It may not feel like it due to the significant amount of inventory currently on the market.Between 1 September 2006 and yesterday, 27 January 2007, 1188 properties were listed in the MLS (*975 of the properties listed in 06/07 were not condos and 958 listed in 05/06 were not condos).In that same time period in 2005-2006, 1260 properties were put on the market. Quite simply, homes are taking longer to sell; well-priced homes (priced well from Day 1) are selling. 340 properties were listed from 1/1/5-1/28/2005 and 193 went under contract.532 properties were listed from 1/1/6-1/28/2006 and 207 went under contract.441 properties were listed from 1/1/7-1/28/2007 and 116 went under contractMy fascination with numbers and data confounds me, as I was an English major and have always had an aversion to math…. translated to “How many properties come on the market in Charlottesville/Albemarle?**Doubly inspired to combat the perception that our market is dead in the water.
Browsing Category Market statistics
Charlottesville area listing inventory numbers
Without a way to determine whether these were changes upwards or down, this is honestly a bit of a shot in the dark; my very educated guess is that these price changes in 2007 were more down than up.Witness this new construction property in Crozet that came on the market last June – it started at one million three hundred forty nine thousand and was just reduced to $899,000!—NB: Contrast what follows with what was released in yesterday’s End of 2006 market report:One factor that affects the DOM statistic is inventory…. Including only our MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Fluvanna and Nelson), there are as of 10 January 2006, 1672 properties actively on the market…. For example, there are 184 properties on the market in Madison and Orange Counties – at least 35-45 minutes north and north east of Charlottesville. There are 14 on the market in Rockbridge County (home of my alma mater) – at least an hour and fifteen minutes away (realistically 90 minutes).Less inventory is a good thing, at least in this transitional market.* Albemarle, Charlottesville, Greene, Fluvanna, Nelson* This post was inspired by Rob’s continuous tracking of his market.
Tracking the market too closely?
We won’t know how the market is doing today until we look back from a six- to nine-month removed perspective…. but to get an accurate understanding, we have to look in the rear-view mirror.Most of the analysis is cogent, articulate and informative, but…. Many contracts were written three, four, six months ago. In reality, when analyzing the housing market, one is analyzing the past and attempting to project the future…. Let’s take a breath, step back a bit, read the apocalyptical and rosy projections and determine that reality is probably somewhere in between.Related reading: The Big PictureSeeking AlphaCalculated RiskGranted, most of the analysis is cogent, articulate and informative, but.
Charlottesville Realtor and Marketing Stats
Continuing my ongoing and inconsistent series on the perceived “agent bubble” …Of the top-20 Realtors (based on # of transactions) in the Charlottesville market, only one is not involved with either condos or new construction. (#2 is “Non-MLS Agent)413 have had at least 5 sides.460 have had between 1 and 4 sides.About 350 have not had a single transaction so far this year.226 have more than 10 sides.Side: either a closed listing or a closed buyer-side transaction.In my opinion, selling at least ten sides a year should be the minimum when selecting one’s representation. Regarding marketing with photos:There are 1,979 Active properties on the market today as of 12/18/2006.*70 are flagged as having no photo…. 1524 are flagged as having more than one picture – a huge improvement over last year.Only 169 have a Virtual Tour.
Market alert
Roughly 80,000 subprime borrowers who took out mortgages packaged into securities this year are behind on their payments, the bank says….Predicting losses on these securities is a challenge because there’s little or no historical evidence to show how subprime loans will perform at a time when home prices are falling, says Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Vienna, Va…. found that losses on recent subprime deals could be “in the 6% to 8% range” if home prices are flat next year and could rise to the “double digits” if home prices fall by 5%. Falling home prices could trigger losses not only for investors who bought riskier classes of mortgage-backed securities, but also for some holders of A-rated bonds, according to the report.If only there were a way to discern how many subprime loans had been written in the Charlottesville/Central Virginia market …… Some people are best suited to rent.Rates Fall and Applications RiseToll Brothers reports record lossLocally, Toll Brothers does not have a presence (yet), so take their news for what it’s worth in relation to our market.
Regarding markets
I read an awful lot every day, but typically if a story does not come through my feed reader, I don’t see it. So, thank you for these two interesting stories.First up is this story on the growing movement advocating for equal rights for gays in the workplace…. Referencing my story earlier this week on this subject,Next is this story from Agora Financial showing that the rosy ad campaign by the NAR may just be somewhat biased:) CAAR’s 3rd Quarter Market Report is here (PDF)…. In short, I do not see that as having a significant impact on our local market.
What is sufficient housing
20, the Multiple Listing Service [a database of properties for sale by participating real estate agents] indicated that there is approximately $125 million worth of residential homes for sale in Charlottesville and Albemarle County.This number doesn’t include big farms and estates, properties for sale by owner or other properties not listed in the MLS by discount brokers.Another interesting statistic the MLS revealed is that approximately 350 homes for sale in our area are vacant…. What is a definition of “sufficient housing” upon which government can base their regulations?In Charlottesville/Albemarle – There are currently 190 active properties on the market under $200k…. Between $200k and $250k, 95 homes for sale – 25 of which are condos.Between $250k and $450k, there are 488 properties on the market, only 67 of which are condos…. Yes, a lot of these are vacant (see my stories in October and July) But should we allow some outside force – I assume that your intent is to have the government step in and further regulate the market – to control the nuances of the real estate (or any, for that matter) market?