March is upon us. If you’re interested in getting this note directly to your inbox every month, please subscribe here. If you have any questions about the market or the note, please ask me! This note led to a loss of a few subscribers, and I suspect it’s because I state bluntly that this current war is bad. The loss of those subscribers is not much of a loss. I’m already working on April’s note. If you’re interested, please subscribe. If you have story ideas or questions, please let me know.
In a shift from previous monthly note archive posts, I’m shifting the order of posts a bit. Leading with the Charlottesville real estate market update. Have a question? Call or text – 434-242-7140
It’s e-bike season. And that matters more than ever.
This month: We’re at war. Safety is relative, birds, and the Charlottesville real estate market.
Riding my e-bike is more relevant, important, and freeing than ever. Every mile I don’t drive is a great mile. If you are looking to buy a home in Charlottesville and want to ride bikes to see homes, let me know.
The Charlottesville Real Estate Market Right Now
If you want to sell, and are willing and able to price correctly to the market, you can sell. Buyers have options now.
This note is going long, so a touch of a preview of April’s note — one of the shifts we are seeing in this market is the paradox of choice. With options, some buyers are finding it harder to commit to that one house. There’s always another house; getting to “good enough” is more difficult in some ways than when there was no inventory.
If you’re buying, do your research, legwork, and preparation. “Good enough” is still good.
Through March 12, 75.7% of resale homes that went under contract in Charlottesville and Albemarle did so within 14 days of listing. In 2025, that number was 62.6%. The median days on market for contracted homes: five days. Price matters. (so does having a great product and great representation).
2026’s YTD (431) is the highest March 14 count since 2020. It’s actually running ahead of 2021–2025 at this same date. That’s a more nuanced story than the full-year chart suggests — the market is seeing more early-season supply than the compressed years. Whether that converts to a stronger full year depends on spring momentum.
The YTD share has shifted. In 2015–2016, roughly 22–26% of the full year’s listings had hit the market by March 14. In 2022–2025 that dropped to the 18–20% range, suggesting listings are either coming later in the year or the spring rush has softened. Worth watching.
The honest unknown: 2026 has no “remainder” bar yet. At the current YTD pace, the full-year projection is ~2,185 — which would make 2026 look like 2025, essentially flat. But 2021’s YTD of 498 through Mar 14 became 2,550 for the year (20% Jan–Mar 14, then strong spring). If 2026 follows a similar seasonal ramp, the number could be higher.
The question — what will the war do to the Charlottesville real estate market in 2026? 2027? 2028?
Cash Sales in Charlottesville and Albemarle
“Will we get a cash offer?” “Are we competing with cash?”
My clients – buyers and sellers – always ask me about cash offers.
Above $1 million, cash is the majority. More than half of all homes sold over $1M in the past year were cash transactions. Above $2M, it’s nearly three in four. Below $500K, roughly one in four. If you’re financing and competing against cash, knowing that context matters.
On Safety
“As long as I’m not stepping over needles to get in my front door, I’m good.”
My client said that as we were discussing parts of Charlottesville that he and his family wanted to live.
“Safety” – real and perceived – is relative. So is distance to that thing that’s important to you.
Many years ago, my client said they wanted to be within walking distance of X. I asked, “what does ‘walking distance’ mean to you?”
Imagine an Australian accent. “Mate, about four to five miles.”
Safety. Distance. Noise. School quality. It’s all relative. My job is to be curious and to ask questions – and encourage the same of my clients.
War
“Should I buy or sell a home right now” might seem trivial in the face of all that we are experiencing, and I’d argue that for that person or that family making those decisions to buy, sell, stay, go, it’s not a trivial question or debate at all.
Q: “Real question – what does a war with Iran change about selling a house? “
A: Honestly, I think people will want shelter more.
The above text exchange with a client happened a few days after America went to war against Iran.
Two arguments about war and the Charlottesville real estate market
Not an “argument” per se, but positions — both of which are right.
- I am (reasonably) scared to make such a huge financial and life decision; I’m going to stay where I am.
- I am (reasonably) scared and want to secure a home for me and for my family and want to buy a house.
Both are valid feelings and perspectives. Both are reasonable, and I have already heard both from my clients – those are not direct quotes obviously, but those are part of what they were saying.
The only thing unreasonable is that we are in a war of choice, and choose to fund war rather than UBI, healthcare, affordable housing, infrastructure, wind and solar projects, or any and everything else of value.
We are all nervous. All on edge. And seemingly powerless.
So we control what we can control.
If you need to sell to move closer to your parents, grandkids, friends, or the mountains, selling might be right.
If you need to buy for the same or other reasons, buying might be right.
Mortgage rates fluctuate. So does the market.
Seeking stability in an ever more uncertain world, housing and the right representation and guidance are more important than ever.
Me? I ride my bicycle outside as often as I can. I run if I must. Being outside is critical for my mental and physical health.
If any of this is resonating — the uncertainty, the timing, the ‘is now the right time’ question — I’m easy to reach; just hit reply.
Birds
I have a client who bought new construction a few years ago. One of the reasons they were looking for a new home – an existing home – is the birds. “I haven’t heard birds in my backyard for three years. My dog has not seen a squirrel!”
New construction is great. The surroundings are important too. I read somewhere that we’re not necessarily looking for balance; we’re looking for harmony. I think that makes sense.
Buyer seeking: Good home on a good lot, with birds.
A Help, not a Hindrance
“You were a help, not a hindrance.”
He said that on the day of his final walkthrough, as the journey, process, whatever you want to call it was coming to an end. He meant it sincerely, meaningfully, and gratefully. He came in nervous – buying a first home is a huge life decision, and he was rightfully questioning everything, and vetting my answers and guidance — as he (and you) should.
He got the right house, and when he saw the survey at closing with the minor, but good-to-know issue discovered on the survey he initially pushed back on, his trust was affirmed.
Look, people are naturally cynical when hiring representation. We work on commission. We get paid when they close.
I advised him to terminate the first contract. This week I’ve advised three buyer clients to terminate contracts. That’s the work. And where the trust is (hopefully) earned.
My favorite review.
Yes, my younger daughter left me a google review.
If we’ve worked together, and you feel like leaving me a review on google or Zillow, I’d be grateful.
What I’m Reading
Real estate & housing:
- Undercover testers — this is from a few years ago, and it’s a must-read/must-understand. Realtors have enormous responsibility as we can shape communities. I referred to this in a meeting last week when I went on a mini-rant about not talking about school quality/crime ratings/etc.
- When Houses Outrun Paychecks: The Lost Decades of Housing Affordability
- Vote for Belonging TodayNorth Carolina’s primaries will decide who writes the rules that shape our neighborhoods.
Broader:
- The stranger secret: how to talk to anyone – and why you should
- This Post Is Not About False Binaries
- The Way We Live in the United States Is Not Normal
- 11 Steps from Your Big Fat Mess to Your Next Draft
- News not Noise, Stay-at-home Macro, Letters from an American, I f*ing love Australia, a Chicano in Paris.
Tech & Privacy
- Leaked Email Suggests Ring Plans to Expand ‘Search Party’ Surveillance Beyond Dogs — no kidding. How anyone is surprised by, or compliant with this, is beyond me.
What I’m Listening To
- Friction Matters: Resistance Is a Feature, Not a Bug — this is great.
- Meredith Whittaker on Who Controls Your Data in the Age of AI — as a consumer – how do you feel about agents recording meetings with AI? Builders recording you in their models?
One day, substack may die. I want my photos to persist
