Posts tagged statistics

Comparing 2012 and 2013 – When Do Homes Come on the Market in Charlottesville?

I hadn’t updated this chart in about 18 months, and I was curious … one of the most common questions I get is “when do homes come on the market in Charlottesville?” Typically this question comes in one of three conversations: (I’m going to do a series answering these questions – to be published the next two Wednesdays) –

I’m thinking about putting my house on the market – when does the Charlottesville market start? (short answer: Take pictures now)

I’m thinking abut buying a home in the spring – when do most homes come on the market? (short answer: Fall/Winter is the best time to begin your home search. And an even better time to hire buyer representation so your search process is less frustrating, more efficient and better.)

– I’m curious. What’s the market like? (note the third chart to see what my curiosity led me to)

A few differences between the following charts and the one from January 2011:

– “Charlottesville” = Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson (in 2011 I didn’t include Louisa)

– Only Single Family, Attached and Condos results are included – not “proposed” – meaning not new construction, paper lots, aren’t included

That said –

Let’s look at some numbers. 2011 was interesting, with the new listing bump breaking the traditional mid-year inventory decline right after the start of the autumn school year – a trend that occurs every year.

And 2012?

list-contract-closed-Charlottesville MSA 2012

So … how’s 2013 looking?

– The contract peak was in May of this year versus April of 2012 – As I said in my monthly note recently, the frenzy of the early spring filled with hope and confidence was tempered early.

– Inventory levels for 2013 are pretty much on track – across the MSA – with 2012.

When do homes Come on the market in Charlottesville MSA? 2013

The differentials between 2013 and 2012 are fascinating. Look at the peak in Contracts.

– I’m speculating that the increase in inventory in July/August is due in part because some sellers saw the hope in the market and success their neighbors were having in selling and thought that now would be the right time for them to try to (finally) sell.

Differential - 2013 versus 2012 -When do homes Come on the market in Charlottesville

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Looking in the Rear View Mirror – Previewing the 2nd Quarter 2013 Market Report

objects in the rear view mirror...

When looking at the real estate market (or any market, really) We’re always looking backward, thinking about today and trying to project tomorrow, next year and five years from now.

We’ll be posting tomorrow our 2nd Quarter Market Report for the Charlottesville area, and we’re making final edits and number crunching today.

I’m inclined to echo Bill McBride at Calculated Risk

The “wide bottom” was what I was forecasting several years ago, and now I expect several years of increasing single family starts and completions.”

I think we’re in for at least 18 – 36 months of flatness, once the optimism of early 2013 fades and interest rates increase. Nota bene – The data below may or may not apply to you if you’re currently contemplating buying or selling. This is aggregate data – meaning if you’re looking for a single family home in Ivy with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, the data and brief analysis below also includes affordable new construction in the City of Charlottesville, a $1.2 million home in Ashcroft in the County and everything in between. In other words, if you have specific questions, ask me. I’m a real estate agent .

That said, a few tidbits to whet your appetite for data for Charlottesville and Albemarle (Greene, Nelson, Louisa, Fluvanna coming tomorrow) –

Attached homes in Albemarle and Charlottesville* –

Charlottesville and Albemarle - attached homes 2013

Charlottesville and Albemarle - attached homes 2012

153 attached homes sold in Charlottesville and Albemarle in April, May, June of 2013 versus 107 in that same time frame of 2012 – a 70% increase in volume. A full third – 52 – of the attached homes sold were marked as “new.” (interestingly, only 4 attached homes sold in the Charlottesville MSA in that period).

If you’re looking at new attached homes, be prepared for little negotiation on price. If you’re looking at existing attached homes, be aware that you’re likely going to have more (and sometimes better) options as far as price and yard size.

Single family homes sales in Charlottesville and Albemarle

427 single family homes sold in the 2nd Quarter of 2013 in Albemarle and Charlottesville; 411 sold in the 2nd Quarter of 2012. I’d have been happy with flat sales, but a slight uptick is a good sign. In contrast with the attached home new construction numbers above, only 10% – 46- of closed sales in the 2nd Quarter of 2013 were marked as new construction. From my perspective, single family new home sales felt like they were more, but maybe that’s just because I’m around so much new construction all the time. (and this is a major reason I look at and embrace data over emotion and perception)

Detached home sales - Charlottesville and Albemarle - 2013

Detached home sales - Charlottesville and Albemarle - 2012

What impact will rising interest rates have on buyers?

1 – It will push some to act faster.
2 – It will cause some to not buy.

Looked at another way:

Buyers’ Purchasing Power
Let’s look at an example: A young couple is looking for a home and have predetermined that their budget will only allow them to spend $1,000 a month on a mortgage. At today’s mortgage rate of 4.5%, they could afford a $200,000 mortgage ($1,013 principal & interest). However, if rates jump to 5%, they would have to lower their mortgage amount to $190,000 in order to keep their monthly payment where they need it ($1,020). At 5.5%, the mortgage would need to be no more than $180,000 ($1,022).

The Impact on Prices
This decrease in buyers’ purchasing power will have an impact on home values going forward. We do not believe it will cause a decrease in prices. However, we do believe it will likely cause current rates of appreciation to slow.

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This is why Hindsight is Important (in Real Estate)

It’s easy to use hindsight as a blunt force, but it’s important to note that we’re not going to know whether today’s real estate data reflects a/the sign of market recovery or a positive blip on the chart until we have the benefit of hindsight.

My advice: Be patient, ask questions, be confident, seek competent representation.

From the Speaking of Real Estate blog:

Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies released its annual State of the Nation’s Housing report for 2012 and it very closely tracks comments made by NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun earlier this week at a CRE conference on what’s holding back the housing recovery.

The Harvard report, which always does a good job laying out in plain language what’s happening with the market, points to the increasingly strong market fundamentals and says home sales really could see serious improvement this year.

Sounds pretty ok, right?

And then I see @NickTimiraos from the WSJ tweet:

Harvard JCHS 2006: Fortunately, most homeowners have sizable equity stakes even if they can’t pay their mortgage

The Harvard report from 2006 says (in part):

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Interesting New Market Report – Some Positivity in the (Macro & Micro) Market

One of the best parts of this Housing Prospects 50 States Release March 12 2012

One of the things I said in the Newsplex story is that any market analysis that is broader than a street or neighborhood is too broad to make an informed and educated decision.

Excerpting from the report won’t do it justice; if you’re interested, download the pdf and read it.

The one quibble I would make is that depending on Zillow for local analysis with respect to the Charlottesville MSA is perhaps not the best idea; but from a macro perspective, they’re worthwhile.

Perhaps the best part of the report is this – William Lucy states the need for local analysis and local perspectives. The housing system may be broken, but the solution is not a one-size-fits-all

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Case Shiller Doesn’t Track Charlottesville’s MSA – or – Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter Report

Five year trend of sales activity in the Charlottesville MSA

I’ve said it before. Case Shiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville real estate market summed up in one phrase: it doesn’t exist.

As I said this morning on Google+

So we’re getting ready to widely release Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter 2012 Nest Report … there’s some interesting data and analysis in there.

Combined with the reports I’m hearing from agents about the massive traffic at open houses, I’m thinking that *pockets* of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate markets are likely to see some stability & even price increases this year.

As far as Case-Shiller and the NAR? They don’t track our market. They’re good insofar as they give insight into other markets and their respective psychological impacts are interesting but not particularly relevant to our local market.

Here’s Nest’s 4th Quarter report – (Download your copy of the PDF here)

What we’re seeing is this:

– Buyer activity is up. Way up, over the past few months and years

– Multiple offers on desirable properties are becoming almost common place

– Foreclosures and short sales are going to be with us for a long time

Buyers want to buy. They just don’t want to buy crap or overpriced homes.

– (some) Sellers are becoming more realistic.

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It’s Not about the NAR’s Numbers, It’s about the NAR’s Credibility

I’ve tried to write this story about the National Association of Realtors’ revisions and I can’t seem to write anything new that I or others haven’t said before.

Or more succinctly:

@mortgagereports How will they help? More accurate data is good, but who trusts the NAR? My take is: national is irrelevant,local is crucial

There’s a bit more after the break, but the above sums it up.

And … question everything. Always. I do.

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So What if the NAR Overestimated Home Sales?

What’s old is new again.

The National Association of Realtors says it has overestimated the number of homes sold in recent years and will soon publish revised statistics based on a new benchmarking methodology.

To which I say: so what? I have yet to see relevance in their data, and I have never heard one of my clients reference their forecasts or recaps.

In other words:

If you’re surprised (really?!) the NAR overestimated sales, you haven’t been paying attention for the past decade.#realtors

Calculated Risk said in 2007 about the National Association of Realtors:

I think their forecasting model is broken.

My thoughts then are still relevant.

And CR said noted last week the NAR’s press release which stated:

NAR presently is benchmarking* existing-home sales, and downward revisions are expected for totals in recent years, although there will be little change to previously reported comparisons based on percentage change. There will be will be no change to median prices or month’s supply of inventory. Publication of the improved measurement methodology is expected in the near future.

Earlier this year, I noted that folks paying attention to the national and local real estate markets really need to just ignore the NAR’s numbers.

The National Association of Realtors is a trade organization. Not an unbiased news (heh. do those exist?) organization. Remember that.

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