Only two of these national homebuilders have presence in the Greater Charlottesville real estate market, Ryan Homes (NVR) and K Hovavian (HOV), while Toll (TOL) have been rumored to be poised to make a move in the near future.Everyone knows that business cycles oscillate from boom to bust every so many years, and real estate is not unique in this regard…. It’s not just a matter of saying “real estate stocks are down” — it’s more that they’re down, in a roughly correlated manner, over a meaningful common time period.Since 31 December, 2004:Since 2003:What’s next?… More on this in next week’s post about the first year’s market stats.We all know that what goes up must come down; will that which goes down come back up? I suspect so.For an even more interesting graphical display, as well as a cogent analysis, this time one of the subprime market, check out Fortius One’s “Exploring a Slice of Subprime Space” post.
Browsing Category Market statistics
Home Sales down in Charlottesville – expanded
I was going to wait until mid-June to run the numbers for the numbers for the Charlottesville-area real estate market, but it’s like someone put out a press release or something, as the same story is now seen across the local Charlottesville media…. And sales so far this year are down more than 7 percent when compared with the first five months of 2006.That drop is better than the statewide trend. Across Virginia, May sales were down by 16 percent and year-to-date sales were down more than 10 percent.Two notes -1) Looking solely at Year over Year numbers conveys a sense of liquidity about the real estate market – something that was never intended to be. Housing has always had intrinsic value as well – much more so than stocks or bonds.2) I broke condos out of the below numbers because the condo segment of the market has always been argued as providing an affordable sustainability to the market.In Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa and Nelson, May 2007 – 339 homes sold, 40 of which were condos.May 2006 – 414 homes sold, 67 of which were condos.May 2005 – 409 homes sold, 41 of which were condos.May 2004 – 355 homes sold, 25 of which were condos.
Real estate Sunday in the Daily Progress – a deeper look at the housing numbers
The DP, Charlottesville’s biggest daily newspaper, has quite the real estate focus today:Prices put dream of homeownership out of reachFlight from high prices costs in road woesHigh housing prices hit city in rankingsHousing boom benefits but wages still lag(All stories on one page)A point of clarification and expansion referencing this (I don’t know why I am taking on the ombudsman role today):In response to the affordable housing issue, Phillips said, the real estate industry has built more moderately priced condominiums and town-houses…. Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna and Greene, there are 476 condos or attached properties active on the market, 329 of which are priced under $300k, 151 are under $200k and 38 are under $150k. Breaking the numbers down a step further to what I believe is a reasonable requirement for many, if not most:Of all attached/condo properties on the market, with at least three bedrooms:Under $150k: 0Under $200k: 1Under $250k: 2Under $300k: 6Another clarification:The region’s homes-for-sale inventory is also increasing, giving buyers more choices and slightly lower prices. There are currently 3,443 active listings in the region, representing a three-fold increase over three years ago.In Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson, there are actually 2,581 properties on the market.
FSBOs in Charlottesville?
But, a couple of readers emailed me the article, so I feel obligated to comment (and I am grateful for that obligation – thank you for reading)The study (pdf) is less a story of how much more unrepresented sellers sell their homes for than those who choose to hire a Realtor, and more about the effects of a viable alternative to the MLS, which is currently the best way to market a home.We focus on the city of Madison, Wisconsin, where a single web site (fsbomadison.com) has become the dominant for-sale-by-owner platform.A few thoughts:1…. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) argues that Realtors provide valuable help with setting the listing price, preparing the house, checking potential buyers’ qualifications, showing the house, bargaining the terms of the deal, and handling the paperwork.5…. Maybe the best “by owner” site in Charlottesville is c-villebyowner, but their market share remains infinitesimal.In the Charlottesville area real estate market, some neighborhoods are more likely to be successful for those who choose to represent themselves in the sale of their homes – those that are fairly cookie-cutter and high-traffic neighborhoods may be better candidates than those that are not, but why would someone want to limit the number of people to whom they market their most valuable asset? What about the pictures?By the way, the study is outdated.The study found, however, that homes listed with agents sold more quickly — with a 25 percent probability of selling within 60 days versus a 16 percent probability for FSBO-advertised homes.The average days on market in the Charlottesville area, right now, is trending between 74 and 106 days.
Turtle Creek condo market update
I am currently marketing a condo in Turtle Creek*, have been for a couple of months and through a couple of price reductions (the most recent of which was a $10k reduction yesterday)…. I continue to think that Turtle Creek remains a wise purchase, primarily from a quality of life perspective – it is well-located, generally well-run and perhaps most importantly, well-built (and it’s not a condo-conversion).This year, 26 condos have come on the market…. 7 went under contract in that timeframe.In 2005, 9 condos came on the market between 1 January and 1 June and 6 went under contract. In 2004, 11 condos came on the market between 1 January and 1 June and 10 went under contract.Notice a trend?* I generally do not discuss properties I am marketing, but this one fits in line with the greater real estate market in Charlottesville, and the condo market specifically.
Charlottesville MSA real estate still appreciating
Albeit slowly.
Nearly mid-year market data for Charlottesville and Albemarle
Not that she needs it, but she deserves credit for presenting an accurate, non-threatening/non-emotional picture of the current real estate market in the Charlottesville/Albemarle region…. That’s about 600 more than at the same time in the hot market of 2005.Making the picture even darker for sellers: average days on market in April was 120, up from just 66 days in April 2005, when sales were blazing…. Taking the list date out of the equation, 1088 residential properties have gone under contract so far this year (just in Charlottesville/Albemarle)There is more accumulated inventory in the market right now. Properties are selling, but at a slower rate that we are used to.* NB: for the month of May, I went only to the 30th rather than 31st for consistency’s sake.* NB: all residential properties are included, including condos.** big note: In this PDF showing inventory history, “Current Inventory” is apparently defined as Active and Contingent properties.