Possibly Completely Unfounded Market Analysis

Looking at properties in the $600,000 to $950,000 price range, I noted that several homes were still on the market after extensive days on market. From the original asking prices, the prices had been reduced anywhere from $13% to 16%.

Ergo – is it reasonable to conclude that a house that has been on the market in Albemarle County (I’m not looking at any other market) for at least one year should now be “worth” at least 15% less than its original asking price?

Looking at three randomly selected sold properties in Albemarle County in that price range in the past three months, the list-to sell percentage was a bit more stark – 85%, 75%,74% – sold for less than the original asking price.

*Stipulating of course that coming to a conclusion about the entire market from three homes is a bit silly, I’m still trying to ascertain some basic trending information. And that for each house on which I work/study/advise, I do a comprehensive and thorough market analysis that goes beyond days on market and asking/sold prices.

Heck, search for homes in Albemarle between $600k and $950k yourself.

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  1. Cville Buyer February 4, 2009 at 19:10

    How often are “Asking Price” and “worth” really the same? Especially in this market. IMO, the answer to your question is “yes” you should assume the house is worth at least that percentage less than the asking. Probably “worth” a lot less given the market, the economy, nationwide price drops, the big inventory levels. You gotta start somewhere with the market extrapolations. Agents have got to start getting real about this, even if it’s just three properties. Kudos for giving it a shot.

  2. Realtor-Forum February 4, 2009 at 23:35

    The initial listing price seems to be turning into more of a wish than an actual price a buyer will pay anymore. It is surprising to me that the listing price compared to the selling price in your market is so far off, although the average property I deal with is in the low $100k price range. I’ll run a search on a few properties and see if I come up with the same types of numbers.

    Are Realtors not being realistic about listing prices? Are the sellers pushing harder for higher prices?


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