Looking at some market data as 2025 comes to a close, and I’m looking forward to hindsight in 2027. Something I’m writing for January’s Monthly Note (subscribe here if you’re curious) is that 2026 may be a market where buyers’ and sellers’ expectations are reset.

tl;dr: the Albemarle County real estate market started slowing in early 2025 and continued the slowdown as the year wore on

Looking only at closed resale homes in Albemarle County so far in 2025

I looked at the data by quarter rather than month because a) we don’t have that much volume, and I don’t like looking at month to month; tracking the market too closely is counter productive.

Median Days on Market by Quarter – 2025

• Q1 2025: 16.5 days (180 sales)
• Q2 2025: 7 days (407 sales)
• Q3 2025: 24 days (319 sales)
• Q4 2025: 26.5 days (272 sales)

The second quarter looks like it was the peak of the market. (keep reading to learn that the first quarter was really the peak) Properties moved at 7 days median, which was the fastest pace all year. Q2 also had the highest transaction volume with 407 closings.

Then things changed, and I felt it (and others did as well). Median days on market more than tripled from Q2 to Q3, jumping from 7 days to 24 days. That shift lines up with the July 2025 market correction we saw in the earlier analysis.

The market stayed a bit slower than we expected through the fourth quarter with median DOM at 26.5 days. Transaction volume also declined significantly in the second half of the year – from 407 sales in Q2 down to 272 in Q4 – down 33%.

The pattern is pretty clear: strong first half with Q2 as the peak of 2025 followed by a fairly significant slowdown that persisted through year-end.

Closed data is more backwards-looking than ratified contract data …

… So I looked at ratified contract data in Albemarle County since the start of 2025

Median Days on Market by Quarter – 2025

Based on Ratified Contract Date

• Q1 2025: 6 days (261 contracts)
• Q2 2025: 12 days (413 contracts)
• Q3 2025: 25 days (283 contracts)
• Q4 2025: 34 days (272 contracts)

The contract data tells a clearer story than the closing data. Q1 was actually the hottest part of the market at just 6 days median DOM. Things started slowing in Q2, doubling to 12 days. Then the market fell off significantly in Q3 (25 days) and continued deteriorating through Q4 (34 days).

Part of the slowdown can be attributed to typical seasonal slowdown, maybe some had to do with the elections, and I’d argue that the regime’s actions are harming the national economy and psychology of real estate consumers.

Contract volume peaked in Q2 at 413 contracts, then dropped 31% to 283 in Q3 and fell another 22% to 220 in Q4. That’s a 47% decline in contract volume from peak to Q4.

The pattern is consistent with what we saw in the closing data, but the contract timing shows the slowdown began earlier than the closings suggested. Properties that went under contract in Q2 (when DOM was already doubling) closed in Q3, which explains why the closing data showed the big shift there.

And, as I was writing this, I read today’s ResiClub email.

These charts from their national real estate agent survey mostly track with what I’m seeing in the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate market.