Agent Boom. 2018 Edition

 

*Big thanks to DPOR for the data.

I’ve written this story before. In 2005.

What’s with the agent population?

I wrote something in my most recent monthly note about the state of the Charlottesville market that elicited this response from a friend/client:

Thanks for the (monthly note) note. Interesting enough, I was at a networking function this afternoon and noticed that the number of realtors to other professions was 2:1. Maybe this has been happening for sometime, but I just noticed it today.

My question is, what does one have to do to become a realtor? I saw people today that I haven’t seen in 4 years I’ve been here. Could that be another sign of “there it was”? During the 04-09 period, did you see more people changing careers to become a realtor as time moved closer to 08? Investing in the stock market, I’ve always said the last one to the party is usually the first one out.

Just curious on your thoughts!

# of Newly-Licensed Real Estate Agents in Virginia


My response, in part

There are an unprecedented number of new agents, many of whom have very little training.
Getting licensed in Virginia takes a few more hours now, but the training (which, admittedly, I’ve not taken, as I’m not a new agent, but I’ve talked to new agents) does not contain much practical training. At all.

(FORTUNE Magazine) – JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash …

With training, many can become great. Without training, watch out. NB: Hiring family? Not always the best choice.
Is a “Crash” coming? I don’t know. I don’t think so. But I think a correction is underway. When agent numbers start skyrocketing because the market is doing great, I think that’s a sign that something is coming.
# of Licensed Real Estate Agents in Virginia

Tangentially related

Response to a client about the state of the market:

You nailed it. You’re one of at least three clients this year who are buying and selling in about two years, and not losing money … and one of several who’ve done that in under 5 years.
My mom used to say, when I started practicing in 2001, that if you buy and sell in ~5 years and don’t lose money, you’ve done well. That so many are doing that in a shorter timeline and  not losing their shirts is … a sign of something.
We are in interesting times, folks.
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  1. Pingback: Monthly Note Archive | No Garages = More Friends, the Market, Impactful Learning - RealCentralVA.com

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