Not that she needs it, but she deserves credit for presenting an accurate, non-threatening/non-emotional picture of the current real estate market in the Charlottesville/Albemarle region…. That’s about 600 more than at the same time in the hot market of 2005.Making the picture even darker for sellers: average days on market in April was 120, up from just 66 days in April 2005, when sales were blazing…. Taking the list date out of the equation, 1088 residential properties have gone under contract so far this year (just in Charlottesville/Albemarle)There is more accumulated inventory in the market right now. Properties are selling, but at a slower rate that we are used to.* NB: for the month of May, I went only to the 30th rather than 31st for consistency’s sake.* NB: all residential properties are included, including condos.** big note: In this PDF showing inventory history, “Current Inventory” is apparently defined as Active and Contingent properties.
Browsing Category Market statistics
Albemarle’s growth so far this year
Brian Wheeler’s excellent analysis continues. Two things surprise me – 1) Building permits don’t seem to have dropped off in light of the market shift. 2) This year, far more permits have been issued in the development area versus the rural area – a very good thing. Gratuitous endorsement: Brian is running for re-election to the School Board and has done more for transparency in local government than anyone else I can think of.
Buy now in the Charlottesville market or wait?
I am glad to continue renting if sellers are unwilling to lower their prices to account for the fact that the market has changed and real estate prices are unlikely to appreciate much in the near future (see, for example, the recent New York Times aricle entitled “A Word of Advice During a Housing Slump: Rent”)…. I realize that most sellers are probably not going to accept an offer well below their asking price all at once; rather, they are probably going to reduce their asking prices gradually until someone makes an offer reasonably close to what they are asking…. More on assessments at cvillenews.A brief analysis of homes sold in the MLS between $$500k and $600k since the first of the year comparing their sold price to their asking price and the assessed value found, unfortunately, very little consistentcorrelation.Right now, when searching for buyers, I tend to search prices 15%-25% higher than their “comfortable” price range (not the maximum they are pre-approved for, but comfortable) because often, price is not the greatest determinant when sellers are considering offers.The decision of whether to buy now is one that should be made with (far) more consideration than was necessary in the past five to seven years…. With input from our parents, the state of the market right now, the small time frame that we’ll be here in Charlottesville, etc, we just don’t think it’s the best move for us right now.I feel bad because I know that you put in a lot of time and effort for us and we appreciate it very much.
1st Quarter Market Report released for Charlottesville area
The word of the day is “transitional.”My initial analysis from last week is here. When the final report is released by the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors later today I will link to it. Update 04-17-2007: Here it is.Make no mistake, there are an awful lot of buyers out there – they are taking their time, educating themselves and buying smart. Nevertheless, many properties that are well-priced are seeing multiple offers.
1st Quarter Market Report for the Charlottesville area
In this quarter for the CharlAlbemarle Market:From 1 Janurary 2006 to 5 April 2006 in Charlottesville/Albemarle, there were 259 price changes and there were 451 price changes in 2007. There is no way to discern whether these were all price reductions, but a reasonable assumption is that the vast majority of the changes were downward.476 properties (single family, attached and condos) sold in 2006 and 342 sold in 2007.665 went under contract in 2006 and 635 went under contract in 2007.1555 were listed in 2006 and 1216 were listed in 2007.For the entire MSA**:2148 were listed in 2006 and 1850 were listed in 2007.943 went under contract in 2006 and 888 in 2007.715 were sold in 2006 and 532 were sold in 2007.* Source: Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors MLS, whose data is “good enough for now”** Charlottesville MSA = Charlottesville, Albemarle.
Inventory is up in the Charlottesville area
Buyers, Sellers (and Realtors) would do well to take note of this chart depicting inventory numbers for residential properties in Charlottesville and Albemarle. The short analysis: Houses are taking much longer to sell and buyers are being more demanding and patient…. The number of sales, year over year comparison, is almost half that of 2006.*ignore the “months inventory” column for “current 2007” Taking condos out of the mix:All-inclusive – Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna and Greene:From the Wall Street Journal:Large inventories have caused prices to level off or fall modestly in much of the country over the past year or so. The recent surge in defaults on subprime mortgages — loans to people with blemished credit records — has prompted lenders to tighten credit standards.
Even more about Days on Market
While Days on Market does not draw a clear correlation to market value, it can help start the line and add insight into the Seller’s motivation.When I review active listings in a particular market, I look at the days on market before I consider finer property nuances like condition, layout, room count and so on. It provides clues to the upper limit to value, helping define the possible value range of a property whose value we are estimating…. (bolding his)Our MLS is in the process of developing/implementing a “continuous days on market” category to make tracking this data more accurate. Yet, we still have to depend on Realtors (the weakest link), who generally do not recognize the value the MLS data, to input correct information. Understanding the data is one thing; understanding its limitations is another.Side note: I wish our MLS provider would practice the transparency that this MLS provider does; the insights are invaluable.