Regarding cancellations, via Calculated Risk:New home sales rose a surprising 4.1 percent in August — May, June and July sales were revised down — while existing home sales showed a scant 0.5 percent drop. The reports inspired comments (hope?) that housing might be stabilizing….Simply put, cancellations are rising, and they aren’t being captured in the aggregate statistics because of the way the survey is designed. Hence, sales are being overstated and inventories understated….We know from big builders that cancellation rates are rising. Seiders says the rate “has roughly doubled over the last year” and is “more serious at the big companies.”Here is one of the primary differences between the CharlAlbemarle/Central Virginia market and the rest – we have only one big builder (Ryan Homes) in our market.
Posts Published by Jim Duncan
Monday Links 10-02-2006
Can the government protect exotic-borrowers from themselves? Doubtful. The market and the intrepid borrowers will always find irresponsible ways to manage money.An 8-point review of a home, from an inspector’s point of viewBroadband is a drawback to rural living.
Charlottesville has changed
Just a little bit. via Digg.
Always fearful
The time between being asked for a quote in the press and reading what I said is always a time of nervous anticipation…. Because unless I am the author, I am never 100% certain that what I say will be said in context. The risk of contributing to the culture of fear being propagated by the media is quite significant. After speaking with Jason Jacks with the DP on Friday, all I could think about was whether he would print my initial, flippant response to his first question…. Would have been either a substantial gaffe or a great headline – or both.The morals of the story? For me – think before I speak/act. 1) For everybody else – Expecting 10-20% appreciation year over year is a wholly unreasonable expectation.2) Read lots of news. Come to your own conclusions rather than forming an opinion based on one quote or one story is irresponsible.
The worst in history?
Today’s hyperbolic statement comes from, ironically enough, that venerable hard news source – the Today Show. Normally, I watch CNBC and the wife watches NBC. Unfortunately, no Squawk Box on Saturdays. Lester Holt’s (I think that’s correct) teaser was – “Today’s housing market is the worst in history,” and then proceeded to tease a cell phone service that would help you sell your house…. The worst in history? I don’t buy it. Not what it used to be?… Do your own due diligence; two-minute segments on network TV typically don’t provide the thorough analysis needed to assess the housing (or any) market.
Required reading for sellers
This article from today’s Wall Street Journal (paid link) is direct, cogent and simple; simple in a good way. Finding an article in the big media about today’s changing market that provides good information that is not written from a fear-mongering frame of mind is rare…. A few select quotes:Sellers are also being told to cut prices aggressively if their house isn’t moving — or risk chasing the market downward….Waterford Development Corp…. If the price drops, the company says it will write the buyer a check for up to 15% of the original sales price, not including the value of any optional upgrades…. says he has begun checking multiple-listing service data every week or two instead of once a quarter to see how recent sales compare with deals that closed three and six months ago. “Things can change…very quickly,” he says….Another approach is a personal plea. (She) encourages clients to court prospective buyers with a letter explaining the intangibles that make their home and neighborhood so appealing, such as the fact that the kids on the block trick-or-treat at Halloween together. During the height of the housing boom, some brokers were encouraging the same type of personal notes — but from buyers eager to get their bid accepted….My, how things have changed. I will still write letters presenting my buyers to the sellers (and perhaps now from my sellers to the buyers) – the business remains about people, hot market or not.While I read this article in print this evening, the Housing Bubble blog brings its spin to the conversation.
Albemarle County Development Survey
If you don’t speak up, no one will listen.As of today, about 300 surveys have been completed. The Albemarle County Development Review Survey has been out since 18 September. It is a survey designed to give the special Task Force and thereby the Board of Supervisors (BoS) input into the development process and the efficiencies/inefficiencies inherent in the process. Note: It’s not a referendum on growth! I have received emails from the Sierra Club, Free Enterprise Forum, Piedmont Environmental Council (if I recall), and a couple of on-the-ball readers. Not to mention Albemarle’s excellent A-Mail program.Seriously, take the survey. With about 84,000 residents, probably 75% of whom have internet access (~65,000 people) 300 responses (0.46%) is mighty paltry. That’s a pretty meager response rate for a populace that professes great concerns about the growth process.