Happy January. My January Note is below. If you’re interested in getting this note directly to your inbox every month, please subscribe here. If you have any questions about the market or the note, please ask me!
What could go right this year?
That’s how I’m choosing to frame 2026. This is my first Note of the year, and fair warning: it’s market-heavy. I want to level-set expectations for what I’m seeing ahead.
This is my 25th year in real estate. My first home inspection was on 9/11 — I remember the roof I was on when I heard about it.
25 years of doing the same thing the same way? That’s worthless. 25 years of refining, adapting, and staying in the data? Let’s keep having fun.
(note: I’m trying a new thing – a podcast preview of the note. What do you think?)
Where You Choose to Live Matters
My younger daughter, home from college for winter break, was walking home the other day and she passed the Crozet Mudhouse.
She texted me: “I saw a version of us playing chess at Mudhouse. We should play before I go.” I responded that those were some of my favorite memories; she said simply, “me too.”
Where you live matters. How you choose to spend your time matters. Would we have had great memories driving to school or waiting for the bus? Absolutely.
Would she have seen those people playing chess if she were in a car? Nope.
Do we have amazing memories of riding bikes to school and stopping at the Mudhouse to have coffee and chocolate croissants, something we do far less often now that she’s nearly 22?
Yes.
How I’m Reading this Market
I was talking to another agent about what data points I was watching and analyzing – using my brain and AI – to track, understand, and feel the Charlottesville real estate market. I used the question as a thinking and writing prompt.
I find if I’m not manually running the numbers, I’m not feeling the market — sort of like riding my bike up Afton mountain versus driving. I could certainly get to the top faster in my car — with far less suffering, but I wouldn’t feel (and curse at) the headwinds, feel the shifting of the winds, notice the gravel or potholes or smooth bits well enough to safely and quickly handle the descent. I pull the numbers manually so I best feel and understand the market.
If I defer to AI, I’d get the gist, but not the soul or the depth, and I owe my clients the depth of knowledge rather than the surface, or the Clif’s notes version of the market analysis. One key reason I manually run numbers? I know instinctively when a data point is an outlier.
An example – I was looking at what concessions sellers were paying. One home sold last year for $475K; the MLS said that the seller conceded $475K (typical concession might be $3K to $6K). I knew that was wrong. AI is more likely to have just thrown that concession into the conclusions.
That said, I am using Claude to help me create charts and graphs to better describe and explain specific micro-markets to my clients; so far, this practice has been useful.
I’m watching DOM, de- and re-listings, list to sales price ratios, who the agents are, how the resale compares to new.
An example of drilling down that I often do for my clients
In Charlottesville and Albemarle in 2025, 2172 resale homes were listed (this might have duplicates as not every property sells the first time it’s listed.
That’s a lot of homes listed. But — if you’re looking for a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home at least 1800 square feet above grade, with a basement, under two acres ((lower acreage often means closer neighbors), with a garage, between $650K and $750K, there were 6 of those in the City last year. Two sold, three expired and were not re-listed, and one is pending.
In Albemarle County, there were 66 options.
What this means for you
Buyers – Let’s do the work. Figure out what you want, what you don’t want, and get ready to make good decisions. This is the kind of analysis I do for many of my buyer clients. If you’re thinking about 2026, let’s schedule time to map out your specific search parameters.
Sellers – Let’s look at your actual comps — not your wishful thinking, what you want to make, and sometimes, what you need to make. My job is to help my clients make good decisions, and see reality.
Referring to my story above – where do you want to live?
One thing about viewing homes — When you’re looking at homes, assume you’re being watched or recorded. Ring cameras, security systems — they’re everywhere. I had a seller once who texted me commentary during every showing: “I don’t like these people.” “They love it.” “I don’t understand what they mean.”
(related: Amazon Ring Cashes in on Techno-Authoritarianism and Mass Surveillance)
A Market of Shifting Expectations
I see 2026 as a market of shifting expectations — especially for those who bought or sold between 2020 and 2024 — more inventory (we’ve increased inventory in Charlottesville and Albemarle incrementally for the past 9 quarters), and possibly more first time homebuyers.
Quick insight: First two weeks of the Charlottesville real estate market is showing significant buyer activity.
I’m changing the list prices below so as to not specifically identify the properties. I emailed something like this to a buyer client recently who was asking about a property that had been on the market for a while.
RE: the subject. They paid $750K in 2021. Asking price then was $695K. They’re now asking $950K. Their market experience then ? the current market environment.
My instinct says that 2026 is going to to (might be) a market of resetting expectations. These sellers paid way more than they thought they would or probably should have in 2021, and their expectations are that they should be making $200K+ … I’d argue that those expectations are likely in need of adjustment; this property was pulled from the market. (related: Sold Comps Aren’t Enough Anymore — Start With Active and Withdrawn Listings.)
Another property I showed recently — sellers paid $400K in 2021. Recently asking $600K. No improvements made. It’s been on the market for a while. I’d argue that seller needs to see some current and relevant data – not what they want to hear.
And I have also heard about several multiple offer situations.
This is the weirdest market I have yet to be a part of and I’m finding the need to do more data analysis when advising my clients — something I look forward to with each of my clients, to help them and me understand what we’re looking at.
25 years is a long time to do the same thing. Luckily for me and my ADHD, every day is different, as are each of my clients. I’ve represented hundreds of people, and have had a lot of fun along the way. I’d like to think I’ve learned from the many mistakes I’ve made.
A client I worked with last year in their introductory email to me captured what I aspire to be. (bolding is mine). They wrote that they were looking for:
- “A plain-language, straight shooter. I want my agent to be completely forthcoming and honest, but also someone that I have clear, intuitive communication with. I’m looking for someone who can discuss my wants/needs with me, and not get distracted with too many things that don’t fit that bill.
- Reasonably experienced, but not set in their ways. I want someone who knows the market and can advocate/negotiate effectively on my behalf. I also want someone who can lean in on anything I want that might be somewhat non-standard. Bonus points if they have some set of colleagues they can lean on for advice.”
I work every day to represent my clients, to learn, learn from my mistakes, and get better at what I do. 25 years of trying new things, honing, refining, working to improve: I’d argue that that’s a valuable set of skills. I’m not shy about saying, “I don’t know. But I’ll find out.”
In December, I turned 50. And I feel like a kid every day. (my wife says I’ll never grow up; that’s a goal I aspire to)
What Questions do you Have?
Where do you want to live? How do you want to spend your time? These aren’t just real estate questions — they’re life questions. And after 25 years of helping people answer them, I’ve learned that the best decisions come from clear thinking, good data, and honest conversations.
Ask me.
A Fresh Strava Start on 1 January 2026.
How I ended 2025 on my bicycle.
What I’m Reading
- The big regression — “smart” homes really aren’t. Give me my simple thermostat and lights any day.
- What to expect from U.S. existing home sales in 2026, as predicted by 18 different forecast models
- US Housing Outlook – Demand for housing is slowing because of high home prices, high mortgage rates and declining immigration.
- The first time Charlie Chaplin spoke onscreen, he implored the people of the world to resist the rising tide of fascism. Nearly 90 years later, it remains a timely message. (bluesky )
- The uncomfortable truth about getting older: (LinkedIn)
- Shenandoah County’s Housing Study Is a Wake-Up Call We Can’t Ignore (LinkedIn)
- The Housing Market Isn’t Broken. It’s Rigged – Exactly as Designed (LinkedIn)
- It’s time to think seriously about cutting off the supply of fossil fuels
- Agents, please stop doing this with listing photos! (signed, every exhausted buyer) (reddit)
- Correlation between AI and Unemployment in Switzerland (reddit)
- The Strongman Fantasy (substack)
What I’m listening to
- Mike Birbiglia – Stephen Colbert – A Gift from the Comedy Gods
- I’ve taken a break from podcasts – so much news. Lots of the Dead and DMB have been filling my ears on rides.
- Relevant.
— Jim
