If you have been reading RealCentralVA for a while, or we’ve talked in person you know that I have been saying for a while that we don’t know what the market is doing and we don’t know what we don’t know.
I was a bit comforted to read that Robert Shiller, the “Shiller” in “Case Shiller” believes the same thing, whether he’s predicting that the (national) housing market is going to get better or worse.
“Statisticians deal with things that repeat themselves. This housing boom and bust is so historic and unprecedented, you can’t forecast the future because you have no comparison.”
The Charlottesville market could be bottoming, could have bottomed or could have a ways to go. We’re all in uncharted territory.
*** Anyone who says definitively or conclusively that the market is X is either (in my opinion) not being honest with you or themselves, selling you something, or doesn’t know the market.