to think I’ve grown a touch wiser.

I was talking to clients recently about what they might have to do as soon as they purchased their home. They wanted a home. They wanted security. And they weren’t specifically articulating that. I framed it with a question:

The first night you spend here after you close, will you be happy just having pizza or are you going to be thinking about the things the house needs before you will be able to relax?

There is no perfect house. Every house needs something, whether that’s cleaning, painting, a new deck, new roof, new HVAC, updating of kitchens or bathrooms. Every buyer or seller has to decide what is “good enough” or “too much to handle.”

Why Looking Forward Matters More Than Looking Back

Looking backwards is useful to provide context for the future, but only to a degree. Today and tomorrow matter more than yesterday.

2026 will be defined less by what happened in 2025 and more by inventory and demographics than mortgage rates and history. Looking forward.

One of the best quotes I’ve read about nostalgia comes from John Hodgman: “Normally I consider nostalgia to be a toxic impulse. It is the twinned, yearning delusion that (a) the past was better (it wasn’t) and (b) it can be recaptured (it can’t) …”

Key takeaways going forward:

Buyers: Patience may be your friend. But, be prepared to make your decision to buy/not buy efficiently; better to quickly decide not to offer than to see the house go under contract before you’ve made time to see and evaluate the house.
Sellers: More than you may have ever experienced, pricing and preparation matter. Excellent data and market analysis is critical.
Comps: When evaluating homes, we obviously look at sold comps. Now we also look at the withdrawn and expired listings and the active competition that is both under contract or not. Yesterday matters less than today and tomorrow.

Days on Market – used to be noise. Now they matter

During the early days of the Covid market, the timeline was simple:

Prep, photos, floorplans, etc.
Coming soon in MLS on Monday.
Showings start Thursday or Friday
Sellers evaluate the offers on Monday.
Days on market were noise; now days on market are meaningful.
- In Charlottesville + Albemarle from 1/1/2021 to 12/31/2024, 5,038 resale homes went under contract, median days on market were 6 — Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, then under contract on Tuesday.
- Year to date, 1,440 have had ratified contract in the MLS. Median days on market is 12. 653 since 6/1/25. Median DOM is 23; also 23 since 9/1/25.
- 6 to 23 is a huge shift; speed is no longer guaranteed.

Imagine if we had sidewalks and bike lanes.

The market right now

A quick look at this tiny window of resale homes in the MLS from 10/01 to 12/09 in Charlottesville + Albemarle

New listings: 264 this year; 277 last year. Fewer new listings.
New contracts: 259 this year with median days on market of 30 and median price of $517,000. Last year: 261 contracts, 20 days on market, and median price of $528,000.
And the solds, reflecting contract activity about 45-75 days prior. This year: 281 sold, 23 days on market, median price of $552,000. Last year: 272, 14 days on market, $540,000 was the median price.

This is a light “switch.” Literally impossible to use (activate) in the dark.

Four Things I’m watching now and in 2026

De-listings, and anticipating re-listings. We’re seeing more de-listings than I recall ever seeing. 125 withdrawn this year so far. There were 17 last year. Is this a great way to evaluate this segment? I think it’s good enough. If 100 of those 125 come on the market next year, they will meaningfully affect the market, especially if they come on at lower prices.
Price reductions and patience. How motivated might the sellers be? How patient will buyers be now that they have choices and options?
Contracts and days on market. Did you know there’s a movement among a big national brokerage or two to remove public display of days on market? Yeah, insane. How fast do homes go under contract? And how many price reductions are necessary?
New listings: When did they purchase and for how much? This is a big one. For the people whose only experience in residential real estate is setting the price based on what they want/need to make, a market based more on data is a huge shift. Think about it: if you bought in 2017, sold in 2023 and made a big profit and bought another house, and life happens in 2026, you might not be able to sell without losing money. That’s a monumental change, which may lead to lower inventory because these sellers may choose to stay or rent. (What are the sellers’ expectations likely to be?)

2026 quick thoughts

Headwinds:

Sellers’ expectations. Say they bought for $600K in 2002 and are ready to move and want to make $750K in order take the next steps. But their neighbor just came on the market at $699K. What are they going to do? Price at $750K and hope for an offer? Plan to reduce after 30 days? Choose to stay? Can they afford to keep the house, rent it, and buy the next place? Or rent wherever they are going? Related: Sellers’ anchors to high prices.
Buyers: fear is not your friend. Buying for under 3 to 5 years? Might not be the ideal time to buy. If you buy your house for $675K tomorrow, and it’s worth $650K in two months, who cares, if you’re not selling? But if you do need to sell, choices will need to be made. Related: *Where* is the Home, Not Necessarily *What* is the Home
The economy and the lack of data. This is big. We need data. Can you imagine a world without a central database of home listings we use to evaluate home prices? Now imagine that for the American economy.The willful, deliberate, and strategic destruction of data collection and distribution by the federal government is unspeakably damaging and in any other world would be criminal. How is anyone supposed to make reasonable, logical decision in a vacuum? Vibes?

Tailwinds: